Editor’s note: This story originally published on July 2.
MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 239.
UFC 239 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Jon Jones (24-1 MMA, 18-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 84″
- Last fight: Decision win over Anthony Smith(March 2, 2019)
- Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC light-heavyweight champion
+ JUCO national wrestling title
+ 10 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Athletic and agile
+ Creative and dynamic striker
^ Preternatural instincts and improv
+ Effectively dictates range
^ Teep kicks, oblique kicks, hand posts
+ Deceptively effective inside clinch
^ Superb hand-fighting /grip disruption
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
+ Always looks to secure rounds
^ Consistently comes on late
Thiago Santos (21-6 MMA, 13-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: TKO win over Jan Blachowicz(Feb. 25, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Muay Thai titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Capoeira green rope
+ 14 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and movement
^ Will switch stances
+ Fast hand speed
^ Dangerous hooks and uppercuts
+ Devastating kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved overall grappling
^ Wrestling, transitions, fundamentals
Point of interest: The cannon and the king
The main event for UFC 239 features a light heavyweight title fight that has fireworks written all over it.
Thiago Santos, who has been on a whirlwind tour of violence, will make his ninth official appearance on the UFC stage in just over the past two years.
A dynamic striker by nature, Santos can hit as heavy as the hammer tattooed on his chest suggests. With a background in capoeira, the Brazilian’s base shines through in his athletic movement. Almost shuffling laterally at times, Santos can smoothly switch his stances, fighting equally effective from either side.
Traditionally favoring his patented left Thai kick from the southpaw stance, Santos will also indiscriminately spin or attack legs with vigor in an effort to mix things up.
However, since moving up to 205 pounds, Santos has been more prone to squeezing the trigger more frequently – unloading offense as if an excited eight-year-old is spamming commands behind a video game controller. But in his last outing against Jan Blachowicz, Santos showed the maturity to stay patient in the early frames and the ability to hit devastating counters from southpaw in the third.
All in all, the Brazilian contender has come a long way from his criticisms of perhaps being a “glass cannon,” but I’m not sure which approach he will ultimately choose when trying to line up his shot at the king.
Enter Jon Jones.
Though blessed with some solid athletic genetics, it is Jones’ almost-unflinching computing of striking exchanges that has always kept him well ahead of his contemporaries, particularly in recent years.
Seldom will you see the champion throw the same sequence of strikes within the same minute or even round – unless, that is, he is trying to set opposition up or walk them into something. And being one of the most tride and true stance switchers in MMA, Jones can exercise a plethora of options available to him to help further these agendas.
Whether he is hiding behind hand-posts or disrupting his opponent’s approach with oblique kicks and other leg assaults, Jones is clearly not shy when it comes to utilizing his length. Still, I would also argue that Jones has proven that he is not reliant on it either.
Not only does Jones have the aforementioned-abilities to navigate exchanges, but he has also seemingly made leaps in his boxing ability, helping shore up a range that most of his opponents risk life and limb to maintain. Even against the breakneck pressure that Daniel Cormier brought to their second meeting, Jones was able to pivot or shift his way into counter punches like never before in his career.
That said, Jones has also experienced his hardest shots when shifting or working within this range, which is what will make these stanzas the most exciting between him and Santos on paper.
Next point of interest: Deep waters
Point of interest: Deep waters
Given the chaos that will likely take place in striking stanzas, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this party hit the floor.
Santos, whose on-paper holes used to reside on the mat, has shown that his cross-training at American Top Team has not been in vain. Occasionally shooting for a takedown of his own, Santos shows the ability to transition both defensively and offensively in a much more confident way since suffering his last submission loss to Eric Spicely. And once the Brazilian banger can achieve a superior position, his ground striking is nothing short of unforgiving.
Nevertheless, if Santos means to get himself into any advantageous grappling positions in this fight, he will first have to get past the monster that is Jones’ clinch game.
Even against Cormier, a world-class wrestler and all-time MMA clinch artist in his own right, Jones was able to shut down his offense in close by utilizing creative wrist controls to disrupt the former light heavyweight champion’s game and open up his own.
Using his long frame to multitask inside the clinch, Jones can implement wrenching over-hooks (a la the ones that famously injured Glover Teixeira’s shoulder), all while using his free hand to either strike or help secure wrist-feeds to his over-hooking hand. This intricate tie-up also allows Jones the leverage to come over the top with elbows regardless of whether or not he is still holding onto wrists.
For those who have not wrestled or grappled in some form, wrist control is the unsung gatekeeper of advancing position, as a solid hand-fighter can befuddle even the best of grapplers. With that in mind, I will be curious to see if Santos either looks to avoid this area of the fight or, instead, tries to capitalize where others haven’t been able to.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are unsurprisingly stacking their chips on the current champ, listing Jones -600 and Santos +450 as of this writing.
Aside from offering you lazy analysis like the proverbial “puncher’s chance,” I will say – though admittedly without the most confidence – that there are paths for Santos to win this fight. Santos showed the ability to hit awkward but devastating counters in his last bout and, of course, carries a kicking ability that could replicate some of the early success (in regards to shots landed) that Anthony Smith found in his fight with Jones.
The problem, however, is that both Smith and Santos seem to be lacking a key factor that has arguably proved to be useful against the champion — and that’s the ability to consistently pressure and counter off of kicks.
In both victory and defeat, it’s not been uncommon to see Jones gingerly walk off the field of battle, as his kick-heavy approach to dissuade pressure seems to perhaps come at a cost to his frame. And when fighters like Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson (or even Lyoto Machida back at UFC 140) have aggressively countered off of Jones’ kicking inclinations, they were able to find some of the best successes we’ve seen scored on the champion to date.
Should Santos stay composed and show the technical acumen to successfully draw Jones into a kicking contest, then we could see the challenger open up some surprising opportunities through either attritive kicks or unexpected explosions. But against a fighter who I feel is but a clinch away from changing the dynamic of this fight, I find it hard to back Santos in this spot.
The challenger may be a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in his own right, but Santos has yet to show me anything to think he can hold a candle to the positional understanding of Jones and the relentless entanglements he applies.
Whether it be in the clinch or on the floor, Jones is akin to one of those pictures of a giant squid consuming a ship – simultaneously denying his opposition space while taking them into deeper and deeper of waters. And that’s what I see happening here. The pick is Jones to methodically figure out and shut down Santos in the first round, finishing things off on the floor shortly after.
Prediction: Jones inside the distance
For more on UFC 239, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
