MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 238.
UFC 238 takes place Saturday at United Center in Chicago. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
Valentina Shevchenko (16-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Decision win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk (Dec. 8, 2018)
- Camp: Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas, NV)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ 17x muay Thai and K-1 championships
+ 9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro)
+ Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan)
+ 2 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Excellent footwork
^ Rarely out of position
+ Accurate check hook and counter cross
+ Hard knees, elbows and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
^ Good trips, tosses and positional awareness
+ Underrated takedown defense
^ Strong hips and base
Jessica Eye (14-6 MMA, 4-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
- Last fight: Decision win over Katlyn Chookagian(Dec. 8, 2018)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Amateur boxing experience
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Serviceable feints and footwork
+ Solid boxing ability
^ Active jabs, counter-cross
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Shows improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Solid transitional grappler
Point of interest: Volume and variety
The co-main event for UFC 238 features a flyweight title fight that might be a lot closer than some give credit.
Proving that 125 pounds was the right weight class all along, Jessica Eye has seemed nothing short of determined to show that she is the best in the division. And with a busy style to boot, Eye could provide some interesting challenges in the grand scheme of things.
Often associated with her boxing abilities, Eye has stayed true to her roots as she’s progressed as a pro in MMA. From her stance to her footwork, the Ohio amateur boxing champion works well behind a healthy dose of feints and prodding jabs.
Once getting a feel for the exchanges, Eye will attach crosses and hooks appropriately, punctuating her combinations with kicks when feeling in stride. The 32-year-old also seems to have a good feel for drawing offense out of her opposition, keeping a counter cross ready at all times.
That said, Eye – despite making concerted efforts with her head movement – has shown that she is not beyond being caught upright with crosses herself, making her meeting with a southpaw counter-striker an interesting one on paper.
Enter Valentina Shevchenko.
Coming from a martial arts family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat since age 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times).
A counter fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check-hooks to counter crosses on a hair-trigger. And whenever someone tries to step off to her weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults and liver kicks that help keep her opposition corralled.
Still, Shevchenko’s willingness to wait for the counter has costed her on the scorecards in certain bouts, which makes me wonder what her temperament will be heading into a matchup with another former bantamweight who is not afraid to throw.
Next point of interest: Who scores the takedowns?
Point of interest: Who scores the takedowns?
Both competitors’ credentials may primarily come from the striking realm, but each fighter has not been afraid to exercise her grappling game more often since moving down to flyweight.
No longer underrated inside of the clinch, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does the Kyrgyzstani wield mean elbows off the break, but she also does deceptive work to the body with knees, something that could pay dividends for her in a five-round affair.
Though many high-level strikers have failed to develop grappling games in MMA, I think that fighters who come from traditional muay Thai backgrounds bring an aspect of grappling that is typically understated. A devastating striking art with an often overlooked emphasis on clinch wrestling, Shevchenko embraced and excelled in the grappling aspects of muay Thai, which in turn granted her success while competing in that sport (as well as this one).
That said, Shevchenko is not beyond being taken down or being subject to activity lulls when inside of the clinch, which makes me wonder if Eye and her team intend on trying their hand at exploiting that aspect.
Not only has Eye shown a heightened interest in taking her foes to the mat since dropping back down to flyweight, but she has also moved shop to Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, something that has allowed her to work with high-level fighters and wrestlers like Gray Maynard and more. If Eye can successfully get Shevchenko down with a level-change early, then it could be telling of the American’s plan of attack.
However, even when Eye has scored takedowns in recent fights, she appears to be reluctant to follow up with offense on the floor, sometimes allowing opposition back up to their feet. Against a proven guard threat like Shevchenko, I will be curious to see if Eye elects to try and stake her claim to positional victories in this fight. But if Eye is the one who ends up on the bottom, then she will need to show more urgency than in past performances (albeit against strong grapplers at a higher weight).
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are seemingly piling onto the champion, listing Shevchenko -1375 and Eye +900 as of this writing.
These, ladies and gentlemen, are what I like to refer to as “Ronda Rousey odds.”
Don’t get me wrong: Shevchenko – a fighter who I’ve long-hailed as one of the most talented ladies to step in the octagon – is the deserved favorite here. It’s just that, for whatever reason, when a female athlete who seems a step ahead of her contemporaries matches up with a fighter who the gen pop lacks strong faith in, that fighter tends to get disrespected by the odds. And that’s what’s happening to Eye.
I know, I know. I’m picking against her below (something that is very difficult to do given my bias and history with the gym she now resides at, mind you).
Nevertheless, I still believe this fight could play out a lot closer than the betting lines let on. As much as I love Shevchenko’s southpaw stylings, she has been subject to activity lulls in multiple fights and positions that could be costly if she meets a fighter who knows how to abuse that.
I can’t be certain if Eye is that fighter, but she has a smart team behind her (led by Eric Nicksick) who knows how to do their homework and prepare for high-level contests. But at the end of the day, I have to do my best to put my biases aside to offer you my take as an analyst.
Since moving to flyweight, Eye has shown a new life that has admittedly won me over in the sense that I genuinely want to see her do well. Still, if she succeeds the shots that she’s taken in previous fights to Shevchenko (a fighter who even had Amanda Nunes thinking twice about engaging), then I think that the champion can open up pathways to work her way toward a finish. However, if Shevchenko fails to stop Eye and this fight ends up going to the cards, then I believe that people who laid the chalk on the champ will be sweating that the judges get this right.
Prediction: Shevchenko by decision
For more on UFC 238, visit the UFC Rumors section of the site.
