MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at a featured main-card fight for UFC 237.
UFC 237 takes place Saturday at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+.
Also see:
Jose Aldo (28-4 MMA, 10-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: TKO win over Renato Moicano (Feb. 2, 2019)
- Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC and WEC featherweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 4x Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion
+ 16 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
^ Good reactive instincts
+ Superb footwork
^ Lateral movement, pivots, back-steps
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Jabs and counter crosses
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Strong hips and base
Alexander Volkanovski (19-1 MMA, 6-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: TKO win over Chad Mendes (Dec. 29, 2018)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 11 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Improved striking ability
^ Dangerous right hand
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Dirty boxing, elbows, knees
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Excellent top game
^ Aggressive ground striker
Point of interest: Pressure-cooking the king of Rio
In one of the most meaningful matchups at UFC 237, Alexander Volkanovski will attempt to recreate his own version of what Max Holloway was able to do to the longtime king of Rio de Janeiro.
An accoladed wrestler-turned-rugby player, Volkanovski comes forward in a compact stance, traditionally approaching the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut. Prodding with jabs, fakes and feints, Volkanovski will crash the distance with crushing kicks or his patented overhand right.
Since moving shop to City Kickboxing in New Zealand, Volkanovski has seemingly sharpened his footwork and overall striking fundamentals, measuring and moving in space more smoothly and on balance than before. Still, The Australian-born Macedonian cannot afford to be careless in his aggression, nor too comfortable behind his usual defensive shell given the counter-fighting tactician who will be standing across from him on Saturday night.
Enter Jose Aldo.
Commanding the cage with disciplined, technical footwork, we have seen Aldo, time and time again, steadily pressure his opponents into exchanges on his terms. Consistently keeping his feet beneath him, the Nova Uniao staple is seldom out of position, which in turn allows him to counter with conviction.
Displaying a solid sense of head movement, Aldo often slips and returns authoritatively with right hand-left hook counters or leg kicks. When pressing forward, the former champ traditionally has been known for his classic “Dutchie” combination, launching a left hook to the liver that feeds nicely into a right leg kick that could serve him well, considering his counterpart tends to lean on a shelling defense.
However, as many have noticed by now, Aldo has been reluctant to go to his leg kicks in recent years.
If you listen to the Brazilian’s coaches and corner, then you will hear them telling their fighter to go to them sparingly, only encouraging Aldo to kick toward the end of rounds or the fight itself. And given the fact that Aldo seems to stay incredibly aware of opposition either trying to counter him or take him down, I will be curious to see if this trend continues given the looming level-changing threats that Volkanovski will likely be looking for.
Next point of interest: Ground trappings
Point of interest: Ground trappings
Given the propensity Volkanovski has for finding his way into some sort of clinch warfare, I will be intrigued to see just how much Aldo obliges him within grappling realms.
When not sprinkling in the occasional spinning elbow to his dirty boxing repertoire, Volkanovski is an aggressive takedown hunter who will relentlessly chain from single to double-legs in close, looking to suck his opposition’s hips from the fence.
However, if Volkanovski intends on taking things to the mat, out-wrestling Aldo still appears to be one of the tallest orders this division has to offer.
With quick-footed demonstrations of agility being Aldo’s modus operandi in regards to his takedown defense, his athleticism continues on through his hips – a place from which he generates a lot of his power – often shucking opponents off him from a multitude of positions.
Coupled with the offensive wrestling game that has seemingly died down in the recent years of his career, Aldo, too, could pose some surprising threats in this contest. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is the better grappler on paper and Volkanovski is a wrestler who is far from impervious to the takedown.
That said, Volkanovski also prides himself on his ability to get up from the bottom, something he was able to prove in spades when battling both Darren Elkins and Chad Mendes. And though Aldo can cut to/punish from the mount position like few can, the former champ could get more than he bargains for if he sells out at the wrong time and ends up underneath his Australian counterpart.
Once able to establish himself topside, Volkanovski almost resembles a honey badger in his behavior.
Staking his claim to positions like he is fighting for his last meal, Volkanovski will immediately break down any posts his opponent looks to use in a standing effort, unabashedly swarming them with strikes while floating from wrestling rides. If Aldo gives even the inkling of being hurt or fatigued, then we could see these exchanges start to sway Volkanovski’s way down the stretch.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former champ, listing Aldo -130 and Volkanovski +110 as of this writing.
Given the public’s propensity to fade “former greats” against your proverbial oncoming forces, I will be curious to see if this line continues to tighten up, possibly even turning come fight time. Or, perhaps, the public and pros alike are having as difficult a time taking a side on this matchup as I am.
As I attest in the breakdown video earlier, I don’t believe that Aldo is done or that he is an undeserving favorite in this spot, yet I still find myself stammering when it comes to pulling the trigger and picking him. I picked Holloway to upset Aldo the last time the Brazilian legend fought in Rio due to how the Hawaiian’s building nature stacked up against a fighter who – though talented everywhere – quietly needs his pockets of space to recoup and recover.
Aldo may not have the mental burden of having to worry about five rounds here (which is likely a trend for his recent success), but Volkanvoksi’s juggernaut-like pressure has proven that he can break most men within three frames. Nevertheless, I find it hard to ignore the fact that Volkanovski’s game at range (apart from his feints, of course) largely consists of prodding jabs offensively and a shelling guard defensively – techniques that Aldo has consistently made his money off of.
If the previously-mentioned Elkins and Mendes were able to find right hands and left hooks around Volkanovski’s guard, then I suspect Aldo will as well. But if Aldo fails to sting the Australian to the liver or find a follow-up finish off of a concussive blow, then I can’t help but see Volkanovski’s unrelenting pressure produce a stoppage come the third round.
Prediction: Volkanovski inside the distance
For more on UFC 237, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
