MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Ft. Lauderdale.
UFC Ft. Lauderdale takes place Saturday at BB&T Center in Sunrise, Fla. The main card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN2.
Ronaldo Souza (26-6 MMA, 9-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 39 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: KO win over Chris Weidman (Nov. 3, 2018)
- Camp: Fusion X-cel Performance (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former Strikeforce middleweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 8 KO victories
+ 14 submission wins
+ 18 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Heavy right hand
^ Throws well off feints and shifts
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Favors takedowns along fence
+ Dangerous in transition
^ Superb scrambles and back-takes
+ Slick submission setups
Jack Hermansson (19-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach:77.5″
- Last fight: Submission win over David Branch(March 30, 2019)
- Camp: Frontline Academy (Sweden)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Wrestling base
+ 11 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Long and accurate jab
+ Hard leg and body kicks
+ Strong clinch game
^ Dirty boxing, trips, takedowns
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Works well from front-headlock
+ Active and attacking guard
+ Superb ground striker
Point of interest: Aggresive assaults
The main event in Ft. Lauderdale features an impromptu matchup of aggressive middleweights.
Signing up for fights almost as fast as he starts them, Jack Hermansson has a pension for bringing a breakneck pace as of late.
Working behind the bounce in his step, Hermansson will pressure his opponents with fakes and feints, gathering his distance through prodding jabs. Once finding his range, Hermansson has little issue launching his right hand in the form of overhands or uppercuts.
The Swede also wields a solid left hook when coming forward but arguably throws it better as a check, which could come in handy against the aggressive nature that his Brazilian counterpart brings to the table.
A marauding, athletic phenom who has consistently improved his striking since his days on the Strikeforce scene, Ronaldo Souza can truly call himself a multi-dimensional threat.
Steadily stalking his prey with palpable pressure, Souza will use feints to bait opponents into exchanging with him. Once able to get a bite, he will typically unleash his patented counter cross or change his level to shoot for a takedown. Souza also occasionally shifts to southpaw when he needs to, often accompanying this move with a check hook for safety.
When sensing he has someone hurt, the 16-year veteran has no problem letting his hands fly liberally, varying in between uppercuts and hooks along the way. In Souza’s last couple of outings, he appeared to have a bit more volume and variety to his form, incorporating more kicks and body shots than before.
Still, the pressure that Souza brings usually comes with a tangible price tag to go along with the gas that it requires, which means that this battle should get even more intriguing the longer it goes.
Next point of interest: Mission for top position
Point of interest: Mission for top position
With grappling from topside being both men’s strong suit, the battle for top position will be even more crucial than usual.
Though not carrying the same grappling accolades as his counterpart, Hermansson will probably be the more pronounced wrestler (and possibly the stronger party) here on paper.
Coming from a solid base in Greco-Roman wrestling, Hermansson has a nice variety of trips and tosses he looks to set up whenever he is not unloading in the dirty boxing department. Keen on upper-body attacks, Hermansson works well from the body lock while using slick foot sweeps for assists.
The nine-year pro also appears to have solid wrestling defense from his use of whizzers to his overall ability to scramble to safety. Nevertheless, whether Hermansson is looking to attack offensively or smother when in close, I will be curious to see how he stacks up against the not-so-underrated wrestling ability of “Jacare.”
Souza, who was already an athletic standout as a jiu-jitsu competitor, smartly sharpened his wrestling chops throughout the years, melding his grappling style into one solid sword.
A natural when it came to understanding technique, it was the wrestling and athleticism of Souza that often elevated him amongst his contemporaries in the first place. Now, over a decade later, you almost forget that the Brazilian ever wore a Gi with the way in which he translated his no-Gi game into MMA.
Whether he is shooting a reactive takedown in the open or hitting a double-leg against the fence, Souza is smart about when to close distance. However, I suspect that he may stick to his higher-percentage attempts against the cage given his counterpart’s wrestling acumen.
Souza may be a grappling stud, but ending up underneath Hermansson will be the last place he wants to be in this fight.
Although his title of ‘best ground-and-pounder’ is a self-proclaimed one, it is far from a joke for Hermansson. A superb transitional grappler, Hermansson is a heavy top-player who can seamlessly ride and pass under the guise of unforgiving ground strikes – a process that has helped him secure victories over credentialed black belts.
Still, not all Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts are created equal in MMA, and there may be no better example of that than Jacare. Even when watching him grapple with a Gi on, you could easily see why Souza would make his plunge into the mixed martial arts scene.
Effortless floating to and from his favored base of operations that is the half guard, the 39-year-old will exercise his options like a kid in a candy store. Whether Souza is using a kimura to advance to side control or a head-and-arm choke to cut to mount, Hermansson will likely be in quicksand should he find himself this deep into the Brazilian’s game.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinion
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former Strikeforce champ, listing Souza -200 and Hermansson +170 as of this writing.
Given the name value differential, as well as the fact that Hermansson is taking this fight on short notice, I would not be surprised to see the betting lines inflate further in Souza’s favor come Saturday. That said, Hermansson’s chances still have to be respected here. He is fresh off a quick finish over David Branch that saw him take no damage, which means he is not exactly coming off the couch for this one.
If Souza sleeps on the skills of his European counterpart, he could find himself in trouble if he fails to finish the fight in the early rounds and ends up moving forward on fumes again. Hermansson can start fast, but he also can keep his pace and pressure fairly consistent down the stretch (even showing the ability to overcome adversities when he needs to).
I’ve been a big fan of Hermansson since his Cage Warriors days and am glad he’s getting some shine on the big stage, but I’m not sure I necessarily like the opportunity at hand. Unless Hermansson’s able to hurt his veteran foe with a hard shot standing or consistently control him in the clinch, then I can’t help but side with Souza to win out grappling scrambles and be the more damaging party in striking exchanges – earning himself a stoppage victory come Round 2.
Prediction: Souza inside the distance
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