On Jan. 3, the United States carried out a military operation in Caracas that resulted in the deaths of at least 100 civilians, soldiers and security officers, with the stated goal of capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
Although the operation achieved that objective, the decision by the Trump administration sparked a global debate over its legality, with critics warning it could become a double-edged sword by setting precedents that U.S. adversaries such as China and Russia could later cite to justify their own military actions.
"My main concern now is that Russia will use this to justify their illegal and barbaric military actions against Ukraine, or China to justify an invasion of Taiwan," Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., said in a statement.
The debate, however, extends beyond questions of legality to how the operation itself may be interpreted by U.S. adversaries and what signals it sends about American military intent and its capabilities.
Speaking to Fox News, Pedro Garmendia, a Washington-based geopolitical risk analyst, said international law has never constrained Russia or China from launching military operations and that deterrence is shaped less by legal arguments than by demonstrations of power, speed and capability.
"I don't think Putin or Xi ever doubted that power overrides sovereignty," Garmendia said. "What we've seen consistently from China and Russia is that they invoke international law when it suits them and ignore it when it doesn't."
For analysts such as Garmendia, the most striking aspect of the Jan. 3 operation is not the potential diplomatic fallout or any responses by U.S. rivals, but the speed, effectiveness and lethality of the operation itself. He said the use of decisive force, coupled with the Trump administration publicly owning the decision, carries its own deterrent value.
Military authorities said U.S. forces spent months rehearsing the operation, including training on a full-scale replica of Maduro's compound, studying his daily routines and tracking how his security team rotated, Fox News reported.
Echoing that view, former FBI counterintelligence operative Eric O'Neill told the outlet that the details surrounding Maduro's arrest and the operation itself are likely to resonate more with Russia and China than legal debates unfolding at the United Nations.
"At least while Trump is in office, it's going to look a lot like deterrence to China and Russia," O'Neill said. "They didn't even get a chance to blink before Maduro was gone."
O'Neill added that the execution sent a broader message.
"That sends a strong signal that the United States can find its adversaries anywhere in the world," he said, arguing that rivals already inclined to violate international norms are unlikely to be emboldened by an action they lack the capability to replicate.
Nonetheless, the United Nations, along with Russia and China, raised concerns about the legality of the operation.
In a statement, China said it was "deeply shocked," condemning what it described as the U.S. "blatant use of force against a sovereign state and its action against its president," and said the move "seriously violates international law" while threatening stability in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Russia similarly denounced the operation at the United Nations as a violation of sovereignty and international law, even as it continues its war in Ukraine while rejecting international legal judgments and condemnation.
As noted by Fox News, that contrast underscores the broader takeaway: adversaries may invoke international law for political effect, but what ultimately shapes their calculations is demonstrated capability, particularly when paired with the ability to plan, rehearse and execute an operation without warning.
© 2025 Latin Times. All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without permission.
