MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at a featured fight on the main card for UFC 238.
UFC 238 takes place Saturday at United Center in Chicago. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
Tony Ferguson (24-3 MMA, 13-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: TKO win Anthony Pettis (Oct. 6, 2018)
- Camp: 10th Planet Jiu-jitsu (California)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ *Former interim UFC lightweight champion
+ 2x All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 12 KO wins
+ 8 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
^ Well conditioned/consistent stalker
+ Dynamic striking assault
^ Shifts stance and variates timing
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Superb hip, grip and lever awareness
+ Excellent from front-headlock
^ Chokes, transitions, back-takes
+ Active and attacking guard
Donald Cerrone (36-11 MMA, 23-8 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 36 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 73″
- Last fight: Decision win over Al Iaquinta(May 4, 2019)
- Camp: BMF Ranch (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management:Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple muay Thai titles
^ 28-0 as a pro kickboxer
+ 10 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Intelligent strike setups
^ Feints, reads, reacts
+ Devastating head kicks
+ Accurate and intercepting knees
+ Hard leg kicks
^ Most landed in UFC history
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Active and attacking guard
Point of interest: Dictating pace and space
The fight that I (and many) are looking forward to most at UFC 238 features a pairing of lightweights who like to dictate the pace and space of a contest.
Walking a fine line between forward-mover and voracious marauder, Tony Ferguson can seldom be found taking a back step in his fights.
Whether he is feinting or throwing, Ferguson – for the most part – is consistently putting pressure on his opponents, looking to either slice-and-dice his way inside or half-step his way into kill shots off of his accurate jab. However, it is in these instances of shifting attacks and advancements where Ferguson is most hittable/susceptible to being countered.
Against a fighter like Donald Cerrone, the former interim champ could get more than he bargains for in that regard.
A pronounced muay Thai striker who loves to play in space, Cerrone embraces his kickboxing base, using leg kicks and teeps from a distance. Mixing in his punches appropriately to both the head and body, Cerrone will draw out his opponent’s defenses to set up the fight-ending head kicks that comprise his highlight reel.
In recent years, the 13-year pro has proven to provide much more than kicks and knees standing, showing strides in his ability to connect punches inside the pocket or in combination.
Since working with Brandon Gibson, the more recent iterations of Cerrone have him moving his head and torso offline and at angles, unloading his punches with different mechanics than before. Often punching his way out of exchanges with his left hook, Cerrone will feed his newfound flow into his patented head kicks, displaying an arsenal that’s much more symbiotic than before.
Nevertheless, no matter how promising the prospects are of a Cerrone finish, Ferguson has shown an uncanny ability to absorb punishment and haunt his opposition, living up to his moniker of “El Cucuy.” And though rolling with oncoming offense to return fire can be a risky proposition in MMA, it is one that Ferguson – for now – gets positive returns on due to his persistence to stay poised and play the long game.
Next point of interest: Submission wars
Point of interest: Submission wars
With a seemingly imminent firefight on the feet, I suspect these two will offer us a similar level of excitement on the mat, exchanging submissions almost as frequently as strikes.
Cerrone, who usually mixes in his well-timed takedowns smartly from the start, will typically go to them to deter oncoming pressure or in a seed-planting fashion to get into his opponent’s head early. And should the 36-year-old successfully ground his opposition here, then Ferguson will have to be on his best behavior.
Cerrone is a solid guard passer who parlays his pathways into quick back-takes whenever they become available. And if he misses in transition, Cerrone is consistent with catching opponents with offense as they try to make it back to their feet.
Nevertheless, the fan favorite will have a willing and competent dance partner across from him on Saturday night – one who possesses the tools and traps to make opponents pay for offensive grappling.
Whether fighters are shooting in for a double-leg or changing their levels inside of clinch space, their heads will inherently have to travel through a neighborhood Ferguson refers to as “snap-down city.”
With a “snap-down” being a wrestling term that refers to the pulling down of an opponent’s head to break their posture, Ferguson has seemingly made his money from this position, using it to transition to back-takes and front chokes alike. Demonstrating the ability to chain from position-to-position (regardless of whether or not he is using traditional or unorthodox entries), Ferguson appears to have answers from multiple spots on the mat, even when hurt and under fire.
From his back, the former interim champ does well at staying active and attacking from a high guard. And though retaining or fighting from guard seems to be a fleeting trend in MMA, Ferguson demonstrated how effective his stylings of strikes and submissions can be against Kevin Lee, who is arguably one of the best top players at 155 pounds.
Nevertheless, Ferguson could still find himself in the proverbial frying pan should he get too comfortable in transit or otherwise against a savvy grappler like Cerrone.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to slightly be siding with the former champ, listing Ferguson -135 and Cerrone +115 as of this writing.
Given the insane skills and deserved-love that both fighters possess, I can’t be mad at the betting line above seemingly getting tighter by the day. As for myself, I had a somewhat surprisingly difficult time picking this one. Despite having nothing but love and appreciation for a fighter like Cerrone, I (for whatever reason) seem to pick against him more than I side with him – which, in turn, makes me want to over-correct my steering wheel here and support this impressive run that he seems to be on.
But then there’s Ferguson.
A guy who I’ve been a big vocal supporter of in the MMA media space, Ferguson, in my mind, has one of the strongest claims to the lightweight throne. Ferguson was the first to win the vacant title and never lost it, ultimately putting together one of the most impressive winning streaks (active or not) in any division – and that includes the current lightweight kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Nevertheless, MMA is seemingly a sport that cares not of ‘what’s deserved’ nor does it cater to anyone’s storylines. And when you have a high-risk fighter like Ferguson, then I guess you could say that seeing his story crushed by him slipping into a head kick on Saturday night wouldn’t necessarily surprise me. Coupled with the fact that Ferguson is making a short-notice appearance (something Cerrone is used to) following a slew of personal issues, I wouldn’t blame anyone for being hesitant in backing him here.
Still, I ultimately give Ferguson more leeway than almost any fighter on the roster due to the archetype he embodies. Not only does Ferguson seem to have an unshakeable confidence to push forward, but he also has a style that I like to refer to as “presenting.”
Similar to the process of a good magician, the true magic happens when you can successfully stage an environment for your trick to work. This principle also exists in the poker arena, as a poker tournament can often be won by the better presenter – not necessarily the better poker player.
So basically, whether Ferguson is presenting a false target or setting a high pace, he is ultimately fighting with a bigger purpose in mind. For that reason, I’ll pick Ferguson to survive some serious scares en route to striking and slicing his way to a late, second-round submission win.
Prediction: Ferguson inside the distance
For more on UFC 238, visit the UFC Rumors section of the site.
