MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at a featured title fight for UFC 245.
UFC 245 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Amanda Nunes (18-4 MMA, 11-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 31 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: TKO win over Holly Holm (July 6, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight and featherweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Judo brown belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 3 submission win
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Underrated footwork
+ Improved jab
+ Dangerous right hand
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good hip awareness
+ Solid top game
Germaine de Randamie (9-3 MMA, 6-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 35 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 72.5″
- Last fight: TKO win over Aspen Ladd (Aug. 13, 2019)
- Camp: CSA Holland (The Netherlands)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC featherweight champion
+ 10x muay Thai world champion
^ 46-0 as a pro (with 30 KO’s)
+ 4 KO victories
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Excellent footwork
^ Seldom throws self out of position
+ Accurate left hook and right cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Solid kicking acumen
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Steers and strikes with knees
+ Shows signs of improved wrestling/grappling
^ Limited grappling sample size
Point of interest: Looming right hands
The third title fight billed for UFC 245 features a fun rematch for the bantamweight belt that will be contested between two ladies who carry heavy right hands.
Coined “the female Anderson Silva” early on in her MMA career, Germaine de Randamie came into the UFC as one of the most accoladed muay Thai fighters next to Valentina Shevchenko.
Like many high-level Thai strikers (both Dutch and Thai styles alike), de Randamie seldom throws herself out of position when stalking down her prey. Utilizing a solid jab to prod distance, the former featherweight champ puts together her punches nicely as she throws an accurate cross from her power side.
Intelligently reading her opposition’s exits and retreats, de Randamie will smartly corral opponents to her preferred range with devastating head kicks that she uses to punctuate her combinations when feeling in stride. And with her being used to fighters trying to invade her space (especially in MMA), de Randamie shows no issue in letting cross-hook counters fly in and out of the breaks.
Still, as good as de Randamie is, she has shown – both in MMA and muay Thai – that she is not beyond getting stung with power coming back at her.
Enter Amanda Nunes.
A fighter who came storming aggressively out of the gates, Nunes has had to refine her natural aptitude for combat. Training boxing since the age of 16, Nunes has rounded out her game with effective muay Thai since entering MMA.
Initially forcing her way into exchanges (and producing quick results in doing so), Nunes has slowly sharpened her skills, smartly adjusting her pressuring approach. Most notably, Nunes has improved her footwork, circling just outside of range as opposed to rushing right in.
Intelligently circling or taking the appropriate angles, the double champ has been able to improve her distance management, striking technique and shot selection, making the power coming off of her frame more potent in the process. This, coupled with Nunes’ upgraded jab and feints, could help her dissuade the offense that may be coming her way.
Nunes has also proven to use her jab much more efficiently to set up her crosses and hooks, as well as utilizing it as a check to either the head or body to help exit exchanges safely.
Even though Nunes has proven in recent years that she can conduct herself accordingly in the striking department for prolonged periods of time, I do wonder/worry if the sitting champion runs the risk of getting too comfortable playing de Randamie’s game should she not attempt to take things to the floor.
Next point of interest: Return of the mat?
Point of interest: Return of the mat?
Considering how their first fight went, one can’t help but wonder if Nunes will look to take this to the ground to exploit a grappling edge once again.
Nunes, who has a background in judo, also has improved her wrestling ability since working with American Top Team. Whether she is shooting in the open or going for takedowns from the clinch, Nunes will be a scoring threat any time these two tie up in close quarters.
However, unless Nunes elects a level-changing shot or kick-catch counter, then the Brazilian champion will likely have to enter the clinch with de Randamie – which is where things could get even more interesting considering the challenger’s muay Thai aptitude.
Instead of connecting her hands in a traditional Thai plum around the back of her opponent’s head, de Randamie will typically utilize a palm-to-palm grip variation off the over-under position, connecting her hands high around the back of her opposition’s head and neck. Not only does this allow de Randamie to steer her counterpart, but it also allows her to strike them with impunity with knees, something we saw on full display in her fight with Julie Kedzie.
That said, it’s still hard to ignore the lack of layers to de Randamie’s wrestling defense and fundamentals, which – to me – spells trouble anytime she ties up in the open or against the fence without showing immediate answers or urgency.
Should Nunes successfully get this fight grounded, then it’s hard not to see her getting to/having carte blanche from topside. The sitting champ has a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to go along with her brown belt in judo and has proven to be a nightmare whenever working from top position, showing both brutal ground striking and submission savvy.
Given that de Randamie hasn’t really faced or encountered in-fight grappling threats since she last met Nunes, it really is difficult to tell exactly how much technical rebuttal she will have if faced with similar grappling scenarios again.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be stacking their chips behind the double champ, listing Nunes -280 and de Randamie +240 as of this writing.
With Nunes cementing herself as the greatest female fighter of all time around this time last year, it’s hard to be surprised to her installed as such a high favorite for a fight she’s already won once before. Still, I can’t help but wonder if there’s more volatility to these odds than meets the eye.
Aside from the classic fighter trope (that even the greats are not immune to) of “not showing up,” I do believe that there are paths to victory for de Randamie. Though Nunes has shown a solid chin throughout her career (as most of her TKO losses came more from fatigue/a loss of focus), I could see de Randamie looking to use the latter to lull Nunes into her style of fight on the feet – quietly edging her out from a scoring perspective.
That said, counting on Nunes to slow down or lose focus has shown to be something that happens a lot less these days.
Sure, her fight with Shevchenko wasn’t exactly fought at the most torrid pace, and she may have been the one who was firmly in the driver’s seat for her five-round affair with Raquel Pennington, but Nunes has shown multiple improvements – like pacing, for example – since moving shop to American Top Team.
Couple that with her undeniable advantage on the floor, and it’s hard not to back the proven product who comes from a camp that is notorious for sending out well-prepared fighters and producing champions. The pick is Nunes to safely slow-play the first round, finding a way to repeat history in the second with a stoppage by way of strikes to a grounded opponent.
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