Two Teams That Could Exceed Expectations in 2019-20
Returning trios could help these teams prove the pollsters wrong
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Who will exceed expectations in 2019-20?
When the Mountain West poll was released earlier this week, there weren’t many surprises. The poll nearly mirrored the predictions made by our own writers, with only Nevada and Boise State swapped. And it makes sense. Five teams — Utah State, San Diego State, New Mexico, the Wolf Pack, and the Broncos — have seemingly separated themselves from the rest of the conference.
It makes sense. Utah State has rings from last year’s Mountain West season and returns its core, including reigning POY Sam Merrill and reigning DPOY Neemias Queta. Both players were chosen in the preseason voting to repeat as winners of their respective awards. SDSU and UNM both bring in scores of talent, largely from transfers, to add to already-talented rosters. Nevada is coming off three consecutive MWC regular season titles and has an experienced head coach in Steve Alford. Boise State was a huge disappointment last year, but with preseason All-MWC first-teamer Derrick Alston leading a very experienced group, the outlook is generally positive for Leon Rice’s club.
But keep in mind that the preseason poll was not very accurate last year. Utah State was picked to finish ninth, while New Mexico and Boise State were slotted in at numbers three and four, respectively. Predictions often go awry, no matter how much research gets done in the offseason.
With that in mind, here’s a look at who might rise above their station and exceed expectations in the 2019-20 season.
Fresno State
The Bulldogs were a 23-game winner last season under first-year head coach Justin Hutson, finishing third in the Mountain West with a 13-5 mark, despite being picked to finish fifth in the league in the preseason poll. It seems that the pollsters may not have learned their lesson, tabbing the team to finish sixth this time around.
Sure, the leading scorers from last year’s squad are gone. Braxton Huggins and Deshon Taylor were one of the highest-scoring backcourt tandems in the country last year. Obviously, their absence will be notable. But it also opens the door for three returning seniors to make their marks on the program.
Probably the most well-known of the trio is Nate Grimes. The big man averaged roughly 12 points and nine rebounds nightly last season, to go along with his 2.5 “stocks” (steals plus blocks). Those numbers should, at the very least, hold firm again this season. A slight uptick in scoring wouldn’t be a surprise either. And though he may not get the same attention for his defense as Neemias Queta, make no mistake: Grimes is one of the best interior defenders in the league.
While Grimes should remain a constant for the team, if the Bulldogs are going to replicate the success that they had last season, they will need their senior guards to step up. Noah Blackwell and New Williams got plenty of playing time last season, averaging 29 and 26 minutes per game, respectively. Blackwell dished out 3.6 assists per game with a 22.2% assist rate, both marks being good for second on the team behind Taylor. He also shot 41.5% on 130 three-point attempts, making him the team’s top returning deep threat.
Williams, for his part, took more threes last year, but struggled to find consistency with them. His 32.9% clip on 164 attempts needs to improve this year, especially considering that nearly three-quarters of his shots came from beyond the arc. His relative inefficiency from distance was easy to sweep under the rug while Huggins, Taylor, and Blackwell were all knocking down threes. But the spotlight will be more firmly affixed to Williams this year, so his shooting could be the bellwether for how Fresno State’s season goes.
There’s a reason that Fresno State was picked to finish sixth this year. Questions about depth and how the team moves on from Taylor and Huggins are well-founded. But considering the job that Hutson did last season — which earned him the Joe B. Hall Coach of the Year award — it’s far too early to write them off. Just look how last year went.
Air Force
The Falcons aren’t going to win the league, but they are probably better than their eighth-place position in the preseason poll would suggest. Dave Pilipovich guided this team to a sixth-place finish last year after being tabbed as the conference’s tenth-best team in the 2018-19 preseason voting. So, this team is used to proving their doubters wrong.
It certainly helps that Air Force is returning nearly everybody from last year’s team. Lavelle Scottie was selected to be in the All-MWC preseason team after leading the Falcons with over 15 points per game last year. Scottie has some ability to shoot from downtown but is much better served when he brings the ball inside. He is one of the league’s best mid-range shooters and can also score with ease at the rim. He’ll need to do both in order to help carry the team back toward the top half of the league standings.
Scottie will get plenty of help from teammate Ryan Swan, who was second on the team in scoring last year and was the Falcons’ top rebounder. Swan was a much more efficient shooter from long range, knocking down just three fewer deep shots than Scottie, while attempting thirty fewer. Swan spent more time on the interior, with nearly half of his shot attempts coming at the rim. On a team that lacks elite size, he has shown a willingness to bang around inside. He’ll need to continue doing that for this team to compete down low against the scores of talented big men in the Mountain West.
Another bright spot for the team last year was freshman point guard AJ Walker. In his first year with the Falcons, Walker started 22 games, played over 26 minutes nightly, led the team in assists, and shot 40% from three-point range. Not too shabby. One area for improvement, though, is in the mid-range game. Nearly a third of Walker’s shots fell into this category last year, but he shot just 32.9% on these attempts. He’s not exactly an elite finisher at the rim, either, converting just over half of those shots. If this team is going to outplay its expectations, Walker must either get more efficient on his two-pointers or settle into more of a deep-threat role.
Again, this team outplayed its second-to-last prediction from last season’s preseason poll. With almost everyone back this year, including one of the league’s top players in Lavelle Scottie, it’s quite reasonable to expect that they will be able to do it again in 2019-20.
OUTLOOK
Neither of these teams should be considered threats to win the league and, truthfully, neither has a very realistic shot at making the NCAA Tournament. But these teams have considerable talent at the top of their rosters and shouldn’t be overlooked completely.
Both of these squads were better than expected last year, partially because teams that were picked ahead of them in the preseason polls — namely New Mexico and Boise State — struggled mightily. If Fresno State and Air Force can once again get a little lucky with other teams stumbling, it won’t be a surprise to see both of these schools exceed expectations again this season.
Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.
