MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 283.
UFC 283 takes place Saturday at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC and early prelims on ESPN+.
Glover Teixeira (33-8 MMA, 16-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 43 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Submission loss to Jiri Prochazka (June 11, 2022)
- Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Garage (Danbury, Conn.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC light heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 18 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 19 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate right cross and left hook
+ Good economy of movement
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Works well from single-leg
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Underhook getups, sweeps and submissions
+/- 4-0 against UFC-level southpaws
Jamahal Hill (11-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 79″
- Last fight: TKO win over Thiago Santos (Aug. 6, 2022)
- Camp: Black Lion Jiu-jitsu (Michigan)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Accurate left hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Sneaky check right hook
+ Hard kicks and knees
^ Variates well to the body
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Good underhook awareness
+ Serviceably grappling ability
^ Active from top and bottom
Point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
The main event in Brazil features an impromptu matchup for the vacant light heavyweight title between former champion Glover Teixeira and a fast-rising southpaw in Jamahal Hill.
When going back to look at Teixiera’s fights with past southpaws, it appears he prioritizes outside foot awareness, making sure his lead foot is outside his opponents’ lead foot, and kick counters. Outside of that, Teixeira’s striking tools don’t wildly fluctuate regardless of the stance challenge.
A more traditional stalker, Teixeira will come forward steadily while he looks to ply pressure, pushing his opponent back and forcing him to answer any time he can. Often starting with a lead right hand, the 43-year-old Brazilian will bait his opposition into exchanging with him, all while keeping his cleanup-hitting left hook at the ready.
Although Teixeira seldom will throw himself out of position, leading from the power side is a tactic that is more heavily reliant on speed, something that tends to go with age. With that in mind, I will be curious to see if the vet looks to lean more on his under-utilized jabs and kicks when looking to close space against Hill.
A talented prospect who sticks out at light heavyweight, it’s easy to see why so many are high on Hill.
Preferring to fight from southpaw, Hill is steadily piecing together all the weapons you’d like to see from a fighter who operates out of that stance. Whether Hill is sneaking in check hooks off of his pinpoint cross or variating kicks off of his power side, the 31-year-old American does a good job of mixing his attacks to the body.
Going to the body will likely serve him well in this contest, but he’ll need to be careful when changing his level or potentially overthrowing shots given the possible counters from Teixeira.
Point of interest: Grappling with Glover
Considering that the former champion will be carrying a clear edge on the ground, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties.
Wrestling since he was a youngster in Brazil, Teixeira has always possessed underrated skills in this department, effortlessly chaining off from his favored home base of the single-leg position. Teixeira also displays solid layers of defensive grappling, either by stuffing initial shots or smartly re-wrestling his way back to his feet when taken down.
Even after being repeatedly rocked and dropped by Alexander Gustafsson and many others, the Brazilian was still able to immediately attack off his back and initiate intelligent scrambles that allowed him to get back into the fight. If Teixeira is able to ground or reverse his younger counterpart, then Hill will need to be on his best behavior – even if the champ is hurt.
Glover Teixeira turning partial losses of consciousness into dominant, fight-ending positions is one of my favorite MMA things: pic.twitter.com/4s2OhittgU
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 4, 2021
In Hill’s defense, the American appears to have solid instincts when it comes to fighting grips and looking for separations, so don’t be shocked if the Michigan native can hold his own in these phases.
In fact, when going back to watch some of Hill’s regional fight footage, I found out that the American fighter wasn’t kidding in regards to grappling being his gateway into mixed martial arts.
Even back in his fourth professional fight in 2018, Hill displayed a decent ability to chain to and from single-leg variations, competently completing finishes. Although it is much more common for Hill’s defense to be on display, it is apparent that he’s been quietly working on his wrestling when seeing where his head is at in exchanges (as well as listening to the instructions he gets from his corner).
On the mat, Hill’s game – outside of being caught by Paul Craig – appears very applicable to MMA.
From topside, Hill seems to smartly prioritize passing and punching, but will confidently apply himself from the mount position should it become available. And when Hill finds himself on the bottom, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt seems both composed and active while either attacking or looking for sensible get-up solutions.
However, Hill will need to be extra careful about back exposure this Saturday.
As we’ve seen in many of Teixeira’s fights before, the Brazilian can close the show if you turtle out or expose your back in transit. A fluent pressure passer and positional rider, Teixeira is a master chef when it comes to cooking his opposition underneath him.
Methodically (and brutally) using ground strikes, Teixeira adds fuel to the fire as he force-feeds his opponents into head-and-arm chokes if they turn into him, or rear-naked chokes if they turn away.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are slightly favoring the American fighter, listing Hill -125 and Teixeira +105 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Despite my official pick and admitted fandom for Teixeira, I’m kind of surprised we’re not seeing a wider line in favor of Hill.
Even though Teixeira is officially 4-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, he didn’t exactly strike for long stanzas in those contests (much less look comfortable while standing). Teixeira, to his credit, still shows decent eyes in the pocket and seems to have a decent beat on head kicks and crosses that are launched from a southpaw stance.
That said, Teixeira is not beyond being stung by sneaky check-right hooks and has the propensity to eat body shots due to his hardwiring to pressure behind a high-guard variation. In fact, Jiri Prochazka found a ton of southpaw success in the third round of their epic battle after landing a hard body knee that Teixeira credits for a major momentum swing in the fight.
Not only does Hill have similar dynamic offerings to the body, but the 6-year pro also has a sneaky check hook that will be live whenever they’re both upright.
Nevertheless, I still find myself slightly leaning the other way.
Although I just outlined how potent Hill’s pathways on the feet will be, that doesn’t mean that Teixeira won’t have some striking edges of his own.
Despite showing some defensive improvements in regard to his lead hand awareness, Hill seems to have a habit of low-handed retractions and will still sometimes get caught with his head upright when getting excited in exchanges (something seen in his last outing).
Speaking of his last fight, it could also be a telling sign that Hill allowed a striker like Thiago Santos to rack up the amount of takedowns and control time he did. Sure, Santos may have eventually wrestled himself into a hole anyways, but it’s hard not to imagine Teixeira making some serious hay if given those same opportunities.
In fact, when looking back at that fight and others, most of Hill’s grappling entanglements seem to come along the fence (a place where his opponents, win or lose, have a high success rate of getting him to). For that reason, I’ll take the flier on the ultimate sportsman in Teixeira to survive one last storm before riding off into the sunset.
No one should be shocked to see youth prevail a la an early knockout for Hill, but I believe that Teixeira – even at this advanced stage of his career – can still take younger men into the deep waters that he lives in. I’ll pick Teixeira to pound his way to a head-and-arm choke win in the third round.
