Earlier this month, scientists revealed the megadrought in the Southwest region of the country has become so severe that the past 20 years is now the driest 20 year-span the region has seen in 1,200 years. While that statistic is fraught with alarming consequences like water shortages and increased wildfire risk, the Southwest part of the country is not alone in drought concerns. As of mid-February, nearly three-quarters of the U.S. has some level of drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor and farmers across many parts of the country are concerned about the drought and soil moisture content as they prepare for the upcoming planting season, while also keeping an eye on the long-term forecast for the summer.
My colleague, John Baranick, a senior agricultural meteorologist at DTN, shared his insights on the upcoming planting season highlighting that the drought may have a significant impact on production, particularly in the western half of the country, which includes large areas of wheat, corn and soybean production. While there are still drought conditions in Northwest and throughout the Plains, it’s been fairly stagnant through the winter, leading to some cautious optimism among producers.
The current drought conditions in these regions started back in the summer of 2020 which led to last year’s historic drought conditions in the Northern Plains. North Dakota, for example, saw 22 weeks of “exceptional” drought and are currently facing 46 weeks of “extreme” drought — both records for the state. This spring’s current weather pattern suggests that precipitation may be normal to slightly below normal and that could prolong and build the drought conditions.
In his planting outlook, Baranick added that the next two months look to be on the colder side of normal and that could continue into May, leading to shorter planting windows as there could be late-frost issues with which to contend. “Even if there isn’t a problem getting crops in the ground, soil moisture is going to be an ongoing issue this year for all crops. This has significant economic implications as last year, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas produced over 20 percent of the total corn and soybean crops,” said Baranick.
The forecast shows some good news for the Central and Southern Plains, including some opportunities in March that favor some precipitation, but the drought is so deep that the precipitation may or may not make for widespread improvements. And April doesn’t seem to be helping with a drier than normal forecast that will continue into the summer.
Baranick pointed out that while farmers in the West deal with dry conditions, producers that are east of the Mississippi may have the opposite problem. “The spring pattern is favoring above-normal precipitation across the Eastern Corn Belt potentially all the way into June. When combined with colder than average temperatures and late-frost potential across the north, the soil could be fairly wet, making planting windows a bit shorter for corn and soybeans,” said Baranick. “That soil moisture will make for more challenging timing for planting, but on a positive note, it should be better for early growth. Because this region didn’t deal with drought last fall, the recent increased precipitation has only maintained soil moisture in these areas.”
Even with areas of increased precipitation this spring and summer, drought will continue to be the single biggest weather concern for U.S. producers going into the 2022 season and will likely have an impact on spring planting across much of the country.
