MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 287.
UFC 287 takes place Saturday at Miami-Dade Arena in Miami. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Alex Pereira (7-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 79″
- Last fight: TKO win over Israel Adesanya (Nov. 12, 2022)
- Camp: Teixeira MMA & Fitness/Glover’s Garage (Danbury, Conn.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC middleweight champion
+ 5x Glory middleweight champion
+ Glory light heavyweight title
+ Pro kickboxing record: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)
+ Amateur kickboxing record: 25-3
+ Kickboxing black belt
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
^ Superb proprioception and accuracy
+ Devastating left hook and right cross
^ Times splits and counters well
+ Dangerous knees up the middle
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations
+ Limited but serviceable grappling game
Isarel Adesanya (23-2 MMA, 12-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: TKO loss to Alex Pereira (Nov. 12, 2022)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 15 knockout victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Superb feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+ Active and attacking guard game
+/- 2-0 in MMA rematches
Point of interest: A history of violence
The main event for UFC 287 features a rematch for the middleweight title between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya.
As I laid out in my in-depth breakdown ahead of their last meeting at UFC 281, these two have a history of violence that dates back to their days on the kickboxing circuit, where Pereira managed to win both occasions.
Their first fight was a competitive contest that I scored for Adesanya, but the judges ended up awarding the fight to Pereira for his impactful punches in the first two frames. Their rematch, which went down roughly a year later, saw Pereira steal victory from the jaws of defeat after a suspect standing eight count that allowed “Poatan” to come back and score an emphatic knockout for the win.
Following this affair, Adesanya focused on his MMA career and won multiple titles, while Pereira stayed in kickboxing to further perfect his craft and accrue accolades in different divisions. But after seeing the success Adesanya was achieving in the UFC, it wasn’t long before Pereira eventually followed suit and decided to make MMA his focus.
The two former kickboxers inevitably met last year at UFC 281, and the showdown did not disappoint.
Although many are repeating their mistakes from the Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman series in regards to writing off a fifth-round knockout as some sort of fluke, Pereira proved to be incredibly competitive from the first round on.
Despite both fighters having a knack for countering kicks, they decided to test each other in the low kick department early and often. Pereira appeared to land the more thudding offerings (as he tends to do), but Adesanya was able to counter him hard toward the middle of the round to give the then-challenger some second thoughts.
Pereira eventually got Adesanya toward the cage with some hard body kicks and looks from his lead hand, forcing the then-champion to clinch. The Brazilian was able to land the better shots in closed quarters and force a favorable separation, but Adesanya beautifully punctuated the round with a right hand that rocked Pereira.
Adesanya’s biggest success in the fight came at the end of the 1st round when he hurt Alex badly & might’ve finished him if he had more time on the clock.
Israel was, as Israel does, sniping his opponent with singular jabs (in & out). He made Alex accustomed to jabs coming 1/5 pic.twitter.com/iGvuSfsz2O
— Fedor’s nephew (@FdrNphw) November 13, 2022
Even though Pereira was arguably saved by the bell, the former Glory double champ – as he did in his second fight with Adesanya – came out for the next round recharged and ready to go.
Pereira was able to immediately corral Adesanya toward the cage, but the City Kickboxing product managed to stymie some of Poatan’s intentions with hand traps that allowed him to set up a solid right hand off of a clever frame. That said, it didn’t take Pereira long to get back to his underrated jab.
Pereira’s jab was a big weapon for him, especially when he had Adesanya against the cage. His jerky head movement and consistent pumping of the lead hand meant Isreal struggled to predict what was coming next and would often be caught off guard by Pereira’s quick, snappy jab pic.twitter.com/UDNCm6eBTm
— Ted (@tedbratby) November 14, 2022
Not only did Pereira’s jab appear to command Adesanya’s respect, but it also helped him open up his arsenal en route to securing the second round.
Adesanya was able to land another sneaky cross by framing off his jab in the third, but Pereira was able to reestablish the initiative and pressure the New Zealand native back toward the fence. Pereira then appeared to hurt Adesanya to the body with a brutal knee off a hook reset and immediately went back to the midsection as if he smelt blood.
Unfortunately for Pereira, the Brazilian got over-excited and out of position before going for an improvisational takedown that cost him big.
Landing on his back, Pereira was forced to exert a ton of energy wrestling back to his feet, allowing Adesanya to secure positions off of wrist rides and score with enough strikes to clearly earn him back the round.
Likely tired from having to wrestle so much in the round prior, Pereira seemed to take decent stretches of the fourth frame off. Pereira had moments of command when getting back to his jab, but Adesanya smartly kept sticking him to the body from different stances and clinching his colossal counterpart whenever things got too heated.
In the final round, Pereira – like a man possessed – walked through a hard southpaw body kick and, behind the force of his jab, began to answer to Adesanya’s body in kind.
Adesanya attempted to get back to the hand traps that afforded him success throughout the fight, but Pereira appeared to have realized that he could negate those tactics by stealing the striking initiative and staying active with his lead hand.
This immediately prompted another clinch from Adesanya, which drew a reaction from his opponent. Pereira, to his credit, was able to create a separation before a checked low kick sent Adesanya stumbling (which Adesanya cited as a peroneal nerve issue post-fight).
Regardless of the cause of the stumble, the temperature of the contest continued to escalate from there on out.
Pereira got right back to his battering ram of a jab, opening up hooking opportunities and flurries as he forced Adesanya to skirt along the cage looking for exits. Although Adesanya immediately protested the eventual stoppage, referee Marc Goddard likely saved him from some potentially life-altering damage – which ultimately allows for them to run it back this Saturday.
Point of interest: Potential adjustments
Considering Adesanya has more experience both in MMA and in rematches in general, I wouldn’t blame anyone for assuming that he has a higher ceiling for adjustments.
Not only is Adesanya 2-0 in MMA rematches (and 4-1 in kickboxing), but the former UFC champ is arguably the more flexible fighter from a tactical and technical perspective. Should Adesanya realize that putting Pereira on his back foot was a common thread for a large part of his successes throughout their series, then we could see a different result this Saturday.
That said, Adesanya, who has trended more toward fighting on the outside as of late, has traditionally been a bit conservative in rematches.
Whereas Pereira, despite officially standing at 3-3 in kickboxing rematches, seems to come in well-prepped on his opponent and more willing to push a pace the second time around.
Pereira’s rematch record, much like his series with Adesanya, can also be a tricky thing to take in at face value without the proper context.
Whether we’re talking about Pereira’s early fights with Cesar Almeida or his more relevant offerings opposite Artem Vakhitov, there’s a legitimate argument that a lot of those results could be flipped around (with Robbie Lawler’s series with Johny Hendricks being a prime example of what I’m talking about).
A lot was made about Pereira’s stamina at UFC 281, but the Brazilian was self-admittedly being careful about his gas tank given that it potentially could’ve been his first time going 25 minutes in MMA.
Now that Pereira was able to prove it to himself by securing a finish in the final round, I’ll be curious to see if the reinforced confidence allows his staying power to blossom even further.
I’ll also be looking to see if Pereira makes a more concerted effort with his jab.
As Glover Teixeira told the UFC broadcast team post-fight, their plan was to utilize the jab – particularly to the neck and chest area – a lot more due to Adesanya’s propensity to slip his head offline. And whenever Pereira did use his jab, he’d almost automatically change the temperature of the fight by forcing Adesanya backward, regardless of whether or not he scored a direct hit.
Alex Pereira jabs to head, chest, and body to pin Adesanya against the fence, then hooks off his jab to punish escapes. pic.twitter.com/d2qBRa4vPJ
— Miguel Class (@MigClass) February 24, 2023
Staying more active with the jab will also help dissuade Adesanya’s hand traps, as well as assist in the establishment of other weapons. That said, Pereira’s jab (and offense in general) seemed vacant whenever Adesanya switched to southpaw.
Even though Adesanya was finished while falling into a southpaw stance in their second meeting in kickboxing, fighting lefty has largely benefited Adesanya throughout the series. Aside from my suspicions about Pereira’s defense and comfortability in dealing with that stance, Adesanya’s varied offense to the head and body seems to land at a decent clip from that side.
Many may also be quick to point out Adesanya’s grappling success in round three of their last outing as a potential pathway to victory for him this weekend, but I’m not sure how replicable that will be given that it was an ill-advised takedown attempt from an out-of-position Pereira that initiated that sequence in the first place (after Adesanya was hurt to the body, no less).
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Despite previous results, the oddsmakers and the public still are siding with “The Last Stylebender,” listing Adesanya -155 and Pereira +135 as of this writing.
Although we can argue about whether or not a sitting champion should be the underdog, I’m glad to see the betting lines are tighter this time around. Both fighters deserve that kind of respect and this a tricky fight to call.
Not only is there a plethora of outcomes on the table, but the psychology attached provides for an ultra-potent intangible – particularly for Adesanya’s side of things.
But assuming for a second that Adesanya can successfully give up the ghost ahead of this rematch for the title, I think directionality will be the key dynamic in this battle.
As alluded to in the previous sections, forward/offensive pressure was a common thread of success for both parties throughout the series.
Whether we’re talking about Adesanya’s sneaky setups off of jabs and his variety from southpaw or Pereira’s pressure and lead-hand savvy, the fighter who comes forward will have an inherent edge in exchanges.
Adesanya has proven that he can also be effective from the outside, but that approach also entails walking a fine line between the cage and inner-black octagon lines – which just so happens to be Pereira’s preferred kill zone.
Even though I won’t be surprised to see Pereira put out Adesanya with a knee for teasing takedown attempts that involve changing his level, I’ll stick with my official pick from last time and side with “Poatan” by decision.
I warned everyone ahead of Leon Edwards’ rubber match with Kamaru Usman that there was more to their rematch than just some “lucky shot,” explaining how their second encounter in Salt Lake City was a deceptively competitive affair that planted to seeds for an Edwards win to close the series. Given how many people seem to have already forgotten that lesson (not one pay-per-view later), the stage is now set for Pereira to remind the masses that he holds the scoreboard Saturday.
Prediction: Pereira by decision
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 287.
