MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 247.
UFC 247 takes place Saturday at Toyota Center in Houston. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Valentina Shevchenko (18-3 MMA, 7-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Decision win over Liz Carmouche(August 10, 2019)
- Camp: Tiger Muay Thai (Thailand)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ 17x muay Thai and K-1 championships
+ 9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro)
+ Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan)
+ 3 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Excellent footwork
^ Seldom out of position
+ Accurate check hook and counter cross
+ Hard knees, elbows and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
^ Good trips and tosses
+ Strong positional grappler
^ Flashes scramble and submission savvy
Katlyn Chookagian (13-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Decision win over Jennifer Maia(Nov. 2, 2019)
- Camp: Team Renzo Gracie (New York)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ CFFC flyweight and bantamweight titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Karate and boxing background
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 2 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints, footwork and head movement
+ High-volume striker
^ Solid striking flow
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Shows offensive and defensive fundamentals
+ Superb leg dexterity
^ Active and attacking guard
Point of interest: Scoring on a southpaw
The co-main event in Houston features a flyweight title fight that will see a talented contender attempt to take out a savvy southpaw striker.
Though lacking experience against UFC-level lefties in her pro career, Katlyn Chookagian shows a lot of promise in regards to the set of skills she brings to the table.
Coming from a background in both karate and boxing, Chookagian pays homage to each martial art in the way in which she conducts the traffic of her striking. Utilizing solid footwork and feints, Chookagian can either play the distance game off of her vast array of kicks or steadily box her way into range.
When opting to do the latter, Chookagian will often look to set up her offense through prodding jabs. Although finding said shots can sometimes be hard when facing a southpaw, Chookagian has shown that she’s not necessarily reliant on leading with her left, as the challenger arguably uses that side better as a check/in a countering fashion.
Whether she’s throwing away a right hand to land a left hook or doubling up on a cross to momentarily shift her stance, Chookagian has also gotten a bit more clever in her offensive approaches. And when she is feeling in stride, the 31-year-old American’s striking flow will steadily come to life as she looks to punctuate her presence with hard kicks to either the head or legs of her opposition.
Although Chookagian’s defensive head movement seems much more symbiotic with her punches, it still seems like she is available to be countered when throwing kicks – something that could prove problematic against her current counterpart.
Enter Valentina Shevchenko.
Indoctrinated into martial arts through her family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat since age 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times).
A counter fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check-hooks to counter crosses on a hair-trigger. And whenever someone tries to step off to her weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults that pair perfectly with liver kicks to help keep her opposition corralled.
Still, Shevchenko’s willingness to wait for the counter has costed her on the scorecards in certain bouts, which makes me wonder what her temperament will be heading into a matchup with a fighter who can quietly (if we’re not counting Chookagian’s kiai’s) steal rounds with volume and variety.
Next point of interest: Grappling initiations
Point of interest: Grappling initiations
With both fighters carrying solid ground games in their back pockets, I will be curious to see who looks to initiate grappling exchanges first.
Shevchenko has a knack for hitting takedowns in a countering fashion that may come to light given her current counterpart’s approach, but I could also see Chookagian exercising her steadily-improving wrestling shots in an effort to get the jump on the champion.
Utilizing her previously-mentioned head movement, Chookagain does a good job of rolling her head off her crosses as she parlays the level-change into a decent double-leg that could score her some points. But if she fails to take Shevchenko off of her feet, then I suspect the majority of Chookagian’s initial grappling efforts will take her into her opponent’s wheelhouse of the clinch.
No longer underrated inside of the clinch, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does the Kyrgyzstani wield mean elbows off the break, but she also does deceptive work to the body with knees, something that could pay dividends in a five-round affair.
Although many high-level strikers have failed to develop grappling games in MMA, I think that fighters who come from traditional muay Thai backgrounds bring an aspect of grappling that is typically understated. A devastating striking art with an often-overlooked emphasis on clinch wrestling, Shevchenko embraced and excelled in the grappling aspects of muay Thai, which in turn granted her success while competing in that sport (as well as this one).
Still, Shevchenko is ultimately not beyond being taken down in MMA, which is why Chookagian could make for an interesting dance partner. The American-born Armenian is a Renzo Gracie brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who has submission chops from both top and bottom.
Chookagian also demonstrates excellent leg dexterity when fighting from her back, offering triangle-armbar setups that command her opponent’s respect. Nevertheless, Chookagian, like the champion, has also shown that she can get stuck on her back for long enough to lose a round – making the battle for top position all the more important.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public and are clearly confident in the sitting champion, listing Shevchenko -1100 and Chookagian +700 as of this writing.
Considering how easy it is to fall victim to tall odds in these divisions, I tend to temper my enthusiasm when I see betting spreads this wide on what are ultimately two very capable fighters. I may be an admitted fan of Shevchenko’s stylings, but it’s not crazy to fathom the flyweight queen falling to a classic MMA upset.
That said, I don’t think that upset comes to fruition at UFC 247.
Sure, Chookagian has been able to squeeze out scorecards in fights where she was taken down and technically out-landed in significant strikes, but I’m not sure she can get away with painting her patent picture of volume to the judges without opening herself up to counters in the process. If Shevchenko can’t catch Chookagian with a heavy spinning assault or liver kick early, then I suspect her counter strikes and speed will scare off the challenger sufficiently enough to earn a clear decision on the scorecards.
Prediction: Shevchenko by decision
