MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 241.
UFC 241 takes place Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Anthony Pettis (22-8 MMA, 9-7 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72.5″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Stephen Thompson, (March 23, 2019)
- Camp: Roufusport (Milwaukee)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC and WEC lightweight champ
+ Tae kwon do black belt (third degree)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ Good footwork and feints
+ Improved boxing
^ Accurate counter-cross
+ Diverse kicking game
^ Dangerous body attacks
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Excellent submission grappler
Nate Diaz (19-11 MMA, 14-9 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Majority decision loss to Conor McGregor, (Aug. 20, 2016)
- Camp: Cesar Gracie Fight Team (Stockton, Calif.)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/boxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter 5” winner
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 5 KO victories
+ 12 submission victories
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume approach
+ Excellent boxing technique
^ Accurate jabs and crosses
+ Superb submission grappler
^ Solid transitions/comfortable in bad positions
+ Dangerous guard game
^ Excellent leg dexterity
+/- Physically durable/traditionally takes damage
+/- Coming off of a three-year layoff
Point of interest: Straight lines vs. low kicks
The co-main event in Southern California features a fun stylistic fight between two beloved fighters who always bring the proverbial party with them.
Fan favorite Nate Diaz has seemingly elevated himself to and from cult status in recent years despite his inactivity.
Now, returning to the octagon just three days short of three years, Diaz draws a familiar foe in Anthony Pettis. And with Pettis’ noted, kick-heavy attacks, Diaz’s ability to dictate distance and control the center striking lanes will be especially crucial in this stylistic affair.
Under the tutelage of Richard Perez (who is also the boxing coach of Nick Diaz), we have seen the younger Diaz brother become a talented boxer within the confines of MMA.
Firing jab-cross continuums with the snap of a coiled cobra, Diaz will off-set striking rhythms, disrupting a fighter’s timing and subsequent approach. Coupled with unabashed physical taunts and mental warfare, Stockton’s own can sneakily steal the steering wheel from even the most skilled drivers in a three-round affair.
That said, the “Diaz style” is not without its pitfalls – particularly defensively.
From leaning low on his strike retractions to the bladed nature of his boxing-centric stance, Diaz has traditionally struggled against competent kickers throughout his career. Should Diaz not show signs of shoring up those holes early, then it could be a long night for the returning 34-year-old when you consider who will be standing across from him on Saturday.
Initially coming from a taekwondo base, Pettis has been able to bring a spectacular array of kicking techniques into the cage. Balancing out his traditional stylings under the tutelage of Duke Roufus, Pettis has rounded out his attacks with punches and feints to help set up his fight-ending kicks.
As flashy as some of the kicks on his highlight reel may be, Pettis’ body kick seems to be his bread and butter, unloading them from either stance with authority. Considering the tall stature of his opponent, I would not be surprised to see Pettis unleash a healthy amount of middle kicks – but ultimately suspect we’ll see low kicks take center stage for this matchup.
Whether he’s facing Tony Ferguson or Stephen Thompson, Pettis is not shy about abusing long-limbed opposition with whatever looks they give him, as I suspect he’ll try and replicate the success that other fighter’s had against Diaz in this department. The former lightweight champion also has an underrated counter cross that Diaz will need to respect, especially with how Pettis has shown to launch them from either drop-steps or superman positions as of late.
Regardless of who you think will win out the striking stanzas, low kicks versus straight lines will be the crucial crossroads between these two on paper.
Next point of interest: Submission wars
Point of interest: Submission wars
Considering the potential chaos of striking scenarios, I would not be surprised to see a submission war spark off on the floor from the subsequent madness that takes place on the feet.
Though both men are phenoms on the mat, neither are necessarily known for taking the fight there. However, for my money, I suspect that Pettis is the much more likely man to break that trend.
Working with the likes of Ben Askren and Izzy Martinez for many years, Pettis has shown wrestling improvements in moments throughout his career. The former champ can competently hit level-changing shots when he needs to, as well as execute crafty takedowns from the clinch.
That said, Diaz is not exactly a slouch when forced to wrestle in close quarters.
Although traditional wrestling shots are all but devoid in Diaz’s game, he does have some craftiness inside the clinch that could see the light of day. Emphasizing more on overhooks than underhooks, Diaz will use this tie-up to either set up his patent Uchi Mata hip toss or open up opportunities for sneaky trips and guard pulls.
Deadly and proficient in transition, Diaz only needs but a moment to shift the fight’s momentum from the front-headlock position, whether he’s looking for a choke or opting to drop back and hit some type of sweep/reversal. And if the Cesar Gracie black belt does end up on his back, his leg dexterity offers him plenty of options from guard attacks to leg locks that allow for scrambles.
Nevertheless, no matter how good Diaz’s jiu-jitsu may be, he cannot afford to sleep on the submission skills of Pettis.
Though Pettis has only recently received his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, the 32-year-old has been operating at that level for quite some time. Whether he is setting guillotine traps in a scramble or reminding you that the guard still works in MMA, Pettis has been able to consistently catch some of the most skilled grapplers at the highest level.
Though I have a hard time seeing either man submitted soberly, I would not be entirely shocked to see this fight end by submission should the temperature climb high enough.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former lightweight champ, listing Pettis -130 and Diaz +110 as of this writing.
I’m a longtime fan of Diaz, but one could argue that this line could be a little wider in Pettis’ favor, as I suspect popularity will be playing a role with the betting lines this weekend. After all, Diaz – for as much as a fan favorite as he is – has only been favored to win (using closing lines) two of his past 12 fights.
More importantly, I also see this being a hard row to hoe for Stockton’s finest from a stylistic standpoint, especially coming off of a three-year layoff. Both Diaz’s striking stance and almost laissez-faire attitude toward kick defense has cost him with competent kickers before, which makes it difficult for me to side with him here.
Now, don’t get me wrong: Diaz does have tangible pathways to win this fight.
Pettis is not beyond being pressured by long-limbed fighters with high-volume approaches who have made him pay for playing along the outskirts of the cage. But those fighters (Tony Ferguson and Max Holloway) also happen to be the best builders in the sport right now, using a much wider range of weapons and footwork than Diaz has typically shown.
Diaz, by his own admission, also tends to start slow since he requires getting his opposition’s timing before he can establish his own rhythm. Whereas Pettis (especially as of late) is far from a slow starter.
Diaz has been able to overcome similar stylistic hurdles before, beating the likes of Michael Johnson and Donald Cerrone. However, even in defeat, both those fighters were still able to land just about every kick they threw, as it was ultimately the mental game of Diaz that threw them off their games. So, for me, that’ll likely be the same test that Pettis will have to pass on Saturday.
Pettis seems to finally be back in a good professional and mental space in his career, re-strengthening his bond with longtime coach Roufus (who has made a point to incorporate the mental warfare Diaz will bring into this training camp). Again, I’m a huge Diaz fan who wouldn’t mind being wrong here, but the pick is Pettis to put his own spin on Josh Thomson’s performance, putting away Diaz in the second round.
