Editor’s note: This story originally published on July 3.
MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 239.
UFC 239 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Amanda Nunes (17-4 MMA, 10-1 UFC)
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 31 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 70″
Last fight: KO win over Cris Cyborg (Dec. 29, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight and featherweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Judo brown belt
+ 12 KO victories
+ 3 submission win
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Underrated footwork
+ Improved jab
+ Dangerous right hand
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good hip awareness
+ Solid top game
+/- 2-1 against UFC southpaws
Holly Holm (12-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 37 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: Decision win over Megan Anderson (June 9, 2018)
- Camp: JacksonWink MMA (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC women’s bantamweight champion
+ Pro-boxing experience (33-2-3 record)
+ Multiple boxing and kickboxing accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 5 second-round finishes
+ Disciplined footwork and movement
^ Excellent distance management
+ Active and accurate cross
^ Coming forward or off of the counter
+ Diverse kicking arsenal
^ Sidekicks, oblique kicks, etc.
+ Deceptively strong inside the clinch
^ Works well off of over and underhooks
+ Consistent round-winning sensibilities
– Shown past struggles off of back
Point of interest: A battle for counters
The co-main event for UFC 239 features a bantamweight title fight that could come down to who can more successfully counter.
More of a stick-and-move stylist, Holly Holm demonstrates excellent footwork and distance management, traditionally playing just outside of range. Utilizing lateral movement until finding an opening to her liking, Holm will engage in strafing runs, throwing a variety of pre-programmed combinations like a finely tuned machine.
A consistency of patterns that she carried over from boxing, Holm will usually circle to her left to reset, and move to her right when attempting to achieve attack angles and counters, something that could serve her well on paper. That said, Holm may be facing her most dangerous punching threat to date – one who quietly carries counters of her own.
A fighter who came storming aggressively out of the gates, Amanda Nunes has had to refine her natural aptitude for combat. Training boxing since the age of 16, Nunes has rounded out her game with effective muay Thai since entering MMA.
Initially forcing her way into exchanges (and producing quick results in doing so), Nunes has slowly sharpened her skills, smartly adjusting her pressuring approach. Most notably, Nunes has improved her footwork, circling just outside of range as opposed to rushing right in.
Intelligently circling or taking the appropriate angles, the champion’s shot selection and accuracy also have improved, making the power coming off of her frame more potent in the process. This, coupled with Nunes’ upgraded jab and feints, could help the bantamweight champ dissuade the striking patterns that may be coming her way.
Nunes has proven to use her jab much more efficiently to set up her crosses and hooks, as well as utilizing it as a check to either the head or body to help exit exchanges safely. That said, Nunes will still need to mind her level-changing movements giving the proven kicking threat that will be standing across from her Saturday night.
Next point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering that the champ should have a clear on-paper edge in this department, I will be curious to see if any grappling comes to fruition in this fight.
Nunes, who has a background in judo, also has improved her wrestling ability since working with American Top Team. Whether she is shooting in the open or going for takedowns from the clinch, Nunes will be a scoring threat that Holm will need to respect.
That said, Holm is not exactly opposed to exercising her point-scoring sensibilities within grappling space either.
Deceptively strong in the clinch, Holm works well off overhooks and underhooks, framing with her forearms as she looks to break away (something that proved effective against the noted judoka in Rousey).
Against Cris Cyborg, Holm showed that she has more than just defensive framing and underhook awareness, engaging and controlling clinches on her terms throughout the contest. And in her last fight with Megan Anderson, Holm was able to demonstrate her long-developing takedown game, scoring and passing through positions from topside.
Still, unless she finds a way to exhaust Nunes first, I have a hard time seeing Holm outgrapple Nunes in the clinch or on the floor.
The champ has a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to go along with her brown belt in judo and has proven to be a nightmare whenever working from top position. But if Holm can wear out or frustrate Nunes via similar tactics to what we saw in her battle with Cyborg, then perhaps the challenger can make things interesting down the stretch.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
From a stylistic standpoint, I’d say that the betting line above is just about right. Nunes’ physicality and skills make her the deserved favorite, but she’ll still need to stay focused for up to 25 minutes, respecting Holm every inch of the way.
Noted upsets and striking highlights aside, Holm is a well-trained fighter who comes from a crafty camp that has instilled her with round-winning sensibilities. Should she find a way to put out volume while avoiding the big counters early, then I believe she can make things deceptively competitive the later this fight goes.
That said, counting on Nunes to slow down has shown to be something that happens a lot less these days.
Sure, her fight with Shevchenko wasn’t exactly fought at the most torrid pace, and she may have been the one who was firmly in the driver’s seat for her five-round affair with Raquel Pennington, but Nunes has shown multiple improvements – like pacing, for example – since moving shop to American Top Team. And with her boxing arguably being chief amongst those upgrades, I can’t help but seeing this fight going similarly to Holm’s title bout with Germaine De Randamie.
Counter right-hands, from both stances, have proven to be Holm’s kryptonite in both boxing and MMA. Furthermore, Holm’s patterns seem to be – especially at this point of her career – very deeply rooted, so I’m not sure she will fare well against the pressure-cooking style of counters that Nunes brings to the table. For that reason, along with the looming threat of a ground fight, I can’t help but see the champ break down the challenger by the third round with a patient array of right hands.
Prediction: Nunes inside the distance
For more on UFC 239, check out the Schedule section of the site.
