MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the the battle for the vacant bantamweight title at UFC 251 between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo.
UFC 251 takes place Saturday at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Petr Yan (14-1 MMA, 6-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 27 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Urijah Faber (Dec. 14, 2019)
- Camp: Tiger Muay Thai (Thailand)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ ACB bantamweight title
+ Master of sports in boxing
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts stances, takes angles
+ Accurate left hand
^ Jabs, hooks and crosses
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Defense, trips, strikes off the breaks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Scrambles well
+ Underrated submission savvy
Jose Aldo (28-6 MMA, 10-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Decision loss over Marlon Moraes (Dec. 14, 2019)
- Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC and WEC featherweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 4x Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion
+ 16 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
^ Good reactive instincts
+ Superb footwork
^ Lateral movement, pivots, back-steps
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Jabs and counter crosses
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Strong hips and base
Point of interest: High-level fisticuffs
A bantamweight battle for a vacant belt, Yan vs. Aldo has all the makings for a classic meeting of high-level talents.
Yan, who is a fighter I’ve eyed since his epic battle with Magomed Magomedov back at ACB 32, has done nothing but inflate the feelings of hardcore fans since stepping onto the UFC stage.
A ferocious Russian competitor, Yan implements a boxing-heavy approach that is both analyst and fan-friendly, as he aggressively works his opposition toward the fence. Whether Yan is operating from orthodox or southpaw, the 27-year-old phenom often conducts traffic with his left hand, as he wields a bevy of accurate weapons from that side.
From straight shots down the center that range from jabs to crosses or sneaky hooks and uppercuts off the lead side, Yan can pretty much do all things from boxing range. The Tiger Muay Thai product will also mix in other things like kicks, knees and elbows into his repertoire – though he seems to smartly save that shot selection for his assaults off of the breaks.
Yan does a deceptively good job on the defensive end, as the former amateur boxer will subtly roll with oncoming shots while keeping his eyes on his opponent with returns in mind. That said, shifting aggression – no matter who is at the steering wheel – tends to be a ripe recipe in regards to opportunistic counters.
Enter Aldo.
Although his people proudly proclaim him as “The King of Rio,” you could argue that Aldo is also the king of counters when looking at his overall fighting game from a thematic standpoint. And when narrowing it down to just his striking, it’s not hard to see the potent counters that the former featherweight kingpin brings to the table.
Typically commanding the cage with disciplined, technical footwork, we have seen Aldo, time and time again, steadily pressure his opponents into exchanges on his terms. Consistently keeping his feet beneath him, the Nova Uniao staple is seldom out of position, which in turn allows him to counter with conviction.
Displaying a solid sense of head movement, Aldo often slips and returns authoritatively with right hand-left hook counters or the occasional leg kick. When pressing forward, the former champ traditionally has been known for his classic “Dutchie” combination, launching a left hook to the liver that feeds nicely into a right leg kick that could serve him well, considering his counterpart tends to lean on a shelling defense.
However, as many have noticed by now, Aldo has been reluctant to go to his leg kicks in recent years.
If you listen to the Brazilian’s coaches and corner, then you will hear them telling their fighter to go to them sparingly, only encouraging Aldo to kick toward the end of rounds or the fight itself. And given the fact that Aldo seems to stay incredibly aware of opposition either trying to counter him or take him down, I won’t be holding my breath for any WEC flashbacks.
Still, power is usually the last thing to go on a fighter’s tool belt, and I suspect that Aldo’s countering ability alone will keep things tense for as the fight stays standing.
Next point of interest: Scrambling down the stretch
Point of interest: Scrambling down the stretch
Considering the clear on-paper edge for Aldo on the floor, it’s hard not to wonder if the former featherweight champ will look to use his size in close quarters.
Aldo has not typically been the one to look for takedowns in his fights, but I wouldn’t blame him for dusting off these skills for this matchup (as well as this weight class, for that matter). A tremendous top player, Aldo can cut guards and pass to/punish from mount like few others.
Still, as agile as Aldo has shown to be, those abilities will certainly be tested should he decide to scramble with Yan.
Although I don’t necessarily see Yan going for or being successful in taking Aldo down early, the Russian fighter demonstrates all the tools and sensibilities I like to see in regards to navigating through positional scrambles.
From proper technique when tripoding or turtling, to his ability to smartly swim his arms and re-wrestle from said positions, I can see that Yan has come a long way since the more judo/sambo-based tactics that he was using earlier in his career.
Coupled with his training in Thailand, a lot of Yan’s initial martial arts ethics have shown to tie in nicely to his evolved game. From the hand-fighting styles he favors in boxing to his almost Fedor Emelianenko/sambo-like sensibility to use disruptive foot sweeps to cause opportunistic separations, Yan is constantly creating offense off of defense.
Even when put firmly on his back, Yan shows a solid submission savvy that he chains from, as these portions of his contests often feel like you’re watching flyweight affairs. I’m not sure he’ll be able to submit a multiple-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion like Aldo, but I do believe Yan is skillful enough to keep his counterpart honest throughout.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the Russian standout, listing Yan -225 and Aldo +185 as of this writing.
Although my Aldo fandom is hoping for a fight that is closer than the odds lead on, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the betting spread above widen come fight day.
From a betting perspective, fading the older lion has long been a popular trend in the fight game. And from a stylistic standpoint, I’m not liking what I’m seeing for the former featherweight king.
Sure, Aldo appears to be rejuvenated at bantamweight to the extent that he was able to push forward for three hard rounds. And though he was also able to take some hard shots from Marlon Moraes, Aldo seemed to be overpowered in certain tie-ups that were a bit disconcerting.
Moreover, Moraes, like Aldo, is also a fighter who needs pockets of time to recover, which – to me – bodes badly against a building fighter like Yan.
Yan typically uses the first round to make a lot of his reads and establish his rhythm before unleashing versatile violence in full force. So, unless Aldo can capitalize on a mistake in the first two rounds, I suspect we’ll see Yan overwhelm him (likely from a southpaw stance to help mute jabs and potential leg licks) via body shots and uppercuts by the end of the third round.
