There’s no shortage of markets that have become dominated by just two companies.
Notable duopolies have emerged in fast food, with McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and Burger King becoming the iconic brands. Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) and Dunkin rule the coffee landscape, and Nike (NYSE: NKE) and Adidas (OTCMKTS: ADDDF) are at the forefront of athletic apparel and footwear.
But other duopolies have a more tenuous relationship. And when it comes to Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT), it looks like the former is en route to becoming a veritable rideshare monopoly.
Uber’s Global Footprint Helped It Pull Away
Uber now operates in over 70 countries, including 15,000 cities worldwide. Specifically, the company maintains operations in Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and other heavily populated Asian nations.
That provides Uber with a particular edge over Lyft.
While Lyft primarily operates in the United States and Canada, its July 31 acquisition of FREENOW expanded its operations to 11 European countries.
But that’s likely a case of too little, too late.
While Lyft's expansion into Europe is notable, Uber has a foothold in the world’s largest and most populous continent.
According to market consultancy firm Grand View Research, the global rideshare market is projected to undergo a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% from 2025 to 2030, reaching a value of $96.9 billion. The Asia Pacific market is the largest with a 49.3% revenue share. In that market, Lyft presently poses zero risk to Uber.
Lyft Lags in Autonomous Vehicle Technology
As a transportation-first company, Uber operates in the industrials sector.
But the rideshare company is still, in many ways, a technology company. Uber has been leaning heavily into growth strategies that focus on electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs). The company already has AV mobility and delivery deployments in a dozen cities across three countries, with an additional five cities slated to join by year’s end.
Uber’s AV technology isn’t being used solely for human transportation, either. The company is tapping AV for food delivery using all-electric sidewalk robots as well as dipping its toes into freight using autonomous trucking.
According to the company, “Uber Freight delivers an end-to-end enterprise suite of logistics solutions to advance supply chains while maximizing savings, visibility, and efficiency.” That’s resulted in $1 billion saved over the past year by companies using the program to deliver 18 million shipments. Lyft doesn’t offer a freight program, nor does it have any plans to do so.
Still, Lyft is also investing in AV programs.
The company has strategic partnerships with Waymo, Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), and Tensor, and is moving towards developing its own fleet.
But Uber has a leg up in the AV race, having partnered with legacy automaker Stellantis (NYSE: STLA), luxury EV maker Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID), and self-driving tech company Nuro.
Other AV partners include Waymo, Volkswagen (OTCMKTS: VWAGY), and Volvo (OTCMKTS: VLVLY).
Uber’s Membership Program Has More Users Than Lyft’s Entire Customer Base
Both companies have successfully launched membership models, but they’re not apples to apples.
Uber One, Uber's membership model, provides savings on eligible rides, Uber Eats deliveries, eligible delivery fee-free orders, and discounts on groceries. Uber One costs $9.99 per month or $96 per year and auto-renews.
Lyft’s primary membership program—Lyft Pink—also offers ride discounts, priority pickups, and free scooter rentals. The program is similarly priced ($9.99 monthly and $99 per year) and also autorenews, but it falls short by omitting a food delivery option.
While Lyft doesn’t disclose figures for its Lyft Pink program, the company reported a total of 25 million active riders across the entire Lyft platform. Uber One alone has 36 million members, and Uber as a whole has approximately 180 million monthly active users.
In FY 2024, Uber Eats contributed $13.7 billion to the company’s top line—a 13.2% year-over-year (YOY) increase from FY 2023. Lyft, by contrast, previously tried to delve into food delivery but has since abandoned those efforts.
At its current run rate, it is estimated that the company will see that figure increase to more than $15 billion in revenue by the conclusion of 2025. Underscoring that figure, Uber’s largest competitor in food delivery—DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH)—brought in just $10.72 billion in FY 2024.
Uber’s Eye-Catching Increases in Bookings and Revenue
Uber has averaged 19.6% YOY increases in bookings over the past five quarters, which has translated into 19% YOY increases in revenue over the same period.
So it’s little surprise that analysts are more bullish on the stock than they are on Lyft.
Uber receives a consensus Moderate Buy rating with the average 12-month price target representing 6.81% upside from today’s price.
Lyft receives a consensus Hold rating with the average 12-month price target suggesting 6.05% downside from today’s price.
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The article "Uber Is Crushing Lyft—And It’s Not Even Close" first appeared on MarketBeat.
