MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 249.
UFC 249 takes place Saturday at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+.
Tony Ferguson (25-3 MMA, 14-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: TKO win over Donald Cerrone(June 8, 2019)
- Camp: 10th Planet Jiu-jitsu (California)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ *Former interim UFC lightweight champion
+ 2x All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 13 KO wins
+ 8 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
^ Well-conditioned/consistent stalker
+ Dynamic striking assault
^ Shifts stance and variates timing
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Superb hip, grip and lever awareness
+ Excellent from front-headlock
^ Chokes, transitions, back-takes
+ Active and attacking guard
Justin Gaethje (21-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: TKO win over Donald Cerrone(Sept. 14, 2019)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ WSOF lightweight title
+ NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ 18 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Heavy right hand
^ Variates between overhands and uppercuts
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good hips and dirty boxing
+ Strikes well off the break
+ Excellent wrestling and scrambling ability
+/- Propensity to brawl
Point of interest: Pressure King
“You tell ’em I’m coming, and hell’s coming with me, you hear?”
– Doc Holiday
Unprecedented times call for unexpected matchmaking, as the main event for UFC 249 will see Tony Ferguson welcome the always dangerous Justin Gaethje for yet another shot at the interim lightweight title.
I initially broke down this matchup when it was put together for the UFC’s targeted date of April 18 (before it was canceled, of course) and have made subsequent changes to this piece since.
Ferguson, as I’m sure you’ve heard by now, went ahead and made weight on April 17 anyway – a subject that I will be covering in the extra segments ahead with the help of a professional in that field. But as far as the striking portion of this contest is concerned, I still can’t wait to see how these kings of pressure stack up against one another.
Walking a fine line between forward mover and voracious marauder, Ferguson can seldom be found taking a back step in his fights.
Whether he is feinting or throwing, Ferguson – for the most part – is consistently putting pressure on his opponents, looking to either slice-and-dice his way inside or half-step his way into kill shots off of his accurate jab. From powerful prods to crafty checks, I suspect that the former interim titleholder’s jab will be a weapon to watch for in this matchup.
Ferguson also uses straight shots to help him counterbalance off of his body and leg kicks, and is not opposed to mixing spinning attacks into his offensive shifts and defensive slips. Nevertheless, it is in these instances of shifting attacks and advancements where Ferguson is most hittable and susceptible to being countered.
Although Ferguson has a deceptive ability to roll with the punches, taking shots becomes an extra dangerous proposition when you’re standing across from a malevolent, hell-riding slugger like Gaethje.
A man who may own the most violent and financially fruitful four-fight start in UFC history, Gaethje has proven to be highlight-reel material, win or lose.
A relentless forward mover, Gaethje embodies the phrase “a bull in a China shop” with his unabashed aggression and hard-wiring to inflict damage. Doing his best work when on the attack, Gaethje will gain his opponent’s respect with hard hooks and crosses, looking to punctuate his presence with crushing uppercuts and leg kicks when appropriate.
Similar to a Spartan behind his shield in a phalanx, Gaethje relies heavily upon his double-forearm guard, planting and looking to counter with immediacy.
Outside of his shelling defense, the 31-year-old has sometimes shown little regard for what comes back at him in the past, something that is reflected by his statistics in the strikes absorbed department. That said, Gaethje – under the tutelage of longtime coach Trevor Wittman – has quietly shown improvements in the feints and footwork department that have helped him both defensively and offensively.
I doubt that Gaethje hurting Ferguson at some point in the fight would surprise anyone; I’m just curious if Gaethje will make the same mistake many have when it comes to chasing a hurt Ferguson into the murky waters that he thrives in.
Next point of interest: Taking the bull by the horns
Point of interest: Taking the bull by the horns
Talking about on-paper grappling edges gets tricky when both fighters are traditionally hard to control in close quarters.
Both men have solid sprawls (or at least when they intend to, in the case of Ferguson), as well as possess an impressive ability to granby roll out of danger (which is a key reason why I believe both of them make for Khabib Nurmagomedov’s hardest potential matchup).
But if you’re asking me who I think is the better grappler is, then I have to go with Ferguson. The potential problem with getting excited about that proclamation is that getting to Gaethje’s hips – much less getting him to the ground – has been a difficult and dangerous proposition.
An unforgiving clinch fighter, the former Division 1 All-American wrestler has the hip triggers to shut down deep takedown attempts while still maintaining the aggressive wherewithal to throw uppercuts and leg kicks in small spaces, consistently striking and making his opposition pay off the breaks (from either stance).
Still, even though Gaethje has undoubtedly improved since his last WSOF title defense opposite Luiz Furmino, we have seen that trickier approaches such as half-guard dives produce sticky situations that make wonder how Gaethje will fare with the guard pulls and rolling leg entanglements coming his way. Add in the fact that Ferguson can get into his submission series from a standing position, and grappling exchanges become even harder to forecast.
Whether fighters are shooting in for a double-leg or changing their levels inside of clinch space, their heads will inherently have to travel through a neighborhood Ferguson refers to as “snap-down city.”
With a “snap-down” being a wrestling term that refers to the pulling down of an opponent’s head to break their posture, Ferguson has seemingly made his money from this position, using it to transition to back-takes and front chokes alike. Demonstrating the ability to chain from position-to-position (regardless of whether or not he is using traditional or unorthodox entries), Ferguson appears to have answers from multiple spots on the mat, even when hurt and under fire.
From his back, the former interim champ does well at staying active and attacking from a high guard. And though retaining or fighting from guard has been a fleeting trend in MMA, Ferguson demonstrates how effective one can be by mixing in submissions and strikes off of crafty hand-fighting techniques that almost resemble principles of Wing Chun (I guess Ferguson uses that practice dummy for a reason, huh?).
But regardless of the confidence that Ferguson has in his game, he could still find himself in the proverbial frying pan should he get too comfortable in transit or otherwise against a competent grappler like Gaetheje – who seemingly always has his hips springloaded to launch vicious ground strikes at the drop of a dime.
Next point of interest: Turnaround intangibles
Point of interest: Turnaround intangibles
The biggest change to this booking the second time around is undoubtedly the turnaround that each fighter faces.
Ferguson went aheada and made weight successfully on April 17, stating that he cut 24 pounds in four days because “it just made f*cking sense.”
I, for one, have always appreciated Ferguson’s uniqueness and didn’t really make too much of it given both his physical discipline and commitment to mental warfare. Although Ferguson doesn’t appear to take too kindly to any sort of speculation about his actions, I couldn’t help but pick the mind of a professional who is very familiar with the process of cutting weight — Mike Dolce.
First I encourage everyone to watch my full interview with Dolce linked above in order to draw your own interpretations on the subject, but we basically had a conversation about the process and potential consequences of cutting Ferguson’s cited weight within the time frame of back-to-back cuts (three weeks apart).
Dolce brings up a great point in the interview about Ferguson’s background in wrestling and the experience those seasons bring in regards to repetitive cuts and competitive turnarounds that I totally sign off on in regards to easing the criticism of Ferguson’s choice. Couple that with the previously-mentioned dedication of Ferguson and perhaps the former interim champ is right in regards to us not having to worry about his business.
Don’t forget: Ferguson is still one of the few fighters coming into UFC 249 with any sort of semblance to a full and “normal” training camp – something Gaethje can’t exactly say for himself.
In fact, with Gaethje both taking this fight on short notice (against the normal protocol of his camp and style) as well as having to endure whatever ups-and-downs of emotion that accompanied the initial cancellation, then perhaps we are questioning the wrong person when it comes to peak performance.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former interim champ, listing Ferguson -185 and Gaethje +160 as of this writing.
Despite technically having a shorter camp than Ferguson, Gaethje appears to be in shape as he seems to be putting his personal gym at ONX Labs to good use these days, training with names that range from Neil Magny to Kamaru Usman (which is hard not to like). More importantly, Gaethje is a gameday performer who seems to be the right kind of crazy when it comes to both taking and showing up for this sort of a challenge.
And then there’s Ferguson, who … well, let’s just say that I wouldn’t be surprised if any part of his training regimen has had to change during this time. But in all seriousness, Ferguson, too, has the mental fortitude to work through the adversities that are sure to come with making this event a reality.
A guy who I’ve been a big vocal supporter of in the MMA media space, Ferguson, in my mind, has one of the strongest claims to the lightweight throne, which is why I find the meaning of this matchup somewhat hard to swallow. Ferguson was the first to win the vacant title and never lost it, ultimately putting together one of the most impressive winning streaks (active or not) in any division – and that includes the current lightweight kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Nevertheless, MMA is seemingly a sport that cares not of what’s deserved nor does it cater to anyone’s storylines. And when you have a high-risk fighter like Ferguson, then I guess you could say that seeing his story crushed by a shifting hook from Gaethje off the break wouldn’t be all that surprising.
Still, I ultimately give Ferguson more leeway than almost any fighter on the roster due to the archetype he embodies. Not only does Ferguson seem to have an unshakable confidence to push forward, but he also has a style that I like to refer to as “presenting.”
Similar to the process of a good magician, the true magic happens when you can successfully stage an environment for your trick to work. This principle also exists in the poker arena, as a poker game can often be won by the better presenter – not necessarily the player with the better hand.
So basically, whether Ferguson is presenting a false target or setting a high pace, he is ultimately fighting with a bigger purpose in mind.
We saw a beautiful glimpse of this when Ferguson fought another short-notice opponent in Lando Vanatta, as Ferguson smartly threatened his fearless foe with a guillotine – knowing it would force a defensive reaction from Vanatta that would open up space between his lats and triceps – allowing for Ferguson to slide into his patent D’arce choke. Given Gaethje’s propensity to sometimes dip in the pocket, he’ll have to mind his manners when fighting in close quarters with Ferguson.
For that reason, I suspect that Gaethje will look to utilize the slightly more patient approach we saw in his last outing in order to help set up his offensive opportunities. But if Gaethje fails to break down the well conditioned Ferguson with leg kicks and body shots, then I have a harder time seeing him land his patent right hand or sneaky left hook up high.
Lest we not forget, Ferguson also represents himself well in the kicking and bodywork departments that, at least on paper, should be more than a two-way street given the defensive stats. Couple that with the fact that Ferguson typically only tends to take his hardest knocks while kicking (a countering spot that Gaethje traditionally/surprisingly chooses to engage very little in), and I seem to like the betting favorites chances a little bit more.
If any short-notice intangibles like cardio concerns start to rear their head and Gaethje goes all-in early, then he will either knock Ferguson stiff or allow him to live up to his moniker of “El Cucuy” by letting Ferguson back into the fight to haunt him with hellacious elbows and unforgiving pressure.
Despite having more time to think about the intangibles of this contest, I still can’t help but have a sneaky suspicion that this ends up resembling a more violent version of Ferguson’s fight with Rafael dos Anjos, as I see Ferguson’s potent jab plaguing the approaches of Gaethje en route to a frustrating fourth-round stoppage by strikes.
Prediction: Ferguson inside the distance
