It is often the Derby which revolves around a short-priced favourite and the Oaks which offers punters a chance to dig deeper into the half-chances and possibilities in a lightly raced field. But not this year, when the normal order is reversed and Minding, the 1,000 Guineas winner and odds-on favourite, is the only place to start when backers weigh up the first Epsom Classic.
Many will stop there, too. On all known form, Minding is the best filly in the field by a significant margin: 9lb clear of Turret Rocks according to official ratings, and no less than 13lb in front of her field on Timeform’s figures. She will be ridden by Ryan Moore, is a daughter of Galileo, and Aidan O’Brien, her trainer, has won the race five times before. It is, on the face of it, a strong case. Had the bank holiday weather continued all week, it could well have been overwhelming.
The rain at Epsom over the last couple of days has shifted the balance and there are now solid arguments against Minding at a price that has, so far, remained impervious to the changing conditions. The official going at Epsom is soft, good-to-soft in places and while there is little or no rain forecast before Friday’s race, Minding dipped well below her best form when she was narrowly beaten on soft ground in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh last month.
Minding had excuses other than the easy ground, as she was a last-minute deputy for her stable companion Ballydoyle and also struck her head leaving the stalls, injuring a sinus in the process. A tough race on soft ground was far from ideal just 12 days before the Oaks, however. With lingering doubts too about the distaff side of her pedigree – Lillie Langtry, her dam, was a Group One winner but only at a mile – a top price of even-money looks thin.
Minding’s defeat at The Curragh has also strengthened the opposition, with Skiffle, an impressive winner at Goodwood last time, added to the field at the supplementary stage not least because the favourite suddenly appeared more vulnerable. Skiffle should offer stern resistance but is taking a big step up in class and still has only two races behind her, both of which were last month.
Turret Rocks (4.30), by contrast, is used to mixing it with the best, having raced only in Group company since a winning debut in a maiden last June. She was one-and-a-quarter lengths behind Ballydoyle in the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day, and stayed on to finish sixth in the 1,000 Guineas, about six-and-a-half lengths behind Minding.
On the face of it that is a significant deficit to overcome but Jim Bolger admitted at Epsom’s Breakfast With The Stars last week he had left her “a bit short” before the Newmarket Classic and her juvenile form, including a victory in the May Hill Stakes, suggests she will be a middle-distance filly this season.
Turret Rocks is nothing like the price of Bolger’s Jet Ski Lady, who had Shadayid, the Guineas winner, back in third when she took the 1991 Oaks at 50-1 but at around 7-1, a point-and-a-half bigger than Skiffle, she is the obvious value in the market.
Punters looking for a real upset may be tempted by the 25-1 about Diamonds Pour Moi, third home in the Cheshire Oaks. Given her inexperience, she looked like the best prospect in the field on the Roodee, where Somehow, an 8-1 chance for Friday’s Classic, was just a length in front. Ralph Beckett, her trainer, underlined his touch with Classic fillies when Simple Verse took the St Leger last season and has saddled two Oaks winners in the past eight years.
