Will economic sanctions against Iran lead to peace and stability in the Middle East? The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump must avoid unnecessarily expanding and prolonging its sanctions, and carefully work out an exit strategy.
The United States has fully resumed sanctions on Iran. The main pillar of the sanctions is to ban crude oil dealings, a lifeline for the Iranian economy. The U.S. move also includes financial sanctions, prohibiting payments and other settlement procedures from being completed with Iran's central bank. Third-country corporations that violated the sanctions would face a ban on transactions with U.S. companies and large penalties.
The United States has said eight nations and regions, including Japan, China and India, will be temporarily excluded from punitive measures, thereby permitting them to conduct limited transactions with Iran. However, a grace period for such exemptions will likely be set at 180 days, meaning the United States remains unchanged in barring all dealings with Iran.
Caution should be exercised about a situation in which the possible spread of concern about crude oil supplies causes a rise in prices.
Japan's crude oil imports from Iran account for 5 percent of the total volume. If dealings with Iran are cut, it will undermine the diversity of suppliers. That is not desirable from the standpoint of securing resources in a stable manner, either.
In response to the U.S. announcement of resumed sanctions, Japanese oil wholesale companies have already temporarily suspended Iranian crude oil imports and switched to imports from such countries as Saudi Arabia. The Japanese government must appeal to the United States so that dealings with Iran can be resumed and continue.
Look out for global economy
The sanctions on Iran were lifted in the wake of the Iran nuclear accord of 2015, but Trump said in May this year that his country would withdraw from the agreement. With midterm elections set for Tuesday, he seems to want to deny the accord, which was reached under the administration of former President Barack Obama, and emphasize the resumed sanctions as an achievement.
The sanctions, which seek to cut off Iran's crude oil income and exclude the country from international financial transactions, can be described as a "powerful drug." Trump must avoid improperly using the sanctions in consideration of their influence on the world economy, not just praise his own measures as the "strongest sanctions ever."
The objective of the U.S. move is understandable, as it aims to curb Iran's provocative actions, such as its ballistic missile development and interference in the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars. The problem is that there is no telling what kind of strategy the United States has adopted in pursuit of a new comprehensive nuclear accord that will address these pending problems, too.
Britain, France and Germany, as well as the European Union, have drawn a line between the United States and themselves, and have said they "strongly regret" the U.S. decision to resume the sanctions. Japan, China and Russia also support the nuclear accord, emphasizing that it is playing a role in curbing Iran's nuclear development.
Iran is poised to refuse dialogue with the United States and is attempting to turn the current situation into an endurance contest through continued transactions with China, Russia and European countries. Trump should recognize that it is impossible to create stability in the Middle East, solely by increasing cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Israel, both hostile toward Iran.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 6, 2018)
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