MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-=main event for UFC 236.
UFC 236 takes place Saturday at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass.
Kelvin Gastelum (16-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 27 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: Decision win over Jacare Souza (May 12, 2018)
- Camp: Kings MMA (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ “TUF 17” winner
+ 10th Planet jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Wrestling base
+ 8 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ Dropped or stopped 7 of last 8 opponents
+ High-pressure approach
^ Good volume and combinations
+ Improved boxing
^ Accurate hooks and crosses
+ Hard left body kick
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid wrestling and scrambles
+ Strong from front-headlock
^ Always looks for back
Israel Adesanya (15-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 29 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 81″
- Last fight: Decision win over Anderson Silva(Feb. 9, 2019)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good base and balance
+ Shows improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+/- Limited overall grappling sample size
Point of interest: Pressure of young prodigies
The co-main event in Atlanta features an interesting style match for the interim middleweight title.
Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Israel Adesanya was introduced to martial arts at a young age and is no stranger to the big stage of competition.
The Nigerian started spreading his proverbial wings within the kickboxing arena in his adopted home of New Zealand, as well as in a brief stint in China, where he was able to showcase his skills to international audiences. Adesanya also dabbled in professional boxing while earning himself a 5-1 record and two tournament titles in the process.
A cunning martial artist, Adesanya earns his moniker with his creative striking flow. Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to establish his reads and set up his shots accordingly.
When feeling in stride, the 29-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether they’re powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood in the water, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.
From hand-traps that parlay into elbows to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges. Still, styles make fights, and I can’t help but wonder how he will stack up with the stout, southpaw pressure headed his way.
Enter Kelvin Gastelum.
If this was the middleweight division that boxing offered in the early 1980s, Gastelum may very well be our Roberto Duran.
An inherent pressure-fighter who steps up to the plate no matter the size discrepancy, we have seen Gastelum’s striking skills come to fruition under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA. Having a history of transforming high-level grapplers (especially southpaws) into dangerous strikers, Cordeiro has seemingly imparted the same knowledge onto Gastelum, who now incorporates crushing liver kicks to his already potent punches.
Staying in the Southern California scene, we also have watched Gastelum make measurable improvements to his boxing and footwork. Pivoting more off of his right hand, Gastelum will now take better angles, getting the jump on opponents mid-exchange. And akin to the comparison above, Gastelum’s comfort when it comes to boxing in the pocket or countering on the inside has also improved.
Nevertheless, Gastelum’s pressure is a two-way street in regards to offense and counters, which makes me suspect that we will further see his noted durability tested in this matchup.
Next point of interest: Grappling for supremacy
Point of interest: Grappling for supremacy
With the on-paper striking edge going to Adesanya, you can’t help but wonder if Gastelum will return to his wrestling base for tactical reasons, at the very least.
Despite trending away from your typical offensive wrestling game, Gastelum still possesses legitimate takedown skills and, more importantly, the ability to make a fight ugly in his favor. Even if he isn’t initiating or winning the grappling exchanges at first, the Mexican-American fighter has a knack for turning things around.
A natural inside of a scramble, Gastelum shows a solid sense of positional awareness, fighting grips and staying calm in the process. And when he decides to get going, the Arizona state champion’s wrestling chops shine through in the way in which he goes about his business.
Whether he is floating from a front-headlock series or using a Peterson or Granby roll to create reversal opportunities, Gastelum can be a handful for any fighter not familiar with that sort of repertoire. That said, he will be facing an opponent who has no interest in playing that game.
Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown surprising clinch savvy in regards to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper headspace to keep strikes at the ready to deliver off of the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle the approaches of Gastelum.
As far as defending takedowns go, I would argue that Adesanya has been showing the work on his counter grappling for some time. Dating back to his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of over and underhook leverage.
Since that time, Adesanya has appeared to make steady improvements to his defensive grappling, smartly fightings grips and protecting his hips, typically while using the cage for assistance. Coupled with his natural base and balance, the seven-year pro seems to be harder and harder to control.
However, in certain performances (like his bout with Marvin Vettori), Adesanya showed that he still has room to grow in regards to his offense and mobility from his back. He was able to eventually get back to his feet, but one couldn’t help but think what a more capable opponent could do in future matchups should that area not get shored.
Now, does that mean that Gastelum will be the man to tax the undefeated striking sensation?
I’m not sure.
What I do know, though, is that if Adesanya’s short fight with Derek Brunson told us anything about the Nigerian’s counter grappling, it’s that Adesanya continues to get better and will probably prove difficult to take down early. But if he does fall victim to a takedown, I will be curious to see if Adesanya immediately looks to turtle and stand given Gastelum’s front-headlock and back-taking acumen.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the striking phenom, listing Adesanya -175 and Gastelum +155 as of this writing.
Despite my official pick, I don’t disagree with Adesanya being the favorite in this spot. He’s a special talent with all the intangibles for success, and his nine-inch reach advantage is also hard to ignore.
If Adesanya can establish his rhythm early, then I could see him show his striking superiority by picking and placing his shots with impunity, all the while frustrating Gastelum by making him miss. That said, Adesanya is not known as a one-punch knockout artist (unless he lands a flush knee or head kick, of course), which means things could get even more interesting if the durable Gastelum is able to continue to push forward throughout the contest.
I will also be curious to see when, specifically, Gastelum elects to encroach upon Adesanya’s space. For instance: When Anderson Silva faced Adesanya, Silva (who also fights from a southpaw stance) would blitz Adesanya any time he switched to southpaw, finding his best moments in the match when doing so.
In looking closer, this was likely not a coincidence considering that Alex Pereira – a fighter who beat Adesanya twice in kickboxing – was in Silva’s corner for that fight. Pereira not only beat Adesanya twice but also knocked him out in their second meeting – when Adesanya was in a southpaw stance, no less.
Now, I’m not saying that Gastelum will attempt to replicate that knockout (or that he and his team are even aware of that perceived opportunity), but we’ve seen high-level strikers get taxed by lesser on-paper competition in MMA before. Only the fighters themselves know if they have a “weak side,” but if Adesanya – who has spectacular offense and counters from southpaw – does not have an equal level of defense from that side, then he won’t be able to afford to sleep on the deceptive distance-closing abilities of Gastelum, who has dropped or stopped seven of his last eight opponents.
I hate picking against a fighter who I not only like, but also believe to be a future champion. Still, I can’t help but suspect that Gastelum may quietly be stylistic kryptonite for someone with the shine of Adesanya. Whether it be by a shocking knockout or an attritive grappling effort that gets things down the stretch, I see Gastelum upsetting the odds to earn himself the interim middleweight title.
Prediction: Gastelum inside the distance
For more on UFC 236, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
