Nate Diaz may be the worst thing that ever happened to Conor McGregor.
Since the UFC matched the pair earlier this year, Diaz has held the advantage over the fast-talking and fast-punching Dubliner in virtually every aspect.
It’s under these conditions that the two meet at UFC 202 on Saturday. Again they both move up in weight to fight at 170lbs (McGregor jumps two weight-classes to Diaz’s one), and the onus is on the smaller Irishman, the current UFC featherweight champion, to find answers in a rivalry that once it’s over may serve him well in just one department: his bank account.
“I have reasons why I performed that way [in their last fight, which McGregor lost],” McGregor said, “but tune in 20 August and you’ll see the real me.”
But even if the “real” McGregor does show up — and it’s not as if he was ineffectual in the first fight while slamming crisp combinations into Diaz bloodied face — the fact is that his opponent’s ring experience, durability, skill and determination have not declined.
Despite operating as a slight betting favorite heading into the contest in Las Vegas, a number of factors makes McGregor’s chances appear fleeting.
We can start with mental warfare.
McGregor has been effective at riling up his opponents, particularly the Brazilian great Jose Aldo prior to taking the 145lb title from him last year, but he has failed to have much effect on Diaz. He tried to insinuate that Diaz’s team-mates and trainers were nobodies before their fight at UFC 196. It was a preposterous stance, but that has never stopped him from making good use of such statements in the past. Diaz, though, shrugged them off - or told McGregor exactly where to go.
“I think he got a lot of people around him and he’s trying to pump himself up,” Diaz said. “He’s either lying to himself or to the world about his confidence or trying to make himself believe it. But he remembers what happened in the last fight, and I think it’s a little silly, man. He’s got pictures of me in his garage with me punching him in the face. What the fuck? Who does that? You’re trying to make yourself believe something. He’s trying to hype himself up, but when he goes to sleep at night, he remembers what happened the last time.”
Leading up to UFC 202, again McGregor has filled the air with words that thumped heavy to the ground. Ramping up the volume, or the swearing, or the funny one-liners hasn’t meant squat when it comes to getting Diaz out of his comfort zone. Meanwhile Diaz’s verbal responses, or lack thereof, seem to provide him with an advantage, as if McGregor is below his contempt.
Then there’s the fight itself. In their contest last March, McGregor had success early. McGregor had taken to calling Diaz a heavy bag with eyeballs, a real-life Homer Simpson, and for periods of that fight it was not the most ludicrous description. But those early breakthroughs caused overconfidence, and he actually pushed the pace to the point of forcing himself on Diaz, a huge mistake against a larger man with a soft chin.
“He gave it his all in that fight, obviously,” Diaz said. “He tried to finish it out and he was hitting me with everything he could hit me with. I went in there expecting to be a punching bag for at least 15 minutes.”
Diaz the punching bag was able to absorb the blows before launching a counter-attack on the smaller man, something that led to the Californian’s victory.
McGregor should be wary. Fighting on 11 days’ notice last time and just over a week of training, Diaz was not nearly as fit as he will be on Saturday following a full camp.
“I’m interested to see what the boy has done with a full camp,” McGregor said. “Let’s see what his full camp has done. I believe I am the better fighter by a long stretch. He is tough, durable and big, that’s it. He’s spoke a big game about it, so let’s see.”
What can McGregor do from a physical standpoint that he wasn’t able to the first time?
The most important thing is he now knows what to expect. He’s fully aware that even a crisp left to the jaw may not be enough to shake Diaz, though for Saturday’s contest he offered a prediction of a knockout within two rounds. What he should do is accept the truth that five or six of those punches still may not be enough.
McGregor is simply not a welterweight and the power he brings at 145lbs didn’t follow him as he moved up to 170 after preparing to fight Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight title. So the fatigue he experienced while trying and failing to put Diaz away should be less of a factor so long as he manages expectations, especially since McGregor has designed his $300,000 training camp around sparring heavier, larger men.
“Usually at the end of camp I’m banged up, I’m absolutely perfect,” said the featherweight champion. “[At this point] in the last camp I was in a bad way [because of] the opponent change, I was banged up. This time, I’m fresh, I’m underweight and I know he’s about 200lbs. It’s been a phenomenal camp and I look forward to showcasing what I’ve been doing in the gym.”
McGregor’s trainer, John Kavanagh, said his charge must be patient, pick and choose the moments to bring heat, and avoid making a finish happen. That’s all well and good, but a patient McGregor could play out badly. If Diaz can bide time to sort out his range so he can pump out jabs and some of the best straight lefts in the business, there may not be much McGregor can do.
“For McGregor there’s no other adjustment,” said Diaz’s longtime boxing coach Richard Perez. “He’s got to try and come out there. If he takes his time and tries to pick shots he’s going to be in trouble. Either way he’s going to be in trouble. Conor is a small guy. He’s going to have to get a really good shot in there. A one in a million shot. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but as long as Nathan is sharp and does what he’s gotta do McGregor can’t step up to him.”
And on the floor? Diaz would seem to have the edge here too, though McGregor has clung to the notion that an opening round sweep of the longtime Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in their previous fight strongly indicates his ability to be successful on the canvas. It was exhaustion, not a deficiency of skill, that prompted McGregor to operate in panic mode. A failed takedown meant he was quickly mounted and absorbing punches prior to rolling into the fight-ending rear-naked choke.
“A lot of fighters quit,” Diaz noted. “I get them in that guillotine and they’re done. They stay on top and get finished. He went to his back that a lot of fighters don’t do. That’s one thing, he didn’t give up. But there was nowhere to go.”
Diaz is the bigger man and it made a difference while grappling last time. So why fight once more at 170? Pride. In McGregor’s mind he would be less of fighter if he asked for a weight cut. This is happening again because McGregor demanded it and Diaz happily obliged once he financially secured what he wanted for the trouble. Diaz and McGregor set the UFC record for pay-per-views last time out, and the trends say they’ll do it again.
The money is excellent, though great risk exists on Saturday for the famed Irishman. Perhaps too much. A loss would leave him with little leverage, forcing a return to 145lbs (if in fact he can make the weight again) or starting anew at 155lbs, where the UFC could match him with a monster like Khabib Nurmagomedov.
“The highs are high and the lows are very, very low,” McGregor said. “This is the game we’re in. No one makes it out of this game unscathed, all you have to do is look at the history books. I made my plans for revenge and that’s it.”
