MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 243.
UFC 243 takes place Saturday (Sunday locally) at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, Australia. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Robert Whittaker (20-4 MMA, 11-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 28 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 73.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Yoel Romero (June 9, 2018)
- Camp: Gracie Jiu-jitsu Smeaton Grange (Australia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC middleweight champion
+ Hapkido and karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Australian National Wrestling Championships gold medal
+ 10 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and distance management
^ Quickly and deceptively blitzes
+ Accurate left hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Unique angles and off-beat attacks
^ Disrupts opponents’ rhythm
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Improved overall grappling
Israel Adesanya (17-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: Decision win over Kelvin Gastelum (April 13, 2019)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Interim UFC middleweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+ Active and attacking guard game
Point of interest: Open range
The main event in Melbourne features a fantastic middleweight title fight between two men who seek to control and close space with styles that stand alone from their contemporaries.
Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Robert Whittaker has developed into one of the most unique striking stylists at 185 pounds.
Using a combination of speed, accuracy and a fluid economy of movement, the Australian will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many karate-based strikers, Whittaker will feint or show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.
As we’ve seen in multiple fights, Whittaker often will assert himself through rear-legged front kicks that he uses to launch himself into variations of left hooks and shifting overhand shots. This variation of drop-stepping/shifting can be useful when trying to find creative ways to close distance on longer opponents who tend to fight from opposite stances (something Jorge Masvidal showed us in his own way when he fought Darren Till).
Whittaker also has no issue when it comes to sticking to his fundamentals, building offense through well-placed jabs that flow off of deceptive feints. That said, the sitting champion is not beyond being taxed for his sometimes low-handed approach, which could bode badly for him considering who is counterpart is.
Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Israel Adesanya took to martial arts at a young age and is no stranger to the big stage of competition.
A cunning martial artist, Adesanya earned his moniker with his creative striking flow that helped earn him titles in both the boxing and kickboxing arenas. Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to establish his reads and set up his shots accordingly. The interim champ keeps whipping right-hands ready at the rear, while offering pinpoint counter-crosses from his southpaw stance.
When feeling in stride, the 30-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether they’re powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood in the water, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.
From hand-traps that parlay into elbows, to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges that Whittaker will need to be aware of. But for as talented as Adesanya is, he, too, is not beyond being touched by fighters who know where and when to push.
Next point of interest: Potential wrestling warfare
Point of interest: Potential wrestling warfare
Although few deny the striking scenarios that are on the menu for this middleweight title fight, you can’t help but wonder if Whittaker will dust off the ground skills that seem to favor him on paper.
Whittaker’s coach recently compared his fighter to the great Georges St-Pierre, citing the quiet progression of his overall skills – particularly his wrestling. The 28-year-old champ quietly won a gold medal at the Australian National Wrestling Championships back in 2017, and took first at a Commonwealth Games qualifier later that year (though he was unable to follow through and represent Australia due to UFC contract obligations).
Said wrestling work, however, has shown up more and more in Whittaker’s career, albeit being primarily applied in a defensive manner considering his stylistic run of opponents. The 10-year pro is among the likes of Max Holloway when it comes to smartly disrupting grips to defend takedowns as a second layer of sorts (falling right behind his footwork, of course) and separating after.
Should Whittaker’s defensive capabilities portend his offensive wrestling abilities, then Adesanya may have to, once again, dig deep into his bag of somewhat recently-acquired skills.
Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown a surprising amount of clinch savvy in regards to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper headspace to keep strikes at the ready to deliver off of the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle the approaches of the sitting champ.
But as far as defending takedowns goes, I would argue that Adesanya has overperformed in that department, proving his critics wrong as of late. Dating back to his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of over and underhook leverage.
Since that time, Adesanya has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, smartly fighting grips and protecting his hips, typically while using the cage for assistance. Coupled with his natural base and balance, the seven-year pro seems to be harder and harder to control, demonstrating an active and attacking guard whenever he is taken down.
The potential problem, though, is that if Adesanya is taken down by Whittaker, he will likely experience savvier controls and higher consequences amid exchanges. Not only has Whittaker worked his wrestling in recent years, but the Australian has also earned himself a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black since we last saw him, and I suspect we’re dealing with an even sharper version of the Whittaker that we saw swarm Uriah Hall.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers initially opened the sitting champion as the betting favorite, but money has come in on the interim champ to put him slightly ahead in what is practically a pick’em fight.
Considering how hard of a time I had making a pick here, it kind of heartens me to see that the public and pros are also at odds (pardon the pun). Still, like I always say when having to begrudgingly pick against fighters I like, you can’t feel great about counting either of these two out – particularly Adesanya.
Adesanya is not just some flashy kickboxer who will end up a tourist in the annals of MMA, as I truly believe he is a special talent who is here to stay. That said, staying undefeated, much less keeping a hot streak going, is a very difficult thing to do in mixed martial arts. And though everyone has been harping on Whittaker’s layoff’s and perceived health hurdles, he may be in slightly better mental and physical form coming into this contest considering said time off (in comparison to Adesanya’s arduous schedule of five fights in one year, followed by a five-round round war just months later).
It’s been roughly six months since Adesanya’s epic battle with Kelvin Gastelum, which – according to his already impressive trend of fight-to-fight improvements – puts the interim champ on pace to perform with the possibility of many new toys at his disposal. But lest we forget, Whittaker is actually the younger party, who is technically only entering his prime now at the age of 28.
Obviously, it can be hard to feel confident making a prediction based on those intangibles alone, as I will be leaving plenty of room to be surprised on both sides. What I will be looking for, however, rests within the much more tangible realm of fighting stances.
More specifically, I will be watching to see when Whittaker elects to encroach upon Adesanya’s space. For instance, when Anderson Silva faced Adesanya, he would blitz Adesanya any time he switched to southpaw, finding his best moments in the match when doing so.
In looking closer, this was likely not a coincidence considering that Alex Pereira, a fighter who beat Adesanya twice in kickboxing, was in Silva’s corner for that fight. Pereira not only beat Adesanya twice but also knocked him out in their second meeting – when Adesanya was in a southpaw stance, no less. Furthermore, when going back to watch Adesanya’s most recent fight with Gastelum, I also found that the fighter facing the New Zealand native had his best successes blitzing any time Adesanya took a southpaw stance.
Now, before I get ahead of myself, let me just state that only the fighters themselves know if they have a “weak side,” but if Adesanya – who has spectacular offense and counters from southpaw – does not have an equal level of defense from that side, then he won’t be able to afford to sleep on the deceptive distance-closing abilities of Whittaker.
Adesanya will also need to be aware of Whittaker’s same-side high kicks that he disguises off punches – techniques that effectively found their home on Adesanya in matches with both Gastelum and Filip Verlinden (who beat him in kickboxing).
I’m not sure if Whittaker can get the smart and resourceful Adesanya out of there with these perceived openings, but I do think his more-varied offense may make the difference down the stretch (especially if he implements the offensive wrestling that many of us suspect him to). But if his “GSP” impression fails, then Whittaker could find himself stuck on the outside without a door to get back in.
The pick is a reluctant one, but I’ll side with Whittaker to find surprises on the feet or secure rounds on the floor en route to the scorecards of another memorable war.
