MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 248.
UFC 248 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Israel Adesanya (18-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Robert Whittaker(Oct. 5, 2019)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC middleweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 14 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+ Active and attacking guard game
Yoel Romero (13-4 MMA, 9-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 42 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 73.5″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Paulo Costa(Aug. 17, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Olympic silver medalist (wrestling)
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 11 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Incredibly athletic and agile
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Deceptive tempo changes
+ Variates looks and attack levels
^ Dangerous flying knees off fakes
+ Accurate left cross and right hook
+ Good head movement
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Difficult to control in transit
^ Springs and scrambles to safety
Point of interest: Controlling space and time
The main event for UFC 248 features a fun middleweight title fight between two men who seek to control space with unique timing and styles that stand alone from their contemporaries.
Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Israel Adesanya took to martial arts at a young age and is no stranger performing on the big stage.
A cunning martial artist, Adesanya earned his moniker with his creative striking flow that helped him accrue titles in both the boxing and kickboxing arenas. Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to establish his reads and set up his shots accordingly. The reigning champ keeps whipping right hands and crushing check-hooks on a hair-trigger, while offering pinpoint counter-crosses from his southpaw stance.
When feeling in stride, the 30-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether they’re powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood in the water, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.
From hand traps that parlay into elbows to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges that will come in handy for this contest. But for as talented as Adesanya is, he, too, is not beyond being touched by fighters who know when and how to commit power.
Enter Yoel Romero.
One of the most intimidating characters in any division, Romero not only carries the physique of a superhero, but he can move like one too. From the springboard-like aerial assaults he uses to misdirect his opponent’s attention to the immediate explosions he hits once touching down on the mat, Romero is one of the most deceptive distance closers in the game. Using changes in tempo to lull his opposition into a false state of security, Romero can quickly change gears at the drop of a dime, which is probably why most of his opponents are a bit more gun-shy when facing him.
The 42-year-old phenom consistently layers his craft, often getting in on a takedown only to abandon ship at the last second. Typically, this will shake up the defensive radar of a Romero foe, making the takedown a real threat and focus. And as soon as he can get his opponent to drop their level in anticipation for a shot, the former Olympian will then fake low to explode high, unleashing hell in the form of flying knees.
Although Romero’s athleticism and agility allow him to conduct himself like a video-game character, he has seemingly taken the time to sharpen his boxing fundamentals in recent years – something that he tends to show off more from his orthodox stance.
Whether Romero’s hitting inside parries to shift forward off of his rear hand or sitting back and looking to counter with check-hooks and crosses of his own, the perrenial title threat has made undeniable strides in this range. Even though Adesanya will have to be careful to not get sucked into the Cuban’s game, Romero will also have to be not too committed to rolling and returning with punches considering how it’s cost him on the scorecards before.
Next point of interest: Potential wrestling threats
Point of interest: Potential wrestling threats
Given that Romero will have an undeniable wrestling edge on paper, many – including myself – will be curious to see if the title challenger elects to challenge the champion in that area.
Despite the former Olympian mainly using takedowns as defensive triggers or strike setups, we have seen Romero return to his wrestling roots when facing striking threats in the past.
Against Brad Tavares, Romero used takedowns to disrupt the Hawaiian’s striking rhythm, eventually taking rounds en route to a decision win. And as we saw in his first encounter with Robert Whittaker, Romero hit well-timed takedowns early on in the fight that helped him score rounds in the process.
That said, whether Romero pursues well-timed shots in the open or opts for clinch pressure against the fence, Adesanya will be far from a willing dance partner.
Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown a surprising amount of clinch savvy in regards to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper head space to keep strikes at the ready to deliver off the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle the approaches of Romero (who is very familiar with those tools himself).
But as far as defending takedowns go, I would argue that Adesanya has over-performed, proving his critics wrong as of late. Even when revisiting his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of over and underhook leverage.
Since that time, Adesanya has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, smartly fighting grips and protecting his hips, typically while using the cage for assistance. Coupled with his natural base and balance, the eight-year pro seems to be harder and harder to control, demonstrating an active and attacking guard whenever he is taken down.
Still, if Adesanya does end up finding himself on his back in this fight, he will need to be fully aware that he’ll be in Romero’s proverbial danger zone. As we saw in his fight with Lyoto Machida, Romero needs all but one dominant position to punctuate his presence emphatic, conscious-altering punches and elbows.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the sitting champion, listing Adesanya -280 and Romero +240 as of this writing.
Given how dangerous Romero is throughout almost any portion of a fight, it’s hard to be confident in betting against him here. Despite being 42, Romero still shows arguable improvements each time out, especially regarding his comfort with throwing strikes.
Nevertheless, as scary as Romero’s ability to end a fight is, it is also important to remember that even the super athlete himself needs time to recoup energy and make his reads. If Adesanya plays into Romero’s game or makes the mistake of buying anything that the Cuban is selling, then the champion could very well be kissing the canvas within the first couple of rounds.
That said, I suspect that this fight follows a similar spirit to the recent boxing rematch between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder, as I predict that Adesanya draws out Romero’s counters with feints and suffocates his power-punching via length and superior skill. The pick is for Adesanya to make a statement by earning a stoppage within Romero’s realm of the third round.
Prediction: Adesanya inside the distance
