(Editor’s note: This story first published on April 11.)
MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 236.
UFC 236 takes place Saturday at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass.
Max Holloway (20-4 MMA, 16-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: TKO win over Brian Ortega (Dec. 8, 2018)
- Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Attacks off angles/manages distance well
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Strikes well off the break
+ Deceptive counter grappling/wrestling
^ 83 percent takedown defense rate
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition
+/- 0-2 against UFC southpaws
Dustin Poirier (24-5 MMA, 16-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: TKO win over Eddie Alvarez(July 28, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 12 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Improved overall boxing
^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
+ Accurate left cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Solid submissions and scrambling
Point of interest: Building vs. demolishing
The main event for UFC 236 features a fun rematch between a building striker with a not-so-slow burning trajectory and a “fighter’s fighter” who will find any means necessary to demolish his target.
Dustin Poirier, for all intents and purposes, is the demolishing force at hand who has taken the long road to get here.
The 10-year pro from Louisiana has shown to evolve from the once eager slugger to a more mature fighter who likes to dictate brawls rather than enter them. In fact, Poirier has made significant upgrades to his game since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Demonstrating an excellent awareness of distance and footwork, the slugging southpaw will shift his stance for setups (often doubling up on strikes from the same side) as he adjusts his angles accordingly with fight-ending shots in mind.
Utilizing this style of shifting to create attack opportunities, Poirier has shown to sit down more on his punches, giving three fighters their first stoppage losses since returning to 155 pounds. The 30-year-old also displays improvements to his prodding, pulling and returning — countering tactics that could serve him well considering the offensive swarm coming his way.
Enter Max Holloway.
Displaying solid striking and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Holloway, who was already improving from fight-to-fight, turned the biggest corner after his encounter with Cub Swanson.
Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from the Hawaiian, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the current featherweight king makes for a hard read on the feet.
When feeling in stride, the 27-year-old looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a fight in many different directions.
That all said, it is the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable.
Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway will not only build in his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game. For example, against Ricardo Lamas, Holloway ate a healthy dose of leg kicks throughout their battle. However, in looking closer at the exchanges, you will see Holloway steadily get a read on the attacks – evading, checking and countering the kicks by the end of the contest.
Still, offensive volume – no matter how clever – comes with a price. So, with that in mind, I will be curious to see if Poirier can detonate deadly counters anytime Holloway looks to procure building materials.
Next point of interest: Return of the mat?
Point of interest: Return of the mat?
Although their first fight was so long ago (and both men have matured a lot since), I can’t help but wonder if Poirier will look to return Holloway to the mat – a task that most have failed to do since the young Hawaiian’s first loss.
Sure, Holloway’s fleet of foot movement makes him difficult to pin down inside of an octagon, but he is still not beyond being timed or taken down with the proper choices in play. With that in mind, I would not be surprised to see Poirier test the takedown waters early.
The Louisiana native is more than competent enough to hit a level-changing double but arguably does his best takedown work once able to corral his opponents against the cage. However, I’m not so sure Poirier will be able to ground Holloway as easily this time around.
The Hawaiian’s superb striking may hallmark a large part of his brand, but Holloway has quietly made consistent improvements to his counter grappling, only being taken down three times in the past four years. Even when having his takedown defense tested by one of the best wrestlers in the featherweight division, Holloway successfully thwarted the shots of Ricardo Lamas while smoothly re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own.
Not only does Holloway display the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the breaks, something that could be worth watching for in this fight.
More importantly, whether Holloway is conducting himself from the clinch or inside the chaos of transition, he has always prioritized protecting his neck and head by either maintaining an upright posture in close or keeping his hands in the proper neighborhood to defend grasps. This note, in particular, is useful when considering his current counterpart’s acumen from the front headlock position.
Poirier, who has a plethora of D’arce chokes and guillotine setups, navigates comfortably and confidently from a front headlock grasp. An excellent transitional grappler, Poirier can make hay from many positions and is not afraid to hold from topside while pouring on the punishment.
Whether he is baiting submissions to pass or using an underhook to dictate position, Poirier should be the savvier grappler on paper. But with Holloway’s trend of shrugging off challenges in that department, do not be surprised to see an even playing field come Saturday night.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the man who is moving up, listing Holloway -225 and Poirier +185 as of this writing.
Given that Poirier won the first fight and will likely be the larger man on the night, I can understand why some may find hesitancy in the betting spread above. In fact, Poirier has more offensive weapons when incorporating his grappling trends, which means you can make the argument that he has more ways to win this fight.
The potential problem, however, may come in the defense department. Despite being less reliant on his shell and incorporating more functional slips and rolls into his defensive repertoire, Poirier’s body (as well as his legs) seem to be the most available target on paper.
With that in mind, things could get ugly down the stretch should Holloway – who I believe is the best body puncher, regardless of weight class, in the UFC – find his rhythm early and often.
Nevertheless, I still suspect Poirier’s power will make him the more dangerous party in the early rounds. But if his counter cross and check hook (shots that I see having play on Holloway ) fail to produce measurable results, then I suspect Holloway will pull away with his patented bodywork and breakneck pace down the stretch for a late stoppage in the fourth or fifth frames.
Prediction: Holloway inside the distance
For more on UFC 236, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
