MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 250.
UFC 250 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Amanda Nunes (19-4 MMA, 12-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: Decision win over Germaine de Randamie (Dec. 14, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight and featherweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Judo brown belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 3 submission win
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Underrated footwork
+ Improved jab
+ Dangerous right hand
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good hip awareness
+ Solid top game
Felicia Spencer (8-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: TKO win over Zarah Fairn (Feb. 29, 2020)
- Camp: The Jungle MMA (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Invicta FC featherweight title
+ Taekwondo black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 2 KO victory
+ 4 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Diverse striking arsenal
^ Kickboxing attacks, stance-shifting attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling and takedowns
^ Relentless chains and scrambles
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Excellent back-taker
Point of interest: Striking with the Lioness
The main event for UFC 250 features a featherweight title fight between two females who aren’t afraid of a little traffic on the feet.
Felicia Spencer, who is a serviceable, come-forward kickboxer, carries a black belt in tae kwon do that speaks loudly within her style.
Staying light on her feet and not afraid to shift stances, Spencer can unleash everything from ax to hook kicks off her lead leg to front teeps and round kicks from the rear. When feeling in stride, Spencer does a decent job of attaching punches to her striking flow, but her defense is also most culpable at these times.
Shifting attacks alone tend to open up even the best of strikers to harsh weather by nature, so Spencer will have to really prioritize head movement and level-changes to avoid any abrupt stops or counters. In fact, changing her level/using the looming takedown threats could serve her well standing, especially should Spencer fake a takedown to a head kick a la Frankie Edgar-style.
Still, no matter Spencer’s approach, she can’t afford to get too creative before getting to her preferred points of entry. Striking comfort aside, she will be standing across a fast and formidable fighter come Saturday night.
Enter Amanda Nunes.
A fighter who came storming aggressively out of the gates, Nunes has had to refine her natural aptitude for combat. Training boxing since she was 16, Nunes has rounded out her game with effective muay Thai since entering MMA.
Initially forcing her way into exchanges (and producing quick results in doing so), Nunes has slowly sharpened her skills, smartly adjusting her pressuring approach. Most notably, Nunes has improved her footwork, circling just outside of range as opposed to rushing right in.
Intelligently circling or taking the appropriate angles, the double champ has been able to improve her distance management, striking technique and shot selection, making the power coming off of her frame more potent in the process. This, coupled with Nunes’ upgraded jab and feints, could help her dissuade the offense that may be coming her way.
Nunes has also proven to use her jab much more efficiently to set up her crosses and hooks, as well as utilizing it as a check to either the head or body to help exit exchanges safely.
Even though Nunes has proven in recent years that she can conduct herself accordingly in the striking department for prolonged periods of time, I see this being a battle that will require a lot of effort in regards to keeping things on the feet.
Next point of interest: Wrestling wears
Point of interest: Wrestling wears
Considering where Spencer’s strengths reside, many will be curious to see if she can get Nunes to play her style of grappling game.
The Canadian-born American resident may not come from a wrestling background, but I love how consistently hard she gets after it in both the takedown and scrambling departments. Spencer can either change levels in the open or hustle for doubles along the fence, and is not afraid to drop back for deep-half-style scrambles that allow her opportunities to sweep and steal positions.
With that in mind, Nunes will need to be on point with her defensive tactics.
Coming from a background in judo, Nunes has made noticeable improvements to her wrestling – both defensively and offensively – since moving shop to American Top Team. Whether she is shooting in for her own takedown or shucking off deep doubles, Nunes displays solid defensive wherewithal and grip awareness.
Nevertheless, if Nunes does get taken down in this fight, then she’ll need to mind her propensity to turtle/tripod back up to her feet, as these will be prime spots that Spencer typically makes her money off of.
A superb back-taker who can secure back-mount in tight and steal spots on the fly, Spencer is not afraid to make her hips heavy, sinking her weight into her opposition. And with her opponent’s typically acknowledging the difference of Spencer’s game through their defensive actions, the 29-year-old usually has carte blanche in these situations.
That said, Spencer is not beyond being put on her back, as we could see Nunes wrestle or scramble her way to topside just as easily in this fight.
The sitting champ has a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to go along with her brown belt in judo and has proven to be a nightmare whenever working from top position, showing both brutal ground striking and submission savvy. Nunes did show a couple of lapses on concentration in her last outing that put her in some briefly precarious positions – something that she probably can’t afford here.
Spencer parlays her leg dexterity from taekwondo nicely into her grappling game and will likely offer a lot of submissions and scramble looks from this position, which that could ultimately force Nunes to play much more conservative than usual.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are heavily favoring the current champ, listing Nunes -600 and Spencer +450 as of this writing.
Given the double champ’s current run, it’s hard to be surprised to see such a spread in the betting odds above. But as I’ve warned my audience before, always be skeptical of wide, inflated lines in MMA.
Although Nunes’ game is much more complete than previous female predecessors like Ronda Rousey, she, too, will not be beyond being blindsided by an upset.
Spencer, who I believe is a much livelier dog than the odds above would indicate, checks off a lot of the stylistic boxes that have troubled Nunes in the past.
Akin to a younger Diego Sanchez, Spencer displays the durability and grappling savvy to go along with her inherent sense to pressure that could potentially pay some serious dividends down the stretch of a five-round affair. So, by that logic, Nunes could hypothetically find herself struggling to tread water if she fails or exacerbates herself in seeking a finish.
It would be awesome to see Spencer upset the odds on Saturday but it’s ultimately hard to bet against Nunes in her current form.
Though seeing Spencer surge late wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest, Nunes – to her credit – has shown to slow down and lose focus a lot less in the latest chapter of her career. I don’t know if she can secure a stoppage against the durable challenger, but I do see her doing enough damage and surviving any potential scares down the stretch to take the scorecards should it get there.
