MMA Junkie Radio co-host Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today we look at the main event for UFC 238.
UFC 238 takes place Saturday at United Center in Chicago. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
Henry Cejudo (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 64″
- Last fight: TKO win over T.J. Dillashaw (Jan 19, 2019)
- Camp: Fight Ready MMA (Arizona)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ Olympic wrestling gold medalist (U.S.)
+ Bronze Gloves boxing champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ 5 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Solid footwork
+ Improved overall striking
^ Coming forward or off of the counter
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid grips/hand-fighting
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ 88 percent takedown defense rate
Marlon Moraes (22-5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Submission win over Raphael Assuncao(Feb. 2, 2019)
- Camp: Ricardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu (New Jersey)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple muay Thai accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent feints and footwork
^ Pivots, lateral movement, distancing
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off of the counter
+ Dynamic and dangerous kicker
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid scrambling and submissions
Point of interest: Crush or counter?
The main event for UFC 238 features a bantamweight title fight between two men who can both crush and counter their foes in different ways.
A fleet of foot striker, Marlon Moraes does well at staying light yet loaded on his feet, which in turn (coupled with his blinding speed) allows him to open up on opponents coming forward or moving backward. Doing a better job of balancing out his punch-to-kick ratio under the care of Mark Henry, Moraes will now accompany a healthy amount of feints to his already fantastic footwork, often finishing his variating punch-offense with ferociously placed kicks.
Though the 31-year-old Brazilian is not beyond being countered while throwing his patented weapons, he maintains impeccable balance when attacking (even while throwing kicks) that allows him to seldom be caught out of position. Still, given the different phases of threats we’ve seen his current counterpart offer, I will be curious to see how kick-heavy Moraes opts to be in the early going.
An Olympic gold medalist wrestler with some boxing experience, Henry Cejudo initially came onto the scene implementing somewhat of a stick-and-move curriculum. Seldom throwing himself out of position, Cejudo packs cross-hook combinations that are often punctuated with hard kicks to the body.
Back when Cejudo fought Joseph Benavidez, the former freestyle wrestler displayed an upgraded muay Thai arsenal from his time spent at CSA in Northern California. And in his fight with Wilson Reis in 2017, Cejudo took things to yet another level, coming out in a sharp karate stance that he picked up while working down in Brazil with the Pitbull brothers (Bellator’s Patricio and Patricky).
Showing off an improved sense of range, Cejudo appears more capable of timing and countering his opponents precisely with palpable speed and power, something that will serve him well on paper against Moraes.
Whether it be fighters from early on in his career like Josh Hill or his UFC debut against Raphael Assuncao, we have seen Moraes have some issues with counter strikers before. Even in his battle with John Dodson (another split-decision on the scorecards), Moraes had some trouble finding his groove consistently.
Although pressure may be at the heart of Cejudo’s game, the current flyweight champ has shown an ability to counter with conviction – which makes me wonder what kind of approach he and his team have in store for Saturday night.
Next point of interest: Grappling expenditures
Point of interest: Grappling expenditures
With striking possibilities palpable on the feet, I would not be surprised to see this fight head to the floor – especially if Cejudo has a say on the matter.
From a grappling perspective, Cejudo has traditionally done well at stifling his opponents in the clinch with fundamental hand-fighting and controls. And when he’s able to establish any combination of over or underhooks, the 32-year-old is quick to use those opportunities to hit inside trips or other forms of takedowns that chain off the motion he creates.
That said, Cejudo does seem somewhat reliant on chaining his way toward the clinch to get his takedowns, an approach that could be troublesome on paper against an athletic and agile mover who’s hard to pin down.
Oddly enough, Moraes has not had a lot of opponents push a grappling-heavy agenda in recent years. Nevertheless, the Brazilian still shows an underrated wrestling game that has only improved since moving shop to the United States.
Initially following his childhood friend Edson Barboza to train with Henry and company in New Jersey, Moraes appears even more comfortable when having to scramble – an aspect of the game that probably gets stronger after training with fighters like Frankie Edgar. Moraes also has fast feet and hips, which come in handy for shutting down many of the shot attempts thrown his way.
When Moraes is taken down, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is quick to threaten with a submission – typically heel hooks – which, in turn, often allows him to scramble and get back to his feet. And with the recent reminder of his killer guillotine choke (in which he used to exact revenge over fellow black belt Assuncao), I will be curious to see how, and how often, Cejudo attempts takedowns in this fight.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the bigger man on paper, listing Moraes -120 and Cejudo +100 as of this writing.
At first, I wasn’t sure if the gen pop would give Cejudo the respect he deserves. However, judging by the betting line above, I believe they are (as they should).
Regardless of what your opinion is on the outcome of his last two fights, it’s hard to argue that Cejudo hasn’t proven that he’s a world-class fighter who has stopping power. Moraes, similar to one Eddie Alvarez, is not beyond being caught early in his contests, which will make Cejudo a subtly dangerous threat in the early going. And if the former Olympian decides to dust off his wrestling prowess, then we could see him begin to bank rounds with control, a la his second fight with Demetrious Johnson.
Still, I can’t help but think that Cejudo will be playing with fire should he opt for a pressuring approach, especially if he fails to produce results early and often. Even when hit flush, Moraes displays an insane recovery time, as he seems to consistently be able to get back on the clock and hit counters of his own. Moreover, if Moraes is allowed to establish any sort of striking rhythm with his kicks, then I suspect that the flyweight champ could be in for a rough night.
Though Cejudo has attempted and successfully hit kick counters in his career before, they have been few and far between with kick defense, in general, being one of the more vacant parts of his game from a defensive perspective. Furthermore, we have seen Cejudo (even this improved iteration of himself) eat head kicks that, if not for his durability, could have cost him. Unless Cejudo can catch Moraes early or bank takedowns often, then I can’t help but see the longtime Brazilian standout land a head kick up high come the second round.
Prediction: Moraes inside the distance
For more on UFC 238, visit the UFC Rumors section of the site.
