MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 248.
UFC 248 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Zhang Weili (20-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
- Last fight: TKO win over Jessica Andrade(August 31, 2019)
- Camp: Black Tiger Fight Club (China)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC strawweight champion
+ Wushu sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Wide variation of striking arsenal
^ From fundamentals to spinning attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Elbows, knees, trips, tosses
+ Shows serviceable wrestling and scrambling
+ Solid transitional grappling
^ Works well from top and bottom
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Michelle Waterson(Oct. 12, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ 5x muay Thai champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 1 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts, half-steps, pivots
+ Technically sound striker
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Accurate jabs and leg kicks
+ Superb defensive and offensive clinch
^ Solid head positioning and forearm framing
+ Underrated grappling IQ
^ Good getup technique/urgency
Point of interest: Muay Thai mirrors?
The co-main event for UFC 248 features a strawweight title tilt between two ladies who utilize the art of eight limbs, but do so in different ways.
Though listed as a fighter who hails from a wushu sanda background, Zhang Weili might as well have been built in a lab given all the skills she possesses as a fighter. The newly-minted strawweight champion can either come forward aggressively behind a high guard or counter competently while staying light on her feet, all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combinations.
Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang also is not shy in using spinning attacks when the positions call for it. Whether she’s corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering outside-foot approaches with spinning backfists, the 30-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.
However, outside of a natural feel for distance and her previously mentioned high guard, Zhang has shown that she is not beyond being stung by hard counters during her aggressive engagements. With that in mind, I will be curious to see how the current champ handles a fighter who is very familiar with linear attacks and their associated counters.
Enter Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
A technical striker who is no stranger to performing on the big stage, Jedrzejczyk typically likes to start behind her patented jab. Throwing it actively and accurately, the development of the former champion’s jab dates back to the beginning of her career and has been a crucial tool for her success.
Like many muay Thai strikers transitioning into MMA, Jedrzejczyk was extra mindful of takedowns early on, subsequently avoiding throwing kicks comfortably until her very first UFC strawweight title defense. Now, showing competence and confidence in her anti-grappling abilities, the 32-year-old pro will use her jab more for setups rather than safety, confidently attaching well-placed leg kicks and punches to punctuate her presence.
Considering that her Chinese counterpart also has a penchant for targeting the legs, it will be interesting to see which fighter gets a read on the timing and distance first. I will also be curious to see if Jedrzejczyk returns to her old ways in the sense of shelving kicks early given the takedown counters and close-quarter entries that I suspect Zhang will be looking for.
Next point of interest: Close-quarters combat
Point of interest: Close-quarters combat
An area where each fighter seems to find themselves in, I suspect that the clinch will be a key junction in this fight.
As we saw last year in Shenzhen, China, Zhang possesses the power to demolish her opposition with hard knees and elbows within close quarters. Her sanda background also comes in handy when hanging out in this space, showing the ability to hit slick trips and takedowns at the drop of a dime.
Zhang can shoot for takedowns in the open as well, but she tends to get her best work done along the fence. And if Zhang fails on an attempt, she is quick to strike off the break and look for more opportunities to attack.
That said, taking down or controlling Jedrzejczyk in the clinch – particularly at strawweight – has not exactly been the easiest task (especially if you’re not able to catch her off-guard in the open).
Whether Jedrzejczyk is inside the clinch or free to operate on the feet, seldom will you see her out of position or off balance, which is why her takedown defense rating is so high in this division. Jedrzejczyk is also diligent when it comes to her head position in tight, something that helps the former champion disrupt her opponent’s grappling efforts and makes her difficult to hit.
Assisting in this defensive wall is her subtle, but effective forearm framing. When getting ready to break off and strike, the Polish fighter will replace her forehead position with her forearms, creating just enough space for devastating short elbows to follow.
Still, with Zhang also being offensively savvy with similar weapons, I suspect that Jedrzejczyk will be more focused on her defense and ability to stay upright. Not only is Zhang a competent takedown threat, but she also has a freakish ability to both take and stick to a back in transit (which is apropos given what we saw Michelle Waterson achieve in Jedrzejczyk’s last fight).
When working from topside, the Chinese fighter appears to transition smoothly from multiple positions. Nevertheless, I’m not sure how much Zhang will be able to settle in on top given her opposition at hand.
Jedrzejczyk, who does well with things like using the fence to stand safely, also favors the single-leg getup – a technique that I think is still underutilized in MMA.
Whether Jedrzejczyk ends up grounded in full guard or side control, she typically shrimps to half guard so that she can swim inside for a single leg grasp. From here, the former champion will use the leverage created from this grip in a similar spirit to an underhook get-up.
Akin to Demian Maia’s half-guard series, Jedrzejczyk keeps her grasp low, which protects her from your typical guillotine or D’Arce choke counters. But, unlike Maia, the Polish fighter will use this leverage to stand and separate rather than re-wrestle, something that will serve her well in this fight given Zhang’s ability to fight from her back.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the Chinese champion, listing Zhang -160 and Jedrzejczyk +140 as of this writing.
Although part of me suspects that the current public sentiment on Jedrzejczyk (as well as fickle things like recency bias and a comparison of Instagram accounts) could be playing a small part in the steady widening of this line, I can totally understand why Zhang is favored to win.
The champion may come up slightly short in the length category but offers ample aggression and technique in boxing range to either blitz or counter Jedrzejczyk with fight-changing power. That said, Zhang may have to sell out early if she means to maximize her chances of retaining her title.
Like many muay Thai stylists, Jedrzejczyk has more of a building nature to her game, which means that she’s often at her slowest at the beginning of the fight (hence her traditionally taking more shots early on in contests). The potential problem for Zhang, however, is that offense is a two-way street that becomes extra potent if your defense isn’t in order.
Not only has Zhang been stung in two of her four UFC outings, but she has yet to face a fighter who throws persistent jabs and leg kicks at Jedrzejczyk’s level. Zhang will also be having to deal with Jedrzejczyk’s vaunted output in a potential five-round affair, which is a call we’ve not seen Zhang have to answer in or out of the UFC as of yet.
As a person of Chinese descent, part of me will be rooting for Zhang to do well given what she stands for and the adversity she’s been through. But as an unbiased analyst (who is probably over-correcting the steering wheel a bit here), I gotta go with what I see.
I suspect Zhang will get off to a great start in this fight (as many of Jedrzejczyk’s opponents often do), but if she doesn’t put a stamp on things within the first two rounds, then I see Jedrzejczyk’s jab opening up the rest of her arsenal as she pulls away down the stretch of a competitive affair.
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk by decision
