MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 242.
UFC 242 takes place Saturday at The Arena at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FX and UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Khabib Nurmagomedov (27-0 MMA, 11-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Submission win over Conor McGregor (Oct. 6, 2018)
- Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (San Jose, Calif.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC lightweight champion
+ 2x world sambo champion
+ 2x Russian combat sambo champion
+ M-1 Selection champion
+ 8 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved striking game
^ Deceptively heavy hands
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Superb underhook awareness
+ Diverse takedown acumen
^ Chains attempts seamlessly
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ 50 passes in 11 fights
+ Solid guard game/submissions
Dustin Poirier (25-5 MMA, 17-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Max Holloway (April 13, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Interim UFC lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Regional and amateur MMA titles
+ 12 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall boxing
^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
+ Accurate left cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Solid submissions and scrambling
Point of interest: Slinging heat
The main event in Abu Dhabi features a fun stylistic matchup that serves as a title unification fight for my favorite division.
Although current lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov typically concedes a striking advantage on paper, he continues to carry on undefeated, all while showing steady improvements along the way.
An aggressive combat sambo champion that stormed onto the UFC stage, Nurmagomedov – who was initially a wildman unafraid to throw himself out of position – now displays a much more competent game than before.
Incorporating a heavy dose of feints, the 30-year-old Dagestani draws out his opponents’ reactions so that he can create openings for his approach. From throwing shovel hooks to overhand rights, it is both Nurmagomedov’s confidence and commitment to his punches that make them so effective and potent.
In his battle with Edson Barboza, we saw Nurmagomedov tighten up his defenses, demonstrating a tighter shell and smoother flow than we’re accustomed to seeing. But in his fight with Al Iaquinta, Nurmagomedov played it much more fast and loose on the feet, keeping a lower guard and allowing for exchanges that were arguably unnecessary.
The current champ did show a solid jab and reaffirmed his unquestioned gameness in that fight, but exchanging for prolonged periods is not something that will behoove Nurmagomedov against the striking savvy of Dustin Poirier.
The 10-year pro from Louisiana also has shown to evolve from a once eager slugger to a more mature fighter who likes to dictate brawls rather than enter them. In fact, Poirier has made significant upgrades to his game since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Demonstrating an excellent awareness of distance and footwork, the slugging southpaw will shift his stance for setups (often doubling up on strikes from the same side) as he adjusts his angles accordingly with fight-ending shots in mind.
Utilizing this style of shifting to create attack opportunities, Poirier has shown to sit down more on his punches, giving three fighters their first stoppage losses since returning to 155 pounds. The 30-year-old also displays improvements to his prodding, pulling and returning – countering tactics that could serve him well considering the success that other southpaws have had in regards to poking holes in Nurmagomedov’s striking defense.
However, considering the close quarters that Nurmagomedov fights typically take place in, the most meaningful strikes (from both men) will likely be happening off of breaks and within small spaces.
Next point of interest: Close quarters combat
Point of interest: Close quarters combat
Given the stylistic crux of this encounter, it’s hard to imagine a fight in which Nurmagomedov doesn’t get his opposition to the floor.
Although speed and movement may be Poirier’s friends early, Nurmagomedov’s style of entry is a simple one that’s hard to deny.
Primarily predicating his offense off of the establishment of an underhook or the grasp of a lower extremity, Nurmagomedov is OK with failing on his first shot so that he can push his opposition toward the fence. And once he’s in close, it usually doesn’t take long for the lightweight champ to get what he wants.
Whether he is hitting trips and tosses from the bodylock or going through his single-leg repertoire of high-crotch lifts to crackdowns, the Dagestani can do it all.
His American counterpart appears to have an athletic and agile get-up game, but Nurmagomedov is a master when it comes to transitional grappling. He crushes his opponents’ spirits through unforgiving wrist-rides, looking to pick posts and collapse their base anytime they attempt to stand (all while making time to both squawk and strike at his caught prey, of course).
Nevertheless, I would still argue that Poirier possesses better defense than the statistics show.
Since working with American Top Team, Poirier has vastly improved his wrestling for MMA, utilizing a combination of upgraded fundamentals that help fuel both offensive and defensive intentions. In addition, the interim champ also keeps some slick front-choke threats in his back pocket that allow him to either create space and separations, or drop for submissions should he see fit.
That said, considering Eddie Alvarez was able to gain dominant positions (that spookily resemble what Poirier’s up against here) on the Louisianan in their second meeting, I doubt that Poirier will be too willing to give ground to Nurmagomedov. In fact, I see Poirier’s front-choke threats being one of his strong points in this matchup given the neighborhood Nurmagmedov has to travel through to get to his destination.
Poirier, who has a plethora of D’Arce chokes and guillotine setups, navigates comfortably and confidently from a front headlock grasp. This is something that Nurmagomedov will need to respect, especially in scenarios/scrambles that require the combat sambo champ to re-wrestle for position.
I, like many, give an overall grappling edge to Nurmagomedov, but Poirier is still a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who can make hay from many positions, especially when pouring on the punishment from topside. And though I may be one of the few who actually wouldn’t be too surprised to see Poirier end up on top at some point in this fight (even if it isn’t for long), he, too, will still need to respect his foe.
Poirier, although only submitted once as a pro (after getting hurt in a four-round war with Chan Sung Jung), has seemingly found himself in precarious submission catches throughout his career. In his defense, I believe that you can chalk this up to Poirier’s style of baiting submissions to gain ground, but playing that kind of game will be like playing with fire when it comes to Nurmagomedov.
While most casual viewers have only seen the lightweight champion working from topside, Nurmagomedov actually has an incredibly impressive game off of his back. Whether he’s using an overhook to set up a submission or sweep, the Dagestani fighter can create scrambles to positive positions in the blink of an eye.
The more pressing question for me, however, is not whose grappling will win out, but whose grappling ability will last longer in a five-round fight?
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are still riding high on the undefeated Dagestani, listing Nurmagmomedov -450 and Poirier +360 as of this writing.
Although the betting spread above isn’t exactly as wide as the reference I’m about to drop, this setting still smacks of a particular part of MMA history with which I am very familiar. This may only be the UFC’s third trip to Abu Dhabi, but many storylines in our sport shifted during the organization’s first trip back in April of 2010 – not the least of which included the trajectory of the lightweight division.
Another guy they used to call “the greatest lightweight of all time,” B.J. Penn, was set to defend his title against a workman-like, well-rounded fighter named Frankie Edgar.
Sound familiar?
Well, in case you’re not, Edgar ended up upsetting the then-reigning (and actual undisputed) lightweight champ, causing a ripple effect of rematches and revolving doors that have essentially filled the division’s history since. But historical woo-woo aside, there are real, tangible reasons why history could repeat itself here.
First off, let me just say that I believe Nurgamedov is undoubtedly the deserved favorite in this spot. Despite my official pick, I do have eyes that are (thankfully) functional enough for me to realize that this – like most of Nurmagomedov’s fights – could closely resemble the bear attack scene in “The Revenant” should the champ get Poirier to the ground early and often.
The problem with following that thought, however, draws me to a question that I left you with on the previous page: Who can keep up the fight (whether it be offensively or defensively) for longer?
Early on, one of Poirier’s more obvious problems – aside from defense – was his ability to manage his pace. But, again, after moving his camp down to South Florida, Poirier now sports some of the most battle-tested conditioning that’s available in recent MMA sample sizes.
Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov, despite displaying some of his best cardio in fights where he was setting takedown records, has shown that his wrestling output may, in fact, have some limits when facing higher-level competition in five-round affairs.
I believe it is Chael Sonnen who often references this, but many are of the belief that it is near-impossible for a human being to wrestle hard for 25 consecutive minutes. And when looking at one of the most effective wrestlers in our sport today (Nurmagomedov), I believe that there is some truth to that.
For example, I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that a battered Conor McGregor, Barboza and Iaquinta were all able to defend multiple takedowns come Round 3 of their fights with Nurmagomedov; nor was it an accident that Michael Johnson was able to successfully defend takedowns in Round 2 (before voluntarily dropping for a guillotine that helped lead to his demise, of course).
Although I’ve been saying that Tony Ferguson is Nurmagomedov’s on-paper kryptonite for years (as well as the man with the most claim to the lightweight crown), I suspect that Poirier can offer a similar set of problems given his pacing, striking, front-choke threats, and ability to fight out of bad spots.
I know I’m not winning a popularity contest with this prediction, but I think that Poirier – like Leonardo DiCaprio’s character in the movie referenced above – can get the last word on the big, bad bear should he survive the initial storm. The pick is Poirier by third-round TKO.
