MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 247.
UFC 247 takes place Saturday at Toyota Center in Houston. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Jon Jones (25-1 MMA, 19-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 84″
- Last fight: Decision win over Thiago Santos(July 6, 2018)
- Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC light heavyweight champion
+ JUCO national wrestling title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Athletic and agile
+ Creative and dynamic striker
^ Preternatural instincts and improv
+ Effectively dictates range
^ Teep kicks, oblique kicks, hand posts
+ Deceptively effective inside clinch
^ Superb hand-fighting /grip disruption
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
Dominick Reyes (12-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Chris Weidman(Oct. 18, 2019)
- Camp: Cobra Kai (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ Wrestling accolades and experience
+ 7 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Explosive athlete
^ Measures distance well
+ Solid striking flow
^ Variates well to body and legs
+ Accurate left cross and power kicks
+ Shows good wrestling fundamentals
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Rides and transitions well from topside
Point of interest: ‘Enter The Jones’
The main event for UFC 247 features a light heavyweight title fight with an undefeated prospect who will attempt to dethrone one of MMA’s last bastion of current legends in Jon Jones.
There have been plenty of theories pitched over the years in regards to how to defeat Jones, but few fighters have been able to give legs to even the most reasonable of assertions. And despite the champion’s last title defense sparking more serious talk about his perceived striking skills, the overall results he draws from his process is hard to deny.
Though blessed with some solid athletic gifts, Jones’ almost-unflinching computing of striking exchanges has helped him stay ahead of his contemporaries throughout the years.
Seldom will you see Jones throw the same sequence of strikes within the same minute or even round – unless, that is, he is trying to set up his opposition or walk them into something sinister. And with him being one of the most tried and true stance switchers in MMA, Jones can exercise a plethora of options available to him to help further his agenda.
Whether he’s hiding behind hand posts or disrupting his opponent’s approach with oblique kicks and body assaults, Jones is clearly not shy when it comes to utilizing his length. Still, I would also argue that Jones has proven he isn’t reliant on it either.
Not only does Jones have the aforementioned-abilities to navigate exchanges, he also has made quiet strides in his boxing ability in an effort to help shore up the range that most of his opponents risk life and limb to maintain. Even against the breakneck pressure that Daniel Cormier brought to their second meeting, Jones was able to pivot or shift his way into counter punches like never before in his career.
That said, Jones also has experienced his hardest shots when shifting in or out of this range and is not beyond getting himself crossed up in retreat – something that could prove costly against someone who can match him in both size and speed.
Enter Dominick Reyes.
A former collegiate football player who fights out of a southpaw stance, Reyes brings in a host of well rounded, physical attributes to compliment his skills. And despite his background and on-paper experience, the 30-year-old appears to have a natural feel for the striking arts.
Displaying a preternatural sense for range, Reyes uses pressure to draw out reactions. He has hard hooks and kicks that keep his opposition honest, but it’s his pinpoint left cross that acts like a battering ram, both coming forward and off the counter.
Reyes also does well at varying his attack levels, going to the body or targeting the legs with regularity. Should the striking savvy that seems well beyond his years stack up to the senior fighter, then perhaps Reyes can land similar shots that the past two Jones opponents have – particularly in the kicking department.
However, if Reyes is too eager to look for counters in retreat and concede space (as he’s shown at times in the past), then he could end up inadvertently backing himself into the fence and inviting Jones to test him in other ways.
Next point of interest: Crucial clinch warfare
Point of interest: Crucial clinch warfare
Considering where the biggest possible skills disparity lies on paper, one can’t help but wonder if Jones will attempt/be able to take this fight to the floor.
Despite a limited sample size to draw from, Reyes – who was a decorated wrestler in high school – demonstrates solid wrestling chops in transit, whether he is using fundamentals to defend takedowns or exercising what appears to be a more than serviceable takedown game (both in the open and against the fence). Although I’m not sure how viable offensive wrestling options will be against Jones, I do believe his defense could present problems.
Reyes shows absurd athleticism and balance from multiple positions that have bailed him out before and, more importantly, appears to be hard-wired to properly scramble with immediacy whenever in disadvantageous spots (something that I suspect he can thank his grappling coach Joe Stevenson for). And if the 30-year-old talent finds himself working from topside, he displays solid rides and decision making in regards to when he should sink in his hooks and commit to a position.
Nevertheless, if Reyes means to either deter or get himself into any advantageous grappling positions in this fight, then he will first have to safely navigate past the proven monster that is Jones’ clinch game.
Even against Cormier, a world-class wrestler and all-time MMA clinch artist in his own right, Jones was able to shut down his offense in close by utilizing creative wrist controls to disrupt the former light heavyweight champion’s game and open up his own.
Using his long frame to multitask inside the clinch, Jones can implement wrenching over-hooks (a la the ones that famously injured Glover Teixeira’s shoulder), all while using his free hand to either strike or help secure wrist-feeds to his over-hooking hand. This intricate tie-up also allows Jones the leverage to come over the top with elbows regardless of whether he is still holding onto wrists.
For those who have not wrestled or grappled in some form, wrist control is the unsung gatekeeper of advancing position, as a solid hand-fighter can befuddle even the best of grapplers.
Whether it be in the clinch or on the floor, Jones’ hand-fighting skills and positional understanding allows him to almost mimic one of those pictures of a giant squid consuming a ship – simultaneously denying his opposition space while taking them into deeper and deeper of waters.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Jones – 420 and Reyes +335 as of this writing.
Despite being admittedly hesitant to pledge full confidence in my pick on the breakdown video attached, I can’t stay that I’m that surprised to see this wide spread considering past betting lines on Jones’ fights. And though further tape study has only solidified my official pick since, I do still stand by my previous proclamations of Reyes being a live dog.
Not only does Reyes have a vaunted left hand that could wreak havoc in the form of either an uppercut or counter cross (especially if Jones over-reaches with his own left cross from a mirrored stance), but the challenger also carries a kicking ability that could replicate some of the early success (in regards to shots landed) that both Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith found in their fights with Jones.
Picking Reyes to find those shots, however, gets a bit trickier when considering that he seldom does the main thing that I believe has traditionally troubled Jones the most — and that’s the ability to consistently pressure and counter off of kicks.
In both victory and defeat, it’s not been uncommon to see Jones gingerly walk out of the cage, as his kick-heavy approach to dissuade pressure seems to perhaps come at a cost to his frame. When fighters like Cormier, Alexander Gustafsson and Thiago Santos (or even Lyoto Machida back at UFC 140, to an extent) have aggressively countered off of Jones’ kicking inclinations, they were able to find some of the best success we’ve seen scored on the champion to date.
Should Reyes stay composed and show the technical acumen to successfully draw Jones into a kickboxing contest, then we could see the challenger open up some surprising opportunities through either attritive kicks or unexpected explosions. But if Reyes isn’t able to make any meaningful marks early, then I suspect that he will have a hard time both keeping pace with Jones as the fight wears on, as well as confidently earning rounds with quiet leg and bodywork (like he did with Volkan Oezdemir).
Though I do suspect that Reyes’ takedown defense and scrambling ability will be good enough to keep him off the mat for prolonged periods of time, I can’t help but see that factor, as well as Reyes’ speed and southpaw savvy, forcing Jones to fight in a place where he reigns supreme: the clinch.
Reyes does not seem like one who easily raises their flag to the wolves, but the pick is Jones to survive some early scares and pull away in the later rounds en route to a lesson-learning decision win for the perennial pound-for-pound king. But if Jones decides to, once again, try and prove a point by beating someone at their own game – then it could cost him here.
Prediction: Jones by decision
