Despite record runs to new all-time highs during October 2025, US stock indexes have been overshadowed by markets in the commodity complex.
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Yes, the US president has said a lot about the US beef industry, and USDA is helping hime where it can, but the market remains fundamentally bullish.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. Based on the Law of Supply and Demand, the argument could be made the US soybean market is changing. Time will tell.
As we head toward Halloween night (Friday, October 31), a couple questions will linger as the Trick or Treaters come around and the weekend arrives. It has been an thrilling month, to say the least. To shed some light on just how much has happened, news US stock indexes soaring to new all-time highs has flown under, or maybe over, the radar undetected and unmentioned for most of the month. Some of this is seasonal, though the S&P 500 ($INX) gaining roughly 3% during October 2025, in line with its 5-year and 30-year seasonal tendencies. With that out of the way, let’s address these key commodity complex questions.
Is the US beef/cattle industry bearish? We know the US president said it was going to be, and USDA has seemingly done everything in its power to make it so (e.g. unbelievable changes in reported boxed beef prices), but for now prices at the counter remain high. I had the opportunity to check on some beef prices this week[i], and let’s just say I’d have to redo my mortgage if I wanted to load the freezer for winter[ii]. I could run a long list of what I found, but to summarize, a pound of beef stew meat, a cut you have to stew (literally) for hours so it gets tender enough to eat, was $10.50 per pound. On the other end of the scale, filet mignon was $35+ per pound.
But are cattle markets bearish? Let’s take a look at the issue from both a technical and fundamental point of view:
- Technically, based on the continuous long-term monthly chart for the nearby futures contract (not my favorite chart to study), the answer is a definite Maybe. As of this writing, the spot month October contract (LEV25) has not completed a bearish reversal pattern but could complete a bearish outside month if it finishes October priced below the September settlement of $231.85. Heading into Friday’s session, October live cattle are priced at $235.275.
- Fundamentally, the answer is no, with an asterisk. Futures spreads for both live cattle and feeder cattle are running stronger than previous 5-year high weekly closes. Historically this has told us commercial traders continue to push nearby prices to source supplies to meet demand. However, a friend in the cattle industry raised an important sub-question, “Can we believe what we see in futures spreads these days?” This can be asked about near every aspect of every market as the month comes to an end. I don’t know the answer. But I do know the imaginary flood of beef coming from Argentina isn’t going to happen, or if it does, it won’t make much of a difference, while cattle coming into the US from Mexico remain locked up like children at the border. The deciding factor will be US consumer demand. How long will it continue to stay strong with current[iii] prices?
Is the US soybean market/industry now bullish? The hullabaloo surrounding this week’s meeting between the US president and China’s President Xi was familiar to those of us who’ve been watching markets for a while. We’ve heard all the post-report comments from the US side before, with the bottom line being nothing has changed regarding demand for US soybeans. Sure, China is supposed to buy 12 million metric tons the first year, then 25 mmt the three following years, but to put this in perspective the 2024-2025 marketing year saw China buy 22.5 mmt of US soybeans. The funniest thing that came out of the meeting was the US president immediately calling for the military to start nuclear testing again to keep up with other countries, most notably Russia and China. Radioactive soybeans anyone? Maybe radioactive soybean meal fed to US cattle will make Super Beef, brought to you from the mind who wanted to nuke a hurricane. But I digress.
- Technically, yes, with another asterisk. The National Soybean Index ($CNSI), the national average cash price, has jumped to a new 4-month high during October, taking out the previous mark of $10.1769 from June. However, this past May saw the Index hit a high of $10.2540, with the Index sitting at $10.2523 heading into Friday’s session. The Teucrium SOYB fund has also hit a new 4-month high this month but is again below its previous peak of $23.30 from September 2024. SOYB settled Thursday priced at $22.97.
- Fundamentally, while my argument has long been “no”, the key reads on real market supply and demand are leaning toward “maybe”. Starting again with the National Soybean Index, Thursday’s price of $10.2523 put it in the upper 41% of its price distribution range based on weekly closes only back through 2016. At the end of September, the Index was priced at $9.2034, the lower 35% of its range. Based on the economic law of Supply and Demand we can make the argument quantities demanded have increased this month in relation to quantities available. This isn’t overly surprising as the world’s largest buyer – China – has likely been covering some needed secondary supplies while the US government is shut down. Longer-term, soybean futures spreads have seen a dramatic decrease in calculated full commercial carry covered, with the sub-question again being if we can believe what we see in futures spreads given strong algorithm buying in futures based on headlines.
[i] A fun fact, our local liquor super mart, a former Toys ‘R Us store, has rented out a section in the back to a small, local meat processor. On Fridays, when free samples of liquor are available, it makes shopping for beef easier.
[ii] Also, at the front of the store there were some local produced baked goods, with a loaf of sourdough bread priced at $15. I passed on this as well.
[iii] My apologies Tony D.
