President Trump said Monday that he will approve the sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia, making the kingdom the first country in the Middle East other than Israel to obtain the advanced fighter jets.
Why it matters: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is expected to meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday. The F-35 deal, a U.S.-Saudi security agreement and possible normalization with Israel will be on the agenda.
What he's saying: "They want to buy. They are a great ally. We will be doing that. We will be selling them F-35s," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
The big picture: The U.S. sells the F-35 primarily to formal military allies, such as NATO members or Japan. Israel is the only country in the Middle East that currently has them.
- The supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia would change the military balance in the region and affect Israel's qualitative military edge (QME), which administrations of both parties have worked to maintain.
- Congress officially codified the U.S. commitment to Israel's QME into law in 2008.
- Congress would have to review a potential F-35 deal, and could block it.
State of play: Israel doesn't oppose Saudi Arabia getting F-35s, but asked the Trump administration to condition the sale on the kingdom normalizing relations with Israel.
- "We told the Trump administration that the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia needs to be subject to Saudi normalization with Israel," one Israeli official said.
- The official added that the U.S. giving Saudi Arabia F-35s without getting any diplomatic deliverables in return would be "a mistake and counterproductive."
- Trump mentioned no such caveats in his remark on Monday. He has previously touted massive arms deals with the Gulf states as mutually beneficial.
What to watch: Israel will likely ask for security guarantees from the U.S. if an F-35 deal goes through with Saudi Arabia.
- "It takes minutes for an F-35 to fly from Saudi Arabia to Israel," the official said.
- Israel will likely demand that any F-35s supplied to Saudi Arabia not be deployed to Saudi air force bases in the Western parts of the country.
