MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 251.
UFC 251 takes place Saturday at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Kamaru Usman (16-1 MMA, 11-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: TKO win over Colby Covington (Dec. 14, 2019)
- Camp: ONX Labs (Denver)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC welterweight champion
+ “The Ultimate Fighter 21” alum
+ NCAA Division-II national champ
+ 3x NCAA All-American
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Improved overall striking
^ Puts together punches well
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ In the open or against the fence
+ Superb top game and control
^ Rides and transitions intelligently
Jorge Masvidal (33-13 MMA, 12-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 35 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: TKO win over Nate Diaz (Nov. 2, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ “BMF” belt holder
+ AFC welterweight title
+ Undefeated in the streets
+ 16 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Slick boxing technique
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Improved kicking game
+ Solid balance and footwork
+ Active transition and clinch game
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Underrated submission acumen
Point of interest: Sucked into striking?
The main event for UFC 251 features a fun, impromptu fight for the welterweight title.
Originally slated to face Gilbert Burns, champion Kamaru Usman will now defend his belt against Jorge Masvidal, who officially took this fight on six days notice.
The notion of a fan favorite like Masvidal finally getting his title shot under these circumstances can be somewhat deflating, but lest we not forget what fighters like Michael Bisping or Nate Diaz were able to do when handed life-changing opportunities on short notice. Add in the fact that Masvidal has been staying active as a sparring partner for Dustin Poirier and others during this pandemic, and the Cuban’s timing and fight shape may surprise many.
Nevertheless, regardless of Masvidal’s readiness, he’ll still likely need to suck Usman into some sort of striking battle in order to give himself his best chances to win this contest. And given what we saw from Usman in his last outing, it appears that the champion is as stoic as he is strong, steadily plugging his perceived holes on the feet.
Although Usman has spent this camp over at the ONX Labs with Trevor Wittman, his striking has largely been under the care of Henri Hooft, a Dutch-style striking coach who emphasizes a lot on pressure, power and fundamentals.
In said time, Hooft has been able to help Usman’s power and presence blossom on the feet, throwing shots much smoother in transition and off of breaks. In addition, the Nigeria-born fighter also appears to be a natural when it comes to his footwork.
Whether he is feinting forward or shifting his stance in combination, Usman will persistently corral his opposition toward the cage, attacking them with impunity whenever they step near it. The 33-year-old champion is also smart about shifting away from his opponent’s power side when advancing, all while throwing corralling hooks that help him close space.
Nevertheless, as efficient as this approach has been for Usman, he is still not beyond reproach defensively, which means successfully suffocating space will be crucial against a fighter who is potent in small pockets.
Initially stepping into MMA from the backyard brawling scene, Masvidal has turned into one of the savvier strikers among his contemporaries, operating with the comfort of a longtime veteran. Feinting forward and initiating with his jab, Masvidal has always had a knack for pulling and returning punches with his opponents.
At lightweight, the Cuban’s style and available output had him arguably too comfortable at times, costing him crucial rounds in close fights – fights that many thought he won. That said, we have seen a different iteration of Masvidal since his ascension up the welterweight division.
Now pursuing much more aggressively, Masvidal will mix in his improved kicks off of Thai-style marches. Working well off of his patented left hand, the 17-year vet asserts himself down the centerline with authority, varying between straight shots to the head or hooks to the body.
Masvidal, who seldom extends himself too far out of position, can be hard to hit cleanly more often than not. However, his comfort in exchanges has shown to cost him both blitzes and counters at times, as no one should be surprised if Usman has his moments on the feet.
That said, the sitting champion will still be playing with fire for as long as this fight stays standing.
Next point of interest: Wrestling wrath
Point of interest: Wrestling wrath
Considering the clear path that the champion’s style and strength afford him, it will be interesting to see when Usman looks to take Masvidal down.
Thankfully for Usman, getting Masvidal to his preferred place of attack along the fence hasn’t traditionally been the most difficult thing to do – though I’d argue that out-wrestling the Cuban is an ask that’s harder than meets the eye.
For those who have not been following Masvidal’s career for the past decade or so, you may be surprised to find out that the first thing the former street fighter started to sharpen in MMA was his wrestling chops. A longtime member of American Top Team, Masvidal has had all the appropriate guidance and training partners, as his techniques have quietly translated to the cage for some time.
Not only has Masvidal maintained consistent standings in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions for takedown defense ratings, but he also applies the fine detail in small spaces that often go unnoticed.
From the savviness of Masvidal’s hips to his intuition of when and how to circle out, you can see why he receives unanimous praise from those in the know. Even when taken down, Masvidal has a persistent pop to his get-up game, cleverly using the cage or defensively circling to avoid getting his back compromised.
More importantly, Masvidal has shown an ingrained, near-effortless technical savvy in the way in which he flows from defending submissions to countering wrestling positions, smoothly striking off of separations without a second thought. The BMF belt holder is also underrated from the front-headlock position, but I fear that Usman’s takedown entries and suffocating style could shut down a lot of those threats.
As referenced earlier, Usman prefers to get a lot of his wrestling done off of the fence via corralling and clinching efforts. Once establishing his office in this space, the champ wastes little time in going to work.
Wrestling at a Division II level for three years (where he was also a two-time national finalist), Usman has always shown the freakish ability to both finish and defend shots from sometimes surprising positions. Coupled with his work ethic and determination, Usman was able to over-perform in a multitude of ways, especially considering that he didn’t even start wrestling until mid-way through high school.
After helping high-level fighters with their own wrestling, Usman ended up making the jump into mixed martial arts, where he has steadily built onto his imposing wrestling game and presence. Whether he is hitting takedowns in the open or chaining his attempts along the fence, Usman has, for the most part, been able to do what he wants to wrestling-wise inside of the octagon.
Freakish takedown ability aside, Usman also bears an impressive intelligence in transition that could help aid him in his matchup.
Demonstrating excellent positional awareness, Usman always seems to make high-percentage choices whether he is passing or punching. Using suffocating wrestling rides that stymie everything from posts to submission attempts, Usman will seamlessly hit his transitions while steaming his opposition underneath him.
However, given Masvidal’s underrated wrestling savvy, Usman will not be able to afford to sleep on the scrambling and striking off the breaks that the title challenger brings to the table.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Usman -250 and Masvidal +210 as of this writing.
Although money seems to keep coming in on Masvidal as an underdog, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line inflate back up come fight day.
Masvidal is a favorite of mine who has made me money before as an underdog, so I totally get the love coming his way. That said, there’s an argument to make that Usman may be one of Masvidal’s toughest stylistic matchups regardless of division.
From Usman’s shown gas tank and durability to his proven strength and style, I could easily see this being a long night for Masvidal if he’s not able to stun the champ or hurt him to the body in the first couple of rounds.
Should Usman humor him on the feet, then I think we’ll see Masvidal utilize his underrated leg and calf kicks (something I suspect he had a lot of practice throwing if he was playing Dan Hooker for Poirier). But if Masvidal doesn’t demonstrate the ability to separate and strike off clinch breaks early, then I see Usman banking rounds on the BMF belt holder en route to another dominant win.
Prediction: Usman by decision
