Sunday night in Liverpool, the UFC will be in town for UFC Fight Night 130. No. 1 welterweight contender Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson will take on Darren Till in a key main event battle for the 170-pound division.
Till is the homestanding fighter in this showcase, but he’s already dropped the ball as a host. On Friday, he missed weight and can’t weigh over 188 pounds the day of the fight, or else Thompson could pull out of the bout. If all goes well with the scales, the bout will go on as planned, but expect Till to get some serious side eye from UFC officials and some fans throughout the weekend.
Let’s take a look at the full card, odds, predictions, and DraftKings picks for Sunday’s show.
| Matchup | Weight Class | Odds | Predictions | DraftKings |
| Elias Thedorou ($9400) vs. Trevor Smith ($6800) | Middleweight | Theodorou -400, Smith +300 | Theodorou by DEC | |
| Gillian Robertson ($7300) vs. Molly McCann ($8900) | Men’s Flyweight | McCann -175, Robertson +145 | Robertson by SUB | Robertson |
| Carlo Pedersoli ($8900) vs. Bradley Scott ($7600) | Welterweight | Pedersoli -170, Scott +140 | Pedersoli by DEC | |
| Lina Lansberg ($8500) vs. Gina Mazany ($7700) | Women’s Bantamweight | Mazany -140, Lansberg +110 | Lansberg by DEC | Lansberg |
| Daniel Kelly ($7200) vs. Tom Breese ($7500) | Middleweight | Breese -360, Kelly +270 | Breese by TKO | Breese |
| Eric Spicely ($8700) vs. Darren Stewart ($7500) | Middleweight | Spicely -170, Stewart +140 | Spicely by SUB | |
| Claudio Silva ($7100) vs. Nordine Taleb ($9100) | Welterweight | Taleb -360, Silva +270 | Taleb by TKO | |
| Jason Knight ($8300) vs. Makwan Amirkhani ($7900) | Men’s Featherweight | Knight -165, Amirkhani +135 | Amirkhani by TKO | Amirkhani |
| Arnold Allen ($9200) vs. Mads Burnell ($7000) | Men’s Featherweight | Arnold -235, Burnell +185 | Allen by TKO | |
| Neil Magny ($9500) vs. Craig White($6700) | Welterweight | Magny -650, White +425 | Magny by SUB | Magny |
| Stephen Thompson ($8400) vs. Darren Till ($7800) | Welterweight | Thompson -125, Till -105 | Till by DEC | Till |
Biggest Favorite
Craig White stepped in as a replacement for Gunnar Nelson, who was originally scheduled to face Neil Magny in the co-main event. An injury forced Nelson out, and now Magny has the biggest mismatch on the card. As a minus-650 favorite, Magny has some pressure to perform. Anything short of an impressive victory via stoppage will be underwhelming from the UFC veteran.
Live Dogs
I have three underdogs from the card getting wins. I like Gillian Robertson’s chances of taking her fight with Molly McCann to the ground and winning by submission. Likewise, Lina Lansburg has a great shot at beating Gina Mazany. Lansberg’s only losses have come to Cyborg and Aspen Ladd.
Mazany isn’t likely on either of those fighter’s level. Lansberg has excellent striking and she’s deadly in the clinch.
The best underdog on the card is Makwan Amirkhani. He has the talent and presence to be a superstar, but he’s coming off a long layoff ahead of his battle with Jason Knight. Mississippi Mean is a tough assignment, but I love Amirkhani’s grappling and dynamic striking to earn him a win.
Fighters To Stay Away From in DraftKings
Elias Theodorou is the second-most expensive DraftKings fighter on the card, but that isn’t an investment that figures to pay off. He’s a huge favorite to defeat Trevor Smith on the Fight Pass prelims, but Theodorou hasn’t scored a victory by stoppage in three years.
Smith is a tough veteran who won’t be easy to dispose of inside three rounds. Theodorou will almost certainly win, but I’m not seeing a wealth of fantasy points from him in this one.
Must Haves in DraftKings
White is an explosive fighter making his UFC debut and also from England. He’s won four in a row and all of the victories have come by way of stoppage. He’s also coming in as a late replacement. It seems like a recipe for an aggressive fighter, which could play right into Magny’s hands.
He’ll have a four-inch height advantage and he’s a master at using his length. Magny’s jab should be a key weapon and once the bout goes to the ground, only a few have gotten the better of him in the grappling department.
Thompson-Till Is The Swing Bout for DK
Because only $600 separates the DK salaries of Stephen Thompson and Darren Till, whoever wins the top DraftKings contests will almost certainly have to draft the winner of the main event. The fight has the closest odds and only one bout (Amirkhani-Knight) has a smaller discrepancy in DK salary.
So, who’s going to win?
It really is a toss-up between two elite stand-up fighters. I’m leaning toward Till for a few reasons. One, he’s the younger or the two. As dynamic and fit as Thompson is, he’s still 35 years old and Till is 25. Also, let’s not forget, Till is fighting at home. Home Octagon advantage isn’t everything, but it’s something.
Lastly, Till missed weight, which has worked out well for the over-the-limit fighter recently. Most recently, a grossly over-the-mark Mackenzie Dern made quick work of Amanda Cooper at UFC 224. Till is already a big and strong welterweight. If he’s 188 pounds or heavier when the fight starts, he should have a pretty big advantage in size and power.
