NFL TV ratings are down through the first two weeks of the season and theories on the reasons why are already flying. It’s the changing media landscape as more Americans cut the cord and stream while they scream. It’s the first wave of people unable to stomach the violence in the game. It’s the impact of conservative activists boycotting the league over Colin Kaepernick.
Probably, maybe and unlikely. (Kaepernick has one of the best-selling jerseys in the league now, so it’s unlikely he’s done anything but help the NFL’s bottom line.) But while we’re randomly tossing out theories like we’re Jameis Winson hurling the ball into a crowd of Cardinals defenders, here’s one more theory: people aren’t engaged by the 2016 season yet because we already saw this exact season a year ago.
See if any of these mid-September storylines sound remotely new to those of you reading who fall in the older-than-age-one demographic. The Broncos are winning with a stifling defense and middling quarterback play. The Patriots are running away from their sub-rate divisional opponents while the Deflategate fallout drags on. The Bengals can’t win a big game. The Browns can’t win any game. Aaron Rodgers seems off his game. Andrew Luck is losing the ball and games. The Steelers are faring well without a suspended Le’Veon Bell. And the Cowboys are hoping to hang around in a bunched-up NFC East division while Tony Romo recovers from injury.
It’s all the same. This year we don’t even get to wring our hands about the early-season struggles of a supposed serious contender. The Panthers and Cardinals were the top two seeds in the NFC last year and both lost their openers. So is everyone now panicking in Charlotte and Phoenix? Nope. Both blew out their week 2 opponents. So much for that. Carolina and Arizona and the rest of their fellow 2015 playoff teams are 16-8 on the young season. Only Washington is winless. Every team that was good last year still looks pretty good today (as long as you admit Washington wasn’t actually a good team last season). Parity can produce entertainment; inertia does not.
The NFL hasn’t given us any fancy new toys to enjoy, either. The Jaguars were thought to be a breakout candidate, and all they’ve done is force Gus Bradley to find space on the hot seat alongside Rex Ryan. The Raiders were thought to be on the rise, too, but they’ve given up 69 points through their first two games to the Saints and Falcons and now play four of their next six games on the road. Jared Goff, the No1 overall pick in the draft, can’t crack the Rams lineup. No2 pick Carson Wentz is an unknown, No3 Joey Bosa hasn’t played, No4 Ezekiel Elliott has struggled to pick up yards and hold on to the ball. Texans rookie receiver Will Fuller looks undeniably dynamic, but take him away and that’s pretty much it. There is very little shiny or new in the NFL.
It feels like 2015 all over again, only with Tom Brady at tailgates and Peyton Manning now appearing exclusively during commercial breaks instead of during commercial breaks and some Broncos games. Sure, the Giants and Ravens have surprised a bit at 2-0, but Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are the faces of those franchises and are very much the opposite of fresh and exciting. They’ve been plaguing fans since the first “elite” debate was unleashed on an unsuspecting populace years ago. Even player injuries – which is scraping the absolute bottom of the barrel to find something new – seem done before. Romo, Robert Griffin, Arian Foster, Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, Rob Gronkowski and Adrian Peterson are all hurt? Seen it. We’re one Maurkice Pouncey ailment away from recreating every NFL injury report in modern times. To find a story unique to the NFL of 2016, you have to go with a backup quarterback who makes his presence known along the sidelines. We’re still waiting for some news on the field.
So it’s no surprise that TV ratings have dipped. Everyone knows that sequels rarely do better than the original, but the 2016 season isn’t even a sequel so far. Sequels at least tweak the plot a bit. This is a replay. A re-run. TV viewers hate re-runs.
And now is the time for the mandatory “it’s still early in the season” disclaimer. That’s usually to insulate the author from criticism if a team he writes off early in season turns it around. So let it be known that yours truly is not counting out the Cleveland Browns. But in this case, pointing out that there are 14 games to go is a statement of hope. It’s still early in the season: things can get better!
The 2016 season can have an identity of its own and it will hopefully start as soon as Thursday. Four rookie quarterbacks – Wentz, Dak Prescott, Cody Kessler and Jacoby Brissett – are slated to start in week 3. Maybe one of them can break out and give football fans something we haven’t seen before. Oakland could feasibly fix its pass defense in time to give Denver a run in AFC West. Goff could come off the bench, quiet the doubters and direct a Rams offense worthy of the defense with which it shares a uniform. And the Jaguars could follow the model of this year’s Penguins and Cavaliers, can their coach and then win a championship. No? OK, if you prefer something less outrageous: Rex Ryan could fire his entire staff save for his twin brother and then hole up in the Bills facility and refuse to leave, launching chicken bones with a catapult fashioned out of old lap bands at anyone who approaches the building. That’s as good a bet as anything else.
But something has to happen soon to make the 2016 NFL season feel like it’s not just 2015.2. Right? Please? No one wants to watch the same thing all over again. At least not anyone outside the Denver market.
