MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 296.
UFC 296 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on ESPN+.
Leon Edwards (21-3 MMA, 13-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision win over Kamaru Usman (March 18, 2023)
- Camp: Team Renegade (Birmingham, England)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC welterweight champion
+ BAMMA welterweight title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good lateral footwork
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Hard head and body kicks
+ Superb clinch game
^ Grip awareness, elbows off the break, etc.
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Solid defensive and offensive fundamentals
+/- 4-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws
Colby Covington (17-3 MMA, 12-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 35 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Jorge Masvidal (March 5, 2022)
- Camp: MMA Masters (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC interim welterweight titleholder
+ 2x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler
+ Pac-10 wrestling champion
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
^ Well-conditioned athlete
+ Improved overall striking
^ Footwork, combos, head movement
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ Chains attempts, constantly re-wrestles
+ Tremendous top game
^ Solid wrist-rides and positional awareness
+/- 5-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws
Point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw
The main event for UFC 296 features a welterweight title fight between two southpaws, Leon Edwards and Colby Covington.
Although the southpaw vs. southpaw pairing typically presents some problems in the form of discomfort and defense (given that most southpaws predicate their games against orthodox opposition), I’m not sure how much of a factor it will be for either fighter considering both their records in these types of affairs and the dynamic of the overall matchup.
Technically unbeaten against southpaws on paper (clocking in at 5-0 officially), Covington has been working hard to improve his striking since stepping onto the UFC scene.
From not crossing his feet to resetting his angles on the outside, Covington has displayed the ability to create lanes for his favored kicks and crosses off of his power side – shots that were often set up by his jab.
Since parting ways with American Top Team, Covington has since built upon said skills at MMA Masters. The 35-year-old standout will still occasionally roll under his crosses, but now Covington will typically do so while stepping through into an orthodox stance to set up power from that side.
Covington also appears to be more content to fight off the back foot in his last couple of contests, showing an improved countering acumen. The former interim titleholder can still sneak in savvy uppercuts in exchanges, demonstrating a more diversified shot selection overall (especially when pressuring forward).
That said, high-volume or pressuring approaches often come with a cost, as Covington will need to be mindful of his English counterpart’s potential counters.
A slick, diverse striker who can counter or come forward with effect, Edwards’ pairing of speed and accuracy helps him cover a lot of ground in regards to gaining respect.
Working behind a deceptive jab that he often uses to check his opponents, Edwards keeps powerful left crosses and kicks at the ready, occasionally sprinkling in sneaky teeps and explosive knees to intercept oncoming level changes. The Englishman also doesn’t mind throwing a shot away in order to land another, as Edwards seems perfectly fine with making adjustments on the fly.
Whenever his opponents offer up straight shots down the center, Edwards has a knack for countering over the tops of their shoulders. And when they decide to hook hard or launch power from the rear, Edwards is quick to suffocate their efforts by initiating the clinch and applying his patent close-quarter-combat tactics.
Even though I see Edwards’ left elbow having some play in this fight, the distance he likes to launch it at will likely invite a very sticky customer.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering the crux of Covington’s game, winning the wrestling will likely be paramount for the challenger this Saturday.
Whether we’re talking about singles or doubles, Covington has a ton of entries he can chain to and from when looking to achieve his takedowns.
Film Study of Colby Covington's Entries
How he enters into double legs, knee picks, single legs and body locks
Thread 🧵🪡
(1/17) pic.twitter.com/JvAYIzZjXr
— 9h6st21 (@9h6st21) December 13, 2023
Although I think his best chances will likely come from reactionary shots in the open, Covington’s propensity to put his head opposite of his opponent’s power side will likely serve him well when trying to enter on a counter fighter like Edwards.
Edwards, who is far from a pushover in the wrestling department, has made some sizable upgrades to his game throughout his UFC tenure.
Initially identified as a striker when first stepping onto the UFC scene, Edwards put a sizable emphasis on his wrestling after losing a close split decision in his promotional debut. Since then, we have seen Edwards surprise better on-paper grapplers with suffocating clinches and well-timed trip takedowns that allow the Englishman to counter offensive efforts and win rounds in the process.
https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1369769711014047746
Edwards also likes looking for the back, but – as seen in the tweet above – is just as happy playing the role of a positional rider and grinding things out with crafty controls and other forms of attritional warfare.
Nevertheless, Covington also bears similar controls and positional flows that Edwards will need to be aware of should he find himself on the bottom. In Edwards’ defense, he has shown solid responses when he does have to work from negative positions on the mat.
The 12-year pro knows how to read a scramble in the heat of battle, as well as appropriately fight hands and use the fence to stand. Edwards is also very capable when it comes to guard retentions – I’m just not sure Covington is the kind of fighter to play that game with.
A talented grappler from topside, Covington uses everything from wrist-rides to leg and lever disruptions to break an opponent’s balance and spirit. Whether he is spiraling out the base of those who try to stand or striking them with impunity from positional rides and pins, Covington is steadily becoming a master chef when it comes to cooking his counterparts underneath him.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Despite the oddsmakers opening the challenger as the favorite, public money has flipped the betting lines in the champion’s favor, listing Edwards -160 and Covington +124 as of this writing.
Even though British fans are well known for backing their fighters at the betting window, I can’t say that they are alone in this line swing in Edwards’ favor.
Don’t get me wrong: as someone who seldom picked against Covington, I can totally understand the logic behind siding with the American.
Not only is Covington more skillful than his detractors give him credit for, but the former interim champion has also shown the stamina and staying power that can sway matchups – even at the highest level.
If Covington can successfully navigate striking space and force his type of grinding fight on the champion, then we’ll likely see Edwards’ mental and physical strength firmly tested. That said, I still cannot help but like the Englishman’s chances to retain his title.
Aside from proving me right last time out by picking him to win by decision due to his counter-clinching abilities, Edwards also proved that both he and his team can learn from the past via the incorporation of sound tactics.
Whether we’re talking about the bodywork read Edwards acquired on Usman or his hand-fighting discipline, the champion has already proven the possess some proverbial kryptonite to Covington’s game (e.g. Covington’s propensity to eat left-sided strikes and body shots to a gassed Jorge Masvidal being able to 2-on-1 grip his way out of every bad position in his last outing).
Whether Covington gets back to selling out on pressure or continues to mix in a backfoot countering approach, I suspect that Edwards will still be able to make his reads and tax the American with everything from check hooks to uppercuts and knees.
The pick is for Edwards to force a stoppage by strikes come the fourth round.
Prediction: Edwards inside the distance
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 296.
