MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 240.
UFC 240 takes place Saturday at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Max Holloway (20-4 MMA, 16-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 27 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Dustin Poirier (April 13, 2019)
- Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Attacks off angles/manages distance well
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Strikes well off the break
+ Deceptive counter grappling/wrestling
^ 83 percent takedown defense rate
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition
Frankie Edgar (23-6-1 MMA, 17-6-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 37 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Decision win over Cub Swanson (April 21, 2018)
- Camp: Nick Catone MMA (New Jersey)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ 4x NCAA Division I All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 4 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Enters and exits off angles
+ Superb timing and transitions
+ Effective chain wrestling
+ Excellent grappling ability
^ Positionally aware/scrambles well
+ Active ground striker
Point of interest: Deconstructing the builder
The main event in Edmonton features an anticipated featherweight title fight that tasks an age-old hero to dethrone yet another sitting Hawaiian champion whose reign seems strong.
MMA’s equivalent to “The Little Engine That Could,” Frankie Edgar has made a career in overcoming adversity through a unique combination of well-versed skill and ironclad will.
Consistently circling outside of range and encouraging his opponents to follow, the 14-year pro will work his way in behind a plethora of punches once finding an angle of approach to his liking.
Typically exiting exchanges at different angles than which he came, Edgar hedges his bets defensively through his level-changing sensibilities, something that helps open up both his combination and takedown attacks.
Implementing this arsenal of constant volume, variety, and angles, Edgar often breaks down his opposition the longer a fight goes on.
However, due to the nature of Edgar’s in-and-out approach, he is not beyond being taxed on the way in (something we were all reminded of in his last loss to Brian Ortega). When you consider the countering and overall striking ability of the opponent at hand, fans of Edgar may find themselves holding their breath during some of the exchanges on the feet.
Enter the champion.
Displaying solid striking and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Holloway, who was already improving from fight-to-fight, turned his biggest corner after his 2015 encounter with Cub Swanson.
Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from the Hawaiian, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the current featherweight king makes for a hard read on the feet.
When feeling in stride, the 27-year-old looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a fight in many different directions.
That all said, it is the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable.
Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway will not only build in his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game. For example, against Ricardo Lamas, Holloway ate a healthy dose of leg kicks throughout their battle. However, in looking closer at the exchanges, you will see Holloway steadily get a read on the attacks – evading, checking and countering the kicks by the end of the contest.
Still, offensive volume – no matter how clever – comes with a price. So, with that in mind, I will be curious to see how Edgar and company go about trying to deconstruct the champion’s building ways.
Next point of interest: The final featherweight test?
Point of interest: The final featherweight test?
Though Holloway practically ran the gauntlet on his way up the featherweight ranks, some still wonder just how good his counter grappling has gotten, being that wrestle-heavy fighters have been few and far between. And given Edgar’s on-paper edge within the grappling department, many will be curious to see if the former lightweight champ can return to his mauling ways on the mat in this particular matchup.
Sure, Holloway’s fleet-of-foot movement makes him difficult to pin down inside of an octagon, but he is still not beyond being timed or taken down with the proper choices in play. With that in mind, I would not be surprised to see Edgar try and test these waters early and often.
Owner of one of the best transition games in the sport’s short history, few can change gears with the consistency Edgar applies, going from combination punching to knee-tap takedowns at the drop of a dime. The New Jersey native can also catch kicks and change levels for a double like second nature – things that will likely keep Holloway honest in regards to his positions.
Thankfully for Holloway, he already seems to have built-in defensive mechanisms that aren’t often noticed by the naked eye.
The Hawaiian’s superb striking may hallmark a large part of his brand, but Holloway has quietly made consistent improvements to his counter grappling (only being taken down four times in the past five years). Even when having his takedown defense tested by NCAA All-American wrestler Ricardo Lamas, Holloway successfully thwarted his offensive shots, smoothly re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own.
Not only does Holloway display the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the breaks, something that could be worth watching for in this fight.
More importantly, whether Holloway is conducting himself from the clinch or inside the chaos of transition, he has always prioritized protecting his neck and head by either maintaining an upright posture in close or keeping his hands in the proper neighborhood to defend grasps. This note, in particular, is useful when considering his current counterpart’s acumen from the front headlock position.
Whether Edgar’s re-wrestling to dump his opponent or leveraging a leg to secure spots, New Jersey’s favorite son is a notable menace when scrambling in small spaces. A superb positional player, Edgar also has an awareness level to submissions that allows him to act as a honey badger inside of world-class opposition’s guards.
Keeping his hands, hips, and head in all the right places, the former lightweight champ can unleash offense with impunity, whether it be punches or can opener-assisted elbows. If Edgar is grappling soberly (as in not rocked from a prior exchange), then Holloway will likely have his work cut out for him.
That said, Edgar will need to respect Holloway’s guillotine choke by protecting his neck at all times. From his title fights with Benson Henderson to his featherweight affair with Charles Oliveira, Edgar has had his head caught in some precarious positions – something he can’t afford here.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
The oddsmakers and public are putting their money behind the sitting champ, listing Holloway -400 and Edgar +325 as of this writing.
Although I absolutely agree with who’s the favorite, this line could be a little bit tighter for my money. Still, I suspect it will come down to earth the closer we get to fight time.
Edgar has made a career by defying the odds, becoming one of the most consistent fighters to show up on the night. If the former lightweight champ can find success early with right hands over the top and takedowns underneath, then we may be in store for a scenario where Holloway is forced to work out of a hole in the early rounds.
However, even if Edgar is successful in getting Holloway down, his urgency and technique selection vastly differ from the fighters Edgar was able to maul in recent history. Couple that with the fact that Edgar has seemingly struggled against fighters who can counter or attack with shots down the center, and I suspect we see a tough stylistic matchup unfold on Saturday night.
If Edgar can score the upset here, then it will be hard not to be happy for the fighter who would hypothetically own the longest stint between UFC championships (seven years). That said, the pick is Holloway to get back on track with another classic, building performance that sees him pull away in the later rounds.
Prediction: Holloway by decision
For more on UFC 240, check out the UFC schedule.
