MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 249.
UFC 249 takes place Saturday at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+.
Henry Cejudo (15-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 64″
- Last fight: TKO win over Marlon Moraes(June 8, 2019)
- Camp: Fight Ready MMA (Arizona)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight and bantamweight champion
+ Olympic wrestling gold medalist (U.S.)
+ Bronze Gloves boxing champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid footwork
^ Seldom out of position
+ Improved overall striking
^ Coming forward or off of the counter
+ Hard kicks and knees
^ Targets the body well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid grips/hand-fighting
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ 90 percent takedown defense rate
+ Works well from topside
Dominick Cruz (22-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 34 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Cody Garbrandt(Dec. 30, 2016)
- Camp: Alliance MMA (San Diego, CA)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ 2x UFC bantamweight champion
+ WEC bantamweight title
+ Regional MMA titles at featherweight, lightweight
+ Wrestling base
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Creative feints and footwork
^ Allows for misdirection/directional change
+ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
+ Underrated kicks and combinations
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Well-timed knee-tap takedowns
+ Superb scrambling and defense
^ Always urgent/positionally aware
+ Intelligent rides and strikes from topside
+/- Coming off 41-month layoff
Point of interest: Speed, styles and miles
The co-main event for UFC 249 features a crossroads matchup for the bantamweight belt that should make for an interesting stylistic clash.
An Olympic gold medalist wrestler with some boxing experience, Henry Cejudo initially came onto the scene implementing somewhat of a stick-and-move curriculum. Seldom throwing himself out of position, Cejudo packs cross-hook combinations that are often punctuated with hard kicks to the body.
Back when Cejudo fought Joseph Benavidez, the former freestyle wrestler displayed an upgraded muay Thai arsenal from his time spent at CSA in Northern California. And in his fight with Wilson Reis in 2017, Cejudo took things to yet another level, coming out in a sharp karate stance that he picked up while working down in Brazil with the Pitbull brothers (Bellator’s Patricio and Patricky Freire) – something I suspect we could see on Saturday.
Showing off an improved sense of range, Cejudo appears more capable of timing and countering his opponents precisely with palpable speed and power, which will likely come in handy when facing a fighter who should be slower on paper.
Enter Dominick Cruz.
Though he is undoubtedly the fighter with more MMA miles and wear on his body, Cruz did not earn the title (from myself and many others, anyway) of the greatest bantamweight of all time for nothing.
Despite carrying the nickname of “The Dominator,” I would argue that Cruz has historically been more of an innovator in MMA, whether we’re talking about the former champ’s incorporation of Muhammad Ali-like feints and footwork or the fact that he was forcing judges to award defense in a sport that seldom acknowledges such things even exist.
Often utilizing crouch variations as a jumping-off point, Cruz can either dart out to his left with a right cross for cover offensively or swing his stance back in a traditional shift (taught to me as “opening the gate”), which quietly changes the defensive terms of the equation and allows for Cruz to catch aggressive on-comers with his patented check-hooks and uppercuts.
Regardless of how Cruz is exercising his flow chart, the former WEC kingpin quietly applies a consistent economy of movement that allows him to work off the natural weight transfers of his motion. Moving, striking, and slipping all at the same time, Cruz creates an environment that allows him to change direction (or his level) on his opposition at the drop of a dime.
Considering both the wrestling acumen and weighted stance that Cejudo brings to the table, I will be curious to see if Cruz leans more on his underrated leg kicks to score given the success of the current champ’s previous opponents. I will also be looking to see if Cejudo tries to sit back and use his speed advantage to counter as he did to Cruz’s previously-mentioned stablemate, Reis, or if he instead aims to pressure forward to punctuate his presence in other ways.
Next point of interest: Wrestling warfare
Point of interest: Wrestling warfare
With both men coming from wrestling bases, I will be curious to see if either is able to enact his core strengths on the night.
Despite carrying in the higher wrestling credentials on paper, Cejudo has spent a large part of his career in the octagon utilizing it more for defensive purposes.
From a grappling perspective, Cejudo has traditionally done well at stifling his opponents in the clinch with fundamental hand-fighting and controls (outside of his first fight with Demetrious Johnson, of course). And when Cejudo is able to establish any combination of over or underhooks, the 33-year-old is quick to use those opportunities to hit inside trips or other forms of takedowns that chain off the motion he creates.
Cejudo is not beyond changing his level in the open to score, but he does seem to favor chaining his way toward the clinch to get his takedowns – an approach that could be troublesome on paper against an agile mover who’s hard to pin down.
Parlaying his fancy foot movement into potent offensive and defensive angles, Cruz demonstrates the undeniable – yet often overlooked – connection between boxing and wrestling footwork. Working off the weight he transfers, Cruz can seamlessly change levels and phases to hit his patent knee-tap takedowns mid-motion.
Embodying a more conservative style of catch wrestling, Cruz demonstrates solid positional awareness as soon as the fight hits the floor.
Intelligently transitioning from topside, Cruz will appropriately manage the risk in his ride choices, effectively seeing out the storms of some of the sport’s best scramblers. Whether the 34-year-old is electing to turn his navy ride into a leg-drag variation to land ground strikes or is trying to spiral out his opposition to de-base their defensive actions, Cruz always seems to be a step ahead in transition.
That said, taking down Cejudo, much less controlling him, seems like it’s going to be a big ask in MMA.
Seldom out of position and sporting a stout, athletic frame, Cejudo may end up being the one with the best chances to end up on top in this matchup. Taking a page out of Cruz’s playbook, we’ve seen Cejudo smartly utilize heavy shoulder pressure to kill scrambles from topside when facing the likes of Johnson. And against Reis, Cejudo showed small but impressive riding details that tell me his ground game is continuing to evolve and should not be overlooked.
Nevertheless, it’s still hard to ignore the fact Cruz is also a fighter who has been hard to control in any facet throughout his career, as – that’s right, kids – the UFC color commentator practices what he preaches in regards to underhooks.
Working diligently and staying urgent in bad spots, Cruz hustles hard for underhooks as he attempts to face his opposition before looking for his separations. It’s in these instances where I believe Cruz could have his best chances for success in regards to re-wrestling and scoring by surprise – but Cejudo’s strikes off of the break will also be potent in this space.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the more active man, listing Cejudo -210 and Cruz +175 as of this writing.
Despite my official pick and admitted bias toward Cruz, I am actually surprised that the betting spread above doesn’t favor Cejudo more emphatically. From the challenger’s layoff to the champion’s proven gameness and athletic superiority, it’s pretty easy to argue that Cejudo is the deserved favorite to walk away from this fight as the winner.
Not only will Cejudo have speed and power edges over Cruz, but the multi-divisional champion will also have a wrestling prowess that could prove problematic if instituted defensively, thereby limiting the potential adjustments from Cruz. Cody Garbrandt’s stellar takedown defense at UFC 207 was a key part of enabling his counter-punching performance opposite Cruz, though I’m not sure that math – nor the stylistic fit – will apply to Cejudo in quite the same way.
Garbrandt and Cejudo, both technically and at heart, are much different fighters. Cejudo is obviously better when it comes to composure and adjustments, while I’d argue that Garbrandt is still the heavier and more proficient counter puncher (when he can keep his cool).
Now, does that mean that Cejudo is incapable of catching Cruz? Of course not.
However, outside of his fight with Reis, most of Cejudo’s meaningful counters have come in the form of crashing right hands, which makes me wonder how he intends to catch one of the most elusive fighters in the sport.
Sure, speed and reaction times tend to be the first things to go when dealing with age and injury; I don’t deny that here.
That said, on the flip side of that perspective, if Cruz is able to come in with a rested and healthy body, I still think there’s a lot he can get done that many might not be considering. Lest we not forget, Cruz’s last showing may have been a poor performance that didn’t age kindly, but it was coming off the tail of a busy and injury-ridden calendar year that Cruz elected to fight through.
So, from coming into his last defense with worn and torn feet to the broken hand and damaging headbutt that he suffered in the early rounds, I’d be careful in judging Cruz entirely off of his prior performance. In fact, Cruz – though rightfully losing – was still able to visibly stun and statistically outstrike Garbrandt down the stretch despite absorbing huge shots.
Cruz was also able to drop, stop or visibly damage his three opponents prior to what was just his second career loss, as I warn anyone writing off Cruz’s capabilities or this matchup’s clear size discrepancies. For that reason, I suggest you leave some room to be surprised in regards to Cruz being able to hurt to take down someone like Cejudo, who will be coming off of shoulder surgery.
Thankfully for Cejudo, he doesn’t seem to use his left side much for striking, but both shoulders are essential for wrestling (especially when having to swim for underhooks with the likes of Cruz). I mean, we all keep questioning Cruz, the guy who – time and time again – has successfully overcome the odds of layoffs and the adversity of injuries, yet we forget that Cejudo will be the one who is coming off of the longest layoff of his entire pro career.
OK, 11 months may not be that bad and the champ appears to be in phenomenal shape, but keep in mind that Cejudo closely won the flyweight title off Johnson, who also came off a similar combo of layoff time and shoulder surgery (and that’s not even mentioning the foot issues and obvious lack of offensive grappling from Johnson that night). Now, I don’t mean to discount the accomplishments or the adversities conquered by Cejudo in this alternate take of history, I just thought I’d cite certain facts to help balance the obvious narrative.
Ultimately, in a matchup of durable wrestlers who can scramble, I see this battle coming down to scoring threats.
Cejudo may be the better wrestler on paper, but I don’t see him meaningfully getting Cruz down nor consistently threatening with offense in the same way that the former champ does. In addition, I see Cejudo’s entries and dipping propensities playing into Cruz’s uppercuts and check hooks, as I also wouldn’t be surprised the see the flying knees and kicks that Cruz appears to be polishing via his social media coming into play as well.
Again, I know I’m not winning a popularity contest with this pick, as Cejudo is clearly the more elite athlete and should win this fight more often than not; no arguments there. But when it comes to the unprecedented times and uncertainties of a global pandemic, I find myself leaning more toward the mental outliers than the athletic ones on this fight card. So, if Cejudo doesn’t demonstrate the ability to touch Cruz early and often with consistency, then I’m siding with the longshot in Cruz to use his size to surprise and his skills to score down the stretch of a competitive five-round affair.
