MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 246.
UFC 246 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Conor McGregor (21-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov (Oct. 6, 2018)
- Camp: SBG Ireland (Dublin, Ireland)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight and featherweight champion
+ Cage Warriors lightweight and featherweight titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 18 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile mover
+ Excellent footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left cross
^ Adjusts attack angles nicely
+ Diverse kicking arsenal
+ Improved wrestling/takedown defense
^ Solid base and balance
+ Underrated grappling acumen
+/- 1 MMA fight in the last 38 months
Donald Cerrone (36-13 MMA, 23-10 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 36 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 73″
- Last fight: TKO loss to Justin Gaethje (Sept. 14, 2019)
- Camp: BMF Ranch (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple muay Thai titles
^ 28-0 as a pro kickboxer
+ 10 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Intelligent strike setups
^ Feints, reads, reacts
+ Devastating head kicks
+ Accurate and intercepting knees
+ Hard leg kicks
^ Most landed in UFC history
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Solid level-changing takedown
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Active and attacking guard
+/- 4-9 against UFC-level southpaws
Point of interest: Southpaw shootout at Cowboy’s corral
The main event for UFC 246 features a fun stylistic clash between two fighters who will ultimately be looking to control space.
Considering Donald Cerrone’s history against southpaw strikers who can pressure, I can understand why some may have concerns about this particular matchup for “Cowboy.”
However, with pressure, in general, being a common threat throughout Cerrone’s career, the 14-year pro has sharpened elements of his game to help him keep distance and dissuade the aggression that is typically headed his way.
A pronounced muay Thai striker who loves to play in space, Cerrone has always embraced his kicking arsenal to help him gauge and maintain his preferred range. Cerrone also carries his patented check-knee up the middle, which adds a crucial layer to his preservation of said space (particularly when pitted against shorter opposition).
In recent years, the 36-year-old veteran has proven to provide much more than the kicks that comprise his highlight reel, showing strides in his ability to connect punches inside the pocket or in combination.
Working with everyone from Brandon Gibson to Joe Schilling, the more recent iterations of Cerrone have him moving his head and torso offline and at angles, unloading his punches with slightly different mechanics than before. Often punching his way out of exchanges with his left hook, Cerrone will feed his newfound flow into his devastating head kicks, displaying an arsenal that’s much more symbiotic.
Regardless of what weapons Cerrone chooses to arm himself with, he will need to draw quick considering the fast start that will likely be headed his way on Saturday.
Enter the Irishman, Conor McGregor.
Despite often being labeled a counter striker, McGregor depends heavily on pressure to help kickstart his rhythm and open up opportunities.
Operating out of a southpaw stance, McGregor masterfully dictates distance, tossing out feints and fakes that take up a presence of their own. The former champ-champ commands a diverse arsenal of strikes, whether he is throwing front kicks, spinning kicks or shovel hooks.
However, these weapons are primarily used in a corralling effort to get McGregor’s opponents into his preferred kill zone.
A well-known tool in the Irish fighter’s wheelhouse, McGregor’s left cross is about as dynamic as they come. Whether he is launching his left from inside-slips over the top or taking the inside angle off the counter, the 31-year-old phenom’s placement is pristine.
What is most impressive about McGregor’s accuracy is the way in which he utilizes angles to adjust to his oncoming opposition (who are typically trying to enter or escape as far from the power side as possible). From his step-offs to the side, to the way in which McGregor pivots his feet, all allow for the SBG Ireland fighter to pitch his punches in a variety of forms.
That said, the potential problem with McGregor’s somewhat-bladed stance is that the weight distribution can leave him open to leg kicks, which was something that fighters like Dennis Siver, Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway were able to score with consistently despite losing. Considering that Cerrone is the fighter who has landed the most leg kicks in UFC history, I will be curious to see if McGregor elects to keep his somewhat lackadaisical defense toward leg kicks or gets more diligent with his checks for this matchup.
McGregor is not beyond catching kicks and countering but typically does so by catching the kick and sweeping the opposite leg, which could be tricky against a caliber of kicker like Cerrone, who also has a wicked guard game to fall back on.
Next point of interest: Grappling reminders
Point of interest: Grappling reminders
With both fighters – to varying degrees – not getting enough credit for their grappling abilities, each man will have ample opportunity to remind the masses that they are, in fact, complete mixed martial artists.
Cerrone, who is discounted much less in that department, has been stealing arms and strangling oncomers since he arrived on the WEC scene. The young (at that time) Jackson-Wink fighter was even developing his wrestling abilities back then, out-wrestling and scrambling one of the division’s best wrestlers in future champion Benson Henderson (before, of course, being submitted for the one and only time in his career thus far).
Since then, Cerrone has continued to work a quiet wrestling theme to help balance out the renowned threats off of his back.
Wielding a well-timed double-leg takedown that he executes in a level-changing manner, Cerrone will typically go to them to deter the oncoming pressure of a striker or in a seed-planting fashion to get into his opponent’s head early. Once Cerrone can get his foe to the floor, you can expect to see the skilled transitional grappler create and advance through scrambles like they’re second nature.
Cerrone is also a solid guard passer who parlays his pathways into quick back-takes when available. And if he misses in transition, Cerrone is consistent with punishing opponents as they try to make it back to their feet.
On paper, these skill sets should certainly serve Cerrone well, but I do warn anyone who is discounting the counter grappling of McGregor.
Not only is McGregor a natural athlete who possesses agile get-ups like a prime B.J. Penn, but he has also seemingly worked hard on his wrestling during the later chapters of his career, demonstrating excellent defense against the fence, in particular. And despite ultimately being dismantled by Khabib Nurmagomedov in his last outing, McGregor still displayed improved wrestling defense in the open and in general, objectively out-performing both the standards set upon him, as well as the recent crop of Nurmagomedov opponents.
Regardless of whether or not you buy into McGregor’s excuses accompanied with his last fight, the improvements and skills he showed should not be something that’s overlooked. That said, it’s hard to deny that McGregor’s grappling sample size is a tricky one.
When looking at the dope mount he hit on Dennis Siver or the Curu-Curu sweep he scored on Nate Diaz, it would seem that McGregor has a preternatural ability for picking up technical detail, and I’m not ready to count him out from a grappling perspective here. However, if McGregor does end up on top of Cerrone, he will need to be extra mindful of basic principles like keeping hands off the mat.
Cerrone, who typically prefers launching into his patent triangle chokes immediately upon touching down onto the mat, can work wonders should you grant him the leverage of an overhook to ply his leg dexterity. But unless McGregor is hurt or fatigued first, then I suspect that the grappling stanzas and scrambles should stay fairly competitive for as long as they last.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
As forecasted by myself and many, the public continues to put money behind the Irish superstar, listing McGregor -330 and Cerrone +270 as of this writing.
However, as I stated in my initial “Point/Counterpoint” article on this matchup, the betting favorite that is McGregor will also be this battle’s biggest intangible.
If you don’t count his special boxing attraction with Floyd Mayweather, then McGregor has only one fight in the last 38 months. In that span, McGregor has faced a slew of issues ranging from physical assault charges to sexual assault allegations, which makes it nearly impossible to know his mental health or mindset heading into Saturday.
By all accounts, McGregor seems to be in the shape of his life, starting off this fight camp in good form while reconnecting with familiar faces. Still, coming in light or not, one can’t help but wonder how McGregor will perform at welterweight coming off a year-plus layoff – especially should this contest extend past the second round.
Cerrone might be subject to self-admitted slow starts, but he has also shown the ability to weather the storm, get back on the saddle and ride hard in the later rounds. But again, back to tricky sample sizes, McGregor has only had two fights at this weight class, which makes forecasting difficult.
The general population seems to have McGregor’s first fight with Nate Diaz (as well as an irrelevant boxing match) burned into their brains, as the “bad cardio” narrative seemingly has been drawn into the cement. Although I don’t think nor claim that McGregor will have the cardio advantage here, I’m also extremely hesitant to write him off as fast as his critics have in this regard.
Sure, he mismanaged pace and began to gas before getting stung by Diaz at UFC 196, but the adjustments he displayed in both technique and pace management to overcome those same trappings at UFC 202 was, at least to me, an ultra-impressive performance that always reminds me to leave room for surprises when it comes to McGregor.
Nevertheless, I ultimately believe that bodywork will be the key to victory for both fighters in this contest.
For Cerrone, his check-knee up the middle may prove to be the litmus test for McGregor. Historically, fighters above 5-foot-9 in height have typically been the tipping point for those who tend to falter under this technique.
That said, fighters who also share this height with McGregor – Benson Henderson and Rafael dos Anjos – were able to work past Cerrone’s patented threat through their understanding of southpaw striking lanes and angles. This is also the likely reason why southpaws, in general, have proven to be stylistic kryptonite for “Cowboy” (who could arguably sit at 3-10 against UFC-level lefties when looking at his last fight with Henderson).
If McGregor – a southpaw striker who can find both offensive and defensive angles – gets his feel for space early, then I would not be surprised to see his quiet but consistent bodywork pay dividends in helping him hone in on the head of Cerrone. The pick is for McGregor to find his finish on the feet before the end of the second frame.
Prediction: McGregor inside the distance
