MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 245.
UFC 245 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Kamaru Usman (15-1 MMA, 10-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Decision win over Tyron Woodley (March 2, 2019)
- Camp: Hard Knocks 365 (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC welterweight champion
+ “The Ultimate Fighter 21” alum
+ NCAA Division II national champ
+ 3x NCAA All-American
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Improved overall striking
^ Puts together punches well
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ In the open or against the fence
+ Superb top game and control
^ Rides and transitions intelligently
Colby Covington (15-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Robbie Lawler (August 3, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC interim welterweight title
+ 2x NCAA Division I All-American wrestler
+ Pac-10 wrestling champion
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
^ Well-conditioned athlete
+ Improved overall striking
^ Footwork, combos, head movement
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ Chains attempts, constantly re-wrestles
+ Tremendous top game
^ Pins, strikes, cooks to submission
+ Superb wrist-rides and positional awareness
Point of interest: Pace and pressure
The main event for UFC 245 features a feud for the welterweight title between two wrestlers who have evolved into well rounded fighters familiar with the themes of pace and pressure.
The sitting champion, Kamaru Usman, stepped onto the MMA stage with a primary skill set of wrestling and has made marked jumps in his striking ability under the care of Henri Hooft.
A Dutch style striking coach who emphasizes pressure, Hooft has been able to help Usman’s power and presence blossom on the feet, throwing shots much smoother in transition and off of breaks. In addition, the Nigeria-born fighter also appears to be a natural when it comes to his footwork.
Whether he is feinting forward or shifting his stance in combination, Usman will persistently corral his opposition toward the cage, attacking them with impunity whenever they step near it. The 32-year-old champion is also smart about shifting away from his opponent’s power side when advancing, all while throwing corralling hooks that help him close space.
Nevertheless, as efficient as this approach has been for Usman, he is still not beyond reproach defensively, which means successfully suffocating space will be crucial against a high-output opponent like Colby Covington.
A lifelong wrestler, Covington has been steadily improving solid striking fundamentals from fight to fight, something that assists his high pressure and pace. From not crossing his feet to resetting his angles on the outside, Covington can create lanes for his favored kicks and crosses off of his power side – shots that are often set up by his jab.
The 31-year-old American also does a decent job of rolling off of his crosses, keeping his head off the center line while throwing and moving. Though many will still point to Covington’s defensive behavior in his fight against Demian Maia, I have to imagine that a lot of that can be attributed to his prioritization of takedown defense and pressure (not to mention Maia’s underrated ability to strike and make fights ugly).
In his fight with Robbie Lawler, Covington displayed much better distance and risk management, cleaning up both his technique, as well as his “where’s” and “when’s.” That said, high-volume offense is a potent two-way street that the American challenger needs to be mindful of – particularly with his propensity to cut.
Ultimately, I see stanzas on the feet coming down to whether or not Usman can successfully (and smartly) corral and close down space on Covington. And if he can, then that’s when I suspect to see the majority of wrestling exchanges between these two.
Next point of interest: Wrestling advantages?
Point of interest: Wrestling advantages?
Given that wrestling is such a big part of each fighter’s game, many – including myself – are curious to see how these men will stack up come Saturday night.
Both men are accomplished collegiate wrestlers who were arguably more talented than their credentials led on, as they both seem to carry similar chips on their shoulders despite coming from different divisions.
Usman, who wrestled at a Division II level for three years (where he was also a two-time national finalist), has always shown the freakish ability to both finish and defend shots from sometimes surprising positions. Coupled with his work ethic and determination, Usman was able to over-perform in a multitude of ways, especially considering that he didn’t even start wrestling until mid-way through high school.
After helping high-level fighters with their own wrestling, Usman ended making the jump into mixed martial arts, where he has steadily built onto his imposing wrestling game and presence. Whether he is hitting takedowns in the open or chaining his attempts along the fence, Usman has, for the most part, been able to do what he wants to wrestling-wise inside of the octagon.
Freakish takedown ability aside, Usman also bears an impressive intelligence in transition that could help aid him in his matchup. Demonstrating excellent positional awareness, Usman always seems to make high-percentage choices whether he is passing or punching. Using suffocating wrestling rides that stymie everything from posts to submission attempts, Usman will seamlessly hit his transitions while steaming his opposition underneath him.
The Nigerian fighter was able to do this to a highly credentialed wrestler in Tyron Woodley to take the title earlier this year, but Woodley – even at his best – hasn’t been an offensively minded wrestler in nearly a decade, nor has he really made his money inside of the scramble, which are characteristics that the newly minted champion will have to deal with when tying up with Covington.
Covington, who carries the higher wrestling accolades on paper, also appears to have carried a similar competitive style and swagger when going back to look at his collegiate career. The brash American has always been a relentless workhorse in competition that was known for his killer pace. And whenever Covington saw or found an edge on the mat, he wasn’t afraid to express himself to his opponent, the officials or the crowd (often appearing to get into opponents’ heads/break them mentally).
In fact, this approach has served him well when facing bigger, stronger, and possibly more fundamentally-sound wrestlers like Nick Amuchastegui (a highly-ranked and credentialed wrestler that beat names like Ed Ruth in college). Despite Amuchastegui looking to be the better wrestler early and often, Covington was eventually able to break down his Stanford foe by the end of the match – even making time to shoutout the crowd while he rode his way to victory.
In MMA, we have seen similar trends from Covington, who has shown he can ground fighters efficiently inside of a cage.
A tremendous grappler from topside, Covington uses everything from wrist-rides to leg and lever disruptions to break an opponent’s balance and spirit. Whether he is spiraling out the base of those who try to stand or striking them with impunity from positional rides and pins, Covington is steadily becoming a master chef when it comes to cooking his counterparts underneath him.
No one has been able to consistently take down either fighter, so I will be curious to see who – if anyone – finds a grappling advantage.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be liking the sitting champion, listing Usman -175 and Covington +155 as of this writing.
Considering the polarizing nature that Covington has created for himself, seeing him at dog odds isn’t surprising no matter who the matchup is. That said, I’m also not shocked to see Usman installed as the favorite in this spot.
Usman has looked nothing short of unstoppable since hitting the UFC stage, showing all the skills necessary to both get to and hold a world title. The Nigerian champ even appears to check the often-questioned boxes of having a solid chin and gas tank, seldom ever seeming to be hurt or tired in his fights. Couple that with his perceived power edge, and it’s easy to make the case that Usman could be a bad matchup for Covington on paper.
Still, despite it not being a popular perspective, I can’t help but think that the “bad matchup” theory goes both ways here.
Aside from a short-notice showing against Maia (who statistically shot less than normal/had a potentially fight-ending position taken away from him early), Usman hasn’t really encountered fighters who tried to (or arguably even could) push an offensive grappling agenda on him at the UFC level. And with said wrestling advantages at play, many of Usman’s opponent’s ended up shelving a lot of their normal offensive output in fear of the looming takedown threats.
So, with that in mind, I do wonder how Usman’s game will play against Covington, a fighter that – at the very least – can contend with the champion in wrestling exchanges. And if Covington can do enough to keep a majority of this fight standing (especially if he’s making Usman work hard to prevent that from happening), then I will be curious to see how the sitting champ handles the volume that will be headed his way.
Don’t get me wrong: Usman’s power could easily make Covington pay for his high-output approach if he zigs when he should’ve zagged, but I’m not sure how high those percentages are when considering that Usman has only technically knocked one person out inside of the octagon. And though Covington’s propensity to cut makes him wear damage much worse, the American-born fighter shows a strong chin and mental fortitude, as he appears to get right back on the clock no matter what happens to him.
Usman, on the other hand, has shown signs of getting emotional when getting caught (as seen in fights with Hayder Hassan and Emil Meek), something that I think could quietly play a key factor in this contest.
It’s no secret that Covington has the ability to get under his opponent’s skin, something that was apparent when he shared a spot at the ESPN analyst desk with Usman after his last victory. Usman, who was actually on duty as an analyst that night, seemingly forgot all about both his job and fight promotion, trying to get things started right then and there.
Now, I’m not criticizing Usman for doing this, per se, but I do find it interesting being that we’ve seen high emotions, time and time again in this sport, typically plague performances in one way or another. Whereas Covington – for all his shtick and circumstance – seems to handle himself professionally in the other facets of the fight game, proving to be a fight night performer for the most part.
In a close contest, that perceived edge is enough for me to take a shot on the underdog (even if I won’t be winning a popularity contest for this pick). I think that Usman will take it to Covington early by controlling the majority of grappling exchanges, but ultimately see the challenger using his scrambling ability on the mat – as well as leg kicks and left hands at distance – to squeak out a decision win down the stretch of a competitive fight.
Prediction: Covington by decision
