MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 245.
UFC 245 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Max Holloway (21-4 MMA, 17-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 28 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: Decision win over Frankie Edgar (July 27, 2019)
- Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Attacks off angles/manages distance well
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ 83 percent takedown defense rate
+ Deceptively counters clinches/grappling
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition
Alexander Volkanovski (20-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Jose Aldo (May 11, 2019)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 11 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved striking ability
^ Dangerous right hand
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Dirty boxing, elbows, knees
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Excellent top game
^ Aggressive ground striker
Point of interest: Battles of builders
The co-main event for UFC 245 features a fantastic matchup for the featherweight title between two men who build offense in different ways.
An acclaimed wrestler-turned-rugby player, Alexander Volkanovski initially stepped onto the scene as a come-forward fighter who typically approached the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut from his compact stance. A natural athlete, Volkanovski shows little issue when having to crash distance with his patent kicks and crosses, strikes that have been typically set up off of prodding jabs.
However, since moving to City Kickboxing in New Zealand, Volkanovski seemingly has sharpened his feints, footwork and overall striking fundamentals, measuring and moving in space more smoothly and on balance than before. The 32-year-old title challenger will now change up his combination approach, doing things like leading with kicks or finishing off combinations with jabs.
Volkanovski also has taken some of the feinting swagger from his City Kickboxing stablemates, showing or throwing away certain shots to land others with a bigger picture in mind. Nevertheless, as effective as Volkanovski’s newfound approach has been (especially in his last fight), he’ll have to be extra careful to not leave any proverbial bread crumbs behind that the building champion can use to follow him home.
Enter Max Holloway.
A Hawaiian striking machine who stormed the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Holloway, who was already improving from fight to fight, turned his biggest corner after his 2015 encounter with Cub Swanson.
Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from Holloway, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the current featherweight king makes for a hard read on the feet.
When feeling in stride, the 28-year-old looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway hypothetically can take a fight in many different directions.
That all said, it’s the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable. Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway not only will build in his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game.
For example, against fighters like Ricardo Lamas and Frankie Edgar, Holloway ate a healthy dose of leg kicks throughout each battle from a statistical standpoint. However, in looking closer at the exchanges, you will see Holloway steadily get a read on the attacks – evading, checking and countering the kicks by the end of the contest.
Still, offensive volume – no matter how clever – comes with a price. And with both men showing a propensity to eat right hands, I will be curious to see who can take advantage of that in this contest.
Next point of interest: Close quarters combat
Point of interest: Close quarters combat
Given the propensity Volkanovski has for finding his way into some sort of clinch warfare, I will be curious to see how successful the Australian-born Macedonian is when it comes to taking this fight into close quarters.
When not sprinkling in the occasional spinning elbow to his dirty boxing repertoire, Volkanovski is an aggressive takedown hunter who will relentlessly chain from single to double-legs in close, looking to suck his opposition’s hips from the fence.
However, if Volkanovski intends on taking things to the mat, he will not only have to consistently corral his man to the fence (which seems to be one of his footwork strengths, for what that’s worth), but he’ll also have to show the ability to take and hold Holloway down.
The Hawaiian champion’s superb striking may hallmark a large part of his brand, but Holloway has quietly made consistent improvements to his counter-grappling (only being taken down five times in the past five years). Even when having his takedown defense tested by an NCAA All-American wrestler in Lamas, Holloway successfully thwarted his offensive shots, smoothly re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own.
Not only does Holloway display the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the breaks, something that could be worth watching in this fight.
More importantly, whether Holloway is conducting himself from the clinch or inside the chaos of transition, he has always prioritized protecting his neck and head by either maintaining an upright posture in close or keeping his hands in the proper neighborhood to defend grasps. This note, in particular, is useful when considering his current counterpart’s acumen from the front headlock position.
Nevertheless, if Volkanovski is able to meaningfully take Holloway down, then the champion will be forced to deal with the challenger’s honey badger-like behavior.
Staking his claim to positions like he is fighting for his last meal, Volkanovski will immediately break down any posts his opponent looks to use in a standing effort, unabashedly swarming them with strikes while floating from wrestling rides. Volkanovski, who holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is also quietly competent in submissions and has no issue snatching up a limb should Holloway leave anything behind.
That said, if Volkanovski is able to get on top, I will be more curious to see if he can prioritize establishing and keeping position above all else.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the sitting champion, listing Holloway -170 and Volkanovski +150 as of this writing.
Considering the current featherweight run and the overall body of work for Holloway, it’s hard to argue with him being favored to win on the betting lines. However, I will state that Volanovski is a very live underdog given his skill set and potential ceiling.
Even if Volkanovski’s grappling strengths aren’t enough to get things down to the floor, his ever-improving striking is a real x-factor in this contest, and his looming right hand could easily change the trajectory of the fight.
Whether you look at fights with Lamas, Brian Ortega or Dustin Poirier, right hands – in all forms and fashions – have been one of the common culprits for Holloway in regards to strikes landed. Leg kicks, despite making an argument as to why the statistics aren’t as dramatic as they seem on a previous page, are also something that has traditionally landed on the champion – something I suspect Volkanovski will look to score with.
Volkanovski went 50-for-59 in leg kicks against former featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo, who is one of the most hailed leg kickers in the division’s history. But as impressive as Volkanovski’s performance against Aldo was (and it absolutely was impressive, mind you), Aldo – regardless of whether or not you feel he was at his best that night – is a fighter who typically needs pockets to recoup and space to operate, making the Macedonian a nightmare matchup.
Whereas now, Volanovski is tasked with imposing his strengths on one of the few fighters who can match his pace and pressure. And it’s not that I don’t think Volkanovski isn’t skillful or athletic enough to hold Holloway to the fire for five rounds, because I believe that he is; I just don’t like the idea of Holloway being anyone’s first taste of a potential five-round fight.
Volanovksi has made it to Round 4 twice outside of the octagon, but has never fought or been scheduled to fight five rounds in the UFC, which makes it hard to be confident he can change gears when he needs to against one of the best five-round fighters in the sport today.
Although I could totally see the chickens coming home to roost for Holloway in the form of an overhand right or spinning elbow knockout given the wars he’s been in, it’s ultimately hard not to side with the Hawaiian champion to keep things at his preferred range as he pulls away down the stretch of what I believe will be a competitive 25-minute affair.
Prediction: Holloway by decision
