For those wondering where the Peter Dutton story came from – it sparked instant commentary of a leak from either Labor or Malcolm Turnbull’s office, Hugh Riminton has just taken to Twitter to give “full credit to dogged researcher Kate Doak”.
So now you know.
And that’s where we will leave it for now.
The phones will be running hot tonight and tomorrow morning in the lead-up to tomorrow’s party room meeting. That’s where the new policy will get looked over by those who have torpedoed the Neg. The states still have to weigh in, so there is no rush for the government to put this legislation through the House.
Turnbull may have headed off the latest front on attack, but as one MP pointed out to me today “the first loud rumblings are a warning shot, which is almost always followed by the actual offensive”.
Shorter version – this ain’t over yet.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, Turnbull has shown his belly to the party room and I don’t think anyone in this building expects them to walk away now.
Labor is very content to let this play out. It feels like it has its house in order and has been preparing for the general election all year. Preselections are at the tail end, and the party is all but good to go.
Not that anyone is talking election as yet. But if we see a switch-up of leaders, there won’t be one too far away.
Tomorrow also marks one week since the (now we know premature) “we got it through the party room” victory press conference.
Time flies, huh?
We should have an answer on company tax tomorrow one way or the other but the main focus will be on the party room meeting and what comes out of that.
Stay. Tuned.
Mike Bowers will be back on deck tomorrow and the Guardian brains’ trust will be here at the crack of dawn, chasing whatever it brings.
A big thank you to them all for helping me through today, and keeping me abreast of the developments – it has been a pretty fast moving beast today.
And of course, as always, to you for reading and for letting us know your thoughts. Makes sure you switch off and get some rest tonight – tomorrow is going to be another big day. We’ll be back bright and early, so in the meantime – take care of you.
Updated
Business Council lashes energy policy change
It is safe to say the Business Council, which backed the government on its previous Neg policy, even lobbying on its behalf to try and get MPs across the line, is pissed at this latest development.
From Jennifer Westacott:
“We support lower prices but this will not be achieved by ad hoc and extreme intervention in the electricity market which brings new risks, unintended consequences and has never worked before,” she said in a statement.
“While we understand the need to prioritise affordability, greater intervention and more regulation – including forced divestment which even the ACCC rejected as an ‘extreme measure’ – is not the answer.
“It is a band-aid solution that will at best provide short-term relief.
“By exacerbating sovereign risk and interfering in market outcomes, the proposals will discourage investment in urgently needed dispatchable power with serious consequences for prices and reliability down the track.
“The measures announced today do not go to the heart of the problem that must be fixed and that the Neg was designed to address.
“The Neg was the first proposal that sought to integrate energy and climate change policy, providing a clear signal to business and industry about how emissions will be treated in this country and most importantly brought reliability to the front and centre of energy policy.
“Over recent months the prospect of greater policy stability has seen a downward trend in wholesale prices. Without locking-in this overarching framework, investment uncertainty will continue to be unresolved and the national electricity market will remain unfit-for-purpose.
“Over the past decade governments of both persuasions, federal and state, have created this mess – through failed attempts at carbon pricing, ill-conceived green schemes, a renewable energy target that forced out baseload supply, gold plating of energy infrastructure and irresponsible moratoriums on gas exploration by some states.
“Time and time again business has been willing to engage in constructive policy design but short-term political gain has always prevailed.
“Once again, we call on all political parties to work together to deliver a workable and durable energy and climate change policy that will drive investment and improve certainty.
“This must include working constructively with the business community to ensure there are no unintended consequences from today’s announcement.
“Unfortunately, the cost of continued ad hoc intervention in the electricity market will ultimately be borne by Australian households, businesses and workers.”
Updated
The Liberal party will hold a party room meeting tomorrow, where the latest energy policy will be discussed.
From the word today, it looks like Malcolm Turnbull has bent enough and given the conservative faction what they wanted, buying him a little more time.
But expect the next big fight, at least from what I am hearing, to be on the Paris agreement and Tony Abbott’s ongoing demand that Australia follow the US and pull out of it.
You heard Eric Abetz talk about that a little earlier today. It’s enough of an issue that those who want Turnbull gone can keep turning to it to keep the tensions rolling on.
Paris is about to become something we hear conservative MPs tell us their “base” are very concerned about.
Updated
Tanya & I lead a united team that is working hard to deliver a fair go. While the Liberals are fighting amongst themselves, we're focused on things that matter to you: reversing Turnbull’s cuts to schools, hospitals & penalty rates & stopping his $17 billion handout to the banks pic.twitter.com/L0M3bSLyVm
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) August 20, 2018
Peter Dutton's eligibility to sit in the parliament questioned
Hugh Riminton from Network Ten is reporting Peter Dutton could have section 44 issues, due to pecuniary interests over his wife’s childcare centres.
The problem, Riminton says, could be around changes the government made to the childcare subsidy – in that childcare centres now receive a benefit from the government.
Dutton’s legal advice is that he is OK.
But it is all a moot point – the parliament has to refer someone to the high court for it to be tested. And the government, while it may not have the numbers to get its own policy through the House of Representatives at the moment, certainly has the numbers, by one, to block any move to refer Dutton to the court.
Updated
Barry O’Sullivan just tried to have his anti-abortion motion put through the Senate - it was rejected.
But that has delayed the death notice for the company tax cut policy.
Those who know the Senate much better than I say not to expect anything until later tonight
Michael McCormack in - How to lose government policy in 10 minutes:
Deputy PM @M_McCormackMP claims Australia is ‘more than meeting’ the Paris Agreement emissions reduction target of 26%.
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) August 20, 2018
‘It’s based on the data that is produced by those people who measure emissions.’
MORE: https://t.co/PjVH6AcKVB #speers pic.twitter.com/wtBlBMmZbS
Deputy PM @M_McCormackMP on legislating an emissions reductions target: No we’re not legislating it … We don’t need to.
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) August 20, 2018
MORE: https://t.co/GdbCnxKRUn #speers pic.twitter.com/XzwfmXym2b
Someone might need to call the coroner, because we have all just witnessed a death in this interview between David Speers and Michael McCormack.
OMG @David_Speers please stop https://t.co/vltusigxdT #auspol
— Bevan Shields (@BevanShields) August 20, 2018
Michael McCormack says the Neg is “government policy at the time” but it doesn’t have the numbers, and maybe sometime in the future, if the government has a buffer of 10, maybe it can try again.
Or something.
He supports the Paris Agreement. But it doesn’t matter, because the emissions reduction is not going to be legislated.
It’s all hypothetical.
ALL OF IT.
The Australian council of social service (Acoss) has slammed the Turnbull government’s Neg backdown, saying the notion that Australians must choose between lower energy price and action on global warming is “misleading and short-sighted”.
ACOSS has repeatedly called for measures to reduce energy bills for low-income Australians.
But its chief executive, Cassandra Goldie, said the lowest-paid would also bear the brunt of Australia’s failure to act on climate change.
“Failure to tackle climate change will also come at a cost, especially for people on low income who are least able to cope, adapt and recover,” Goldie said.
“People on low incomes want affordable energy and to limit dangerous climate change. We can and must do both.”
Michael McCormack is now doing his best to explain why cutting emissions doesn’t need to be legislated on Sky News.
It’s not great.
He can’t explain how Australia will meet the 26% cut, without the Neg.
“From everything I’ve read...” he says, before trying to jump to what Labor wants to do. (He’s cut off).
This is just giving me flashbacks to that time Sarah Palin couldn’t name any of the newspapers she read, when questioned:
“Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years.”
McCormack has read the papers, and the media reports and the other things which have been put in front of him and that’s how he knows.
He is now falling back on the ole ‘if you walk down the street in Wagga Wagga’, where no one is talking about emissions reductions or the Paris Agreement.
I am not sure who thought it was a great idea to have McCormack explain this on national TV, but they might want to think about whether or not strategy is actually their strength.
Well then, that’s that decided:
RESULTS AT 3.30pm (3,500 votes)
— Sydney Live (@SydneyLive2GB) August 20, 2018
Who should lead the Liberal Party?
MALCOLM TURNBULL – 5%
PETER DUTTON – 32%
JULIE BISHOP – 2%
TONY ABBOTT – 60%
SCOTT MORRISON – 1%
Vote in the 2GB poll here: https://t.co/tl8BGSgs2Y
Over in the Senate (I know, we haven’t given it much thought today either) the government was going through the motions of attempting to have its company tax cuts plan passed (there is more chance of Tony Abbott admitting he believes we should stay in the Paris agreement, than that happening).
Pauline Hanson spoke on the bill, which she opposes, saying it would cost the Australian people “$224bn in revenue”.
She then had a few things to say in response to criticism of her by Brian Burston, whom she removed from One Nation in June when they fell out over the tax cuts.
Senator Burston was taken out of the position of whip because he was not doing the job and not reporting back. I remember clearly that I was down here to ask a question and didn’t know whether I had the call and Peter Georgiou rang me on the phone and asked whether I had it and I said, ‘I don’t know.’ That’s why Senator Burston was taken out of the position of whip. And I asked him whether Peter Georgiou would be all right as whip, and he said, ‘Yeah, that’s fine by me.’
Updated
Business chief lashes Coalition
James Pearson, the chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is clearly fed up.
He just held a press conference in Parliament House to have a spray at the Coalition, and Labor, for the policy disarray in Canberra.
He said the business community wanted the Neg because it would have provided policy certainty, and it would have worked well with key recommendations in the ACCC’s report on electricity prices.
There’s no doubt that the national energy guarantee has run into stormy seas over the last week or so, but it remains as compelling a proposition with the backing of the business community today as it did last week. All that’s changed is that we’ve seen an outbreak of short-term political opportunism which runs the risk of scuppering vital, long-term policy.
That’s why the business community, right across the country, has been unified in its call for all parties to back the national energy guarantee, and we repeat that call today.
He also doubled back to criticise Labor for its opposition to the government’s company tax cuts, and for state Labor government’s for playing politics on the Neg.
Updated
The ACT has also responded to the latest incarnation of the Neg (RIP the Neg)
ACT minister for climate change Shane Rattenbury says the federal government “has now completely capitulated on emissions and climate change, and abandoned the Paris climate change commitments” and that “consumers will continue to pay for the federal government’s policy chaos.”
He feared that the government’s dumping of the Neg would be “warped into expensive subsidies for polluting, uneconomical coal – guided as Turnbull is by extreme views on coal and climate change”.
Updated
Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop has spoken to 2GB Radio - and while she’s given support to Malcolm Turnbull she has not ruled out running for leader in the event of a spill.
She said:
I certainly believe that Malcolm Turnbull will lead us to the next election, he has my support as leader and I believe he has the vast majority of the party room behind him in supporting his leadership. Some people are complaining about this energy policy but I believe the three announcements today in response to the ACCC address their concerns. He’s got a strong record of achievement – record jobs creation.
Asked if there were a leadership ballot if she would put her own name forward, Bishop replied:
“I am elected deputy by the members of the party room, so I’m not appointed some leader’s deputy, I’m appointed deputy by the party room and I’m getting on with my job as the member for Curtin, the foreign minister and the elected deputy leader.
When asked if she’d serve as deputy to Peter Dutton, Bishop reiterated support for Turnbull but didn’t rule it out.
Updated
Just when we thought the day couldn’t get any worse, we just remembered the bad show*, with George Christensen, Pauline Hanson, Bob Katter, Larissa Waters and Cathy O’Toole as the panel is on next week.
*phew. An earlier version of this post said it was tonight, but it is actually next Monday night. Which makes more sense, as I was wondering how they were going to get back in time for it, and also gives us another week to prepare.
Updated
Just wondering if anyone has seen Malcolm Turnbull’s leather jacket around lately? It may be getting a call up as he seeks to reboot his popular credentials.
Updated
Julie Bishop is on 2GB saying “we have seen this movie before”.
Which is true. Leadership challenge: It’s On, Leadership Challenge II: Ruddmentum Returns and Leadership Challenge III: Knight and Dames.
Mike Bowers has been on special assignment today, so no Bower’s pics - here is how the AAP folk saw QT:
Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is the latest Labor leader to question what is happening with the energy policy, given that the states have parts they have to enact as well.
Queensland was pretty much on board with the Neg. And now?
“I have always said we need certainty and stability for families when it comes to a national framework on electricity,” Palaszczuk said, on her way into her caucus meeting.
“I believe I was one of the first people that said he needed to get endorsement from his party room. That has not occurred and what we are seeing today is energy policy in free fall, absolute free fall. I couldn’t even tell you what their policy is.”
Updated
A little bit more from Gary Spence - he says he has not sent “any emails to anybody” (following reports he had been urging the Queensland LNP MPs - all 21 of them - to back Peter Dutton over Malcolm Turnbull)
“It is not a matter for me to [make] public comments,” he said.
That should fix it Gary!
.@LilyDAmbrosioMP on today's events: "I'm not sure Malcolm Turnbull knows what the NEG is anymore, or if it still exists" @AmyRemeikis #auspol #NEG
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) August 20, 2018
Back in Queensland, LNP president Gary Spence has been questioned on what he has been saying to MPs - and whether he has been telling the Queenslanders to withdraw their support for Turnbull (he was doorstopped by Queensland journalists as he left the LNP party room meeting – Queensland parliament meets tomorrow)
“You are asking me to talk about private conversations with MPs. A party president has private conversations with members of parliament all the time,” he said. “I think everything that needs to be said has been said today . I haven’t got anything further to add.”
As for whether Peter Dutton would make a better prime minister:
“Everybody has their own view. My view is my view. The MPs and Senators choose the leader.”
Updated
Bill Shorten asks Malcolm Turnbull why Australians should wait for the government to become united in order to get lower power prices.
Turnbull replies:
... Despite many people’s questioning whether we would be able to deliver in this parliament, we have delivered one massive reform after another. The largest personal income tax cuts in 20 years. We have delivered lower taxes for small and medium family businesses. We have delivered billions of dollars going into Medicare and health and the PBS. We have record spending on infrastructure, and Mr Speaker we have been able to do what the leader of the opposition said would be unthinkable, we actually stood up for Australian workers and we got the Trans-Pacific partnership agreed. Mr Speaker, my government has delivered one big reform after another, again and again. It has been said that we could not get legislation through the Senate, again it has been said we have a small minority in the house, and of course Mr Speaker the numbers are what they are, but we have delivered, and the runs on the board, and they are of record jobs growth last year, 3.1% GDP growth, energy prices starting to turn in the right direction, downwards. And Mr Speaker, tax cuts for hard-working middle income Australians this year voted against by the Labor party.”
A list of achievements – but what do you think people are going to remember?
Updated
Probably time to trot this gem out again:
WHO IS IT, WHICH ONE IS IT, WHO IS THE PRIME MINISTER?
— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) September 17, 2015
Labor MP Jenny Macklin during #wherestony on Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/uJYOgZH1fz
Updated
Bill Shorten to Malcolm Turnbull:
I refer to thePrime Minister’s answer in which he said that his government would not introduce legislation unless it could be carried on its own numbers. Given that the Prime Minister has a majority of one, doesn’t every member of his backbench, including the former Prime Minister, now have the same power over government policy as the Prime Minister himself?
Turnbull:
“It is self-evident that in the House of Representatives with a government with a majority of one, individual members who choose not to vote in accordance with the decisions of the majority of the party room, have the ability to prevent legislation being carried. That is the reality, the practical reality of the situation. And that is why, since the party meeting last week, we have been engaging with members to discuss their concerns and ensure that we can deliver the support for the government’s policies on the floor of the house.”
So while Julia Gillard managed to pass legislation through negotiating with the crossbench, Malcolm Turnbull can not negotiate with his own party room.
There are not a lot of other take aways from today.
John McVeigh gives the next dixer on drought, talking about everything the government is doing - except for a long-term responsible climate change plan, of course.
Bill Shorten to Malcolm Turnbull:
Given his last answer, can apply minister confirmed that he is unwilling to talk to Labor about energy price legislation until he has the consent of the member for Warringah?
Turnbull:
On his question, his invitation to engage in bipartisanship is not very persuasive. The honorable member will understand that when dealing with issues of this kind, I will continue to confer with my colleagues.
We move on to Michael Keenan talking about the drought.
Updated
Tony Burke asks Malcolm Turnbull if each Coalition backbencher now has a veto over whether this legislation will be introduced. Turnbull replies:
The honorable member is not accurately reflecting the answer that I gave, but the fact is as I said this morning, and I said earlier, we seek to ensure that legislation that we introduce has the support of sufficient of our party room to enable it to be carried on our own numbers.
Turnbull may as well revert to one word answers at this stage
Updated
David Littleproud is again talking about the drought, this time in a dixer, and the tough conditions farmers are going through (all of Queensland is in drought, while most of NSW is also suffering, as well as parts of Victoria and WA) and again, this comes as the government removes emissions reductions from its energy legislation.
As Littleproud delivers his latest answer, bushfires continue to burn out of control. In winter. In August.
And meanwhile, the government is once again embracing coal.
The Neg (RIP) is also a topic of conversation in the other place, where Mathias Cormann is being even more succinct than usual.
Penny Wong: Less than a week ago, the prime minister said emissions reduction targets in his energy policy would be legislated. What happened?
Mathias Cormann: What happened is that clearly right now there is not the sufficient support for that particular part of the policy through the House of Representatives
Updated
I have never seen Malcolm Turnbull answer questions so succinctly. He gets three minutes a question and he is barely taking up one at the moment.
Bill Shorten to Malcolm Turnbull:
I refer to the prime minister’s last answer. Is the prime minister’s position that parliament will only be allowed to see the legislation if we agree to vote for it before we have seen it?
Turnbull:
I explained the circumstances in my press conference this morning. It is perfectly straightforward, we have a majority of one in this house, we need to have almost all of our party room to support legislation for the government to carry it on its own numbers. With respect to this matter, we are not in a position at this stage. We continue talking to our colleagues.
Updated
Everyone clear now?
It’s the legislative version of “whinge and win”.
Updated
The latest press release on energy policy from Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg has been released:
The Turnbull Government has today announced a package of measures to put downward pressure on electricity prices and stop energy companies from gouging their customers.
We are backing the ACCC to drive lower electricity prices for households and small businesses.
According to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry released in July, the National Energy Market is not operating in the best interests of consumers, and reform is urgently needed.
The Government is implementing a number of key recommendations from the ACCC inquiry.
The ACCC and the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) will be directed to set a default price for households and small to medium-sized businesses; a price that will deliver genuine savings to customers.
This will replace the current standing offer in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and South East Queensland - jurisdictions where prices are not regulated.
The ACCC found the significant gap between standing offer prices and market offer prices has become excessive and consumers who have not sought a better deal are being ripped off.
A default offer will protect consumers from being exploited, while still allowing for the benefits of retail competition. This measure will prevent retailers from exploiting consumers and small business with inflated standing offers.
Under our plan, the AER would be given the power to set the maximum price for the default market offer in each region. Customers on high-priced standing offers will see their electricity price decrease as they move to a lower default market offer.
The ACCC estimates that for average customers on an inflated standing offer, the savings for residential customers from moving to the new default offer could range between $183 and $416.
We also think that small businesses have the right to the same protections and support. The ACCC estimates that savings for the average small to medium sized business on a standing offer could range between $561 and $1457.
The Government will also act to simplify the confusing array of offers that are currently on the market by requiring retailers to use the new default rate as a reference point for all advertised discounts. This will give customers more clarity when they compare retailers and offers and help ensure they get the best deal.
Limits will also be placed on the penalties customers can face when they don’t pay their bills on time and lose their discounts.
The Government will seek initially to work with the states and territories on this reform. If the states do not agree, we will implement the offer through Commonwealth law. We expect the new default offer to apply from July 2019 at the latest.
In addition, the Treasurer will direct the ACCC to hold an inquiry into prices, profits and margins in the National Electricity Market. The inquiry will run until 2025 and include monitoring of retail prices and margins, wholesale bids and conduct and contract market liquidity.
The ACCC will prepare ongoing reports (at least six-monthly) and identify any cases where outcomes are unacceptable. Businesses will have the opportunity to explain and rectify issues raised by the ACCC. Where issues are not resolved, the ACCC will have the power to recommend a proportional and targeted response for the Treasurer’s determination.
The range of enforcement remedies and responses that could be applied if the ACCC identifies problems would include:
- A public warning notice issued by the Treasurer or ACCC;
- A court enforceable undertaking, as currently used by the ACCC in other contexts;
- Converting the default market offer into a binding cap price;
- Tightening guidelines for how the AER sets the default market offer to further drive down the default electricity price;
- Fines and other financial penalties;
- Extending market making obligations beyond South Australia, which is a form of structural separation; and
- Ordering divestiture of assets or parts of an energy business (as a last resort).
The Government will also be accepting the ACCC’s recommendation to implement a program to underwrite new, stable, low-cost generation for commercial and industrial customers. This program will be technology neutral, as recommended by the ACCC.
In addition, the Government will accept the ACCC’s recommendations to:
- Limit market power by placing a cap on the share of generation any single market participant can own or control, excluding investment in new capacity and noting the ACCC’s recommended 20 per cent cap;
- Establish a mandatory code of conduct for energy comparator websites to ensure they focus on benefits to consumers, not the commissions they receive from energy companies;
- Establish greater transparency in the wholesale electricity market and provide additional powers for the AER address market manipulation in the wholesale market.
Katharine Murphy on the absolute shit storm we are witnessing (shitstorm was actually trending in Sydney Twitter today. It is probably the most apt term)
Malcolm Turnbull did two things on Monday.
Turnbull walked into the blue room of Parliament House and told reporters he could not carry forward his signature energy policy to the parliament because he lacked the requisite internal support to deliver it.
The prime minister of Australia declared himself a hostage of a group of wreckers from the Liberal party’s conservative wing. That’s the first thing he did. He showed his opponents and the voters his weakness. He called a press conference to confirm his own capitulation.
In the process of declaring himself their captive, the prime minister willingly unveiled Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton’s energy policy for them. That was the second thing he did. If we were at a tennis tournament, the umpire would be declaring game, set and match.
The conservative wreckers have pursued the following objectives over recent weeks: kill the national energy guarantee, train the government’s focus on reducing power prices through whatever heavy-handed measures that takes, and construct a partisan fight with Labor at the next federal election.
Read the whole piece here:
Updated
Bill Shorten to Malcolm Turnbull:
Will the government release the legislation he referred to in his last answer.
Turnbull:
The government will introduce the legislation when it is concluded that it has the support in the House of Representatives for it to be passed.”
Translation - after it has been through party room tomorrow and we are certain that we have the numbers, and Tony Abbott has no more wrecking to do, at this stage.
Peter Dutton with his daily dose of border protection, almost mentions Labor making “policy on the run”, which the opposition enjoys very much, given the number of gaffaws from that direction.
Mark Butler to Malcolm Turnbull:
“The prime minister has said today he would not be introducing legislation on his policy until he is confident he can pass the house. Does that legislation exist?”
“Yes, yes it does,” Turnbull says, and sits down.
Updated
On Ged Kearney’s question to the “current prime minister” (see blog post before last), Tony Smith had this to say:
I listened to the member for Batman and her question at the beginning had an inclusion, or a lead in, with respect to the question to the prime minister. I’m going to make it very clear having reflected through the answer that I’m not going to allow that to occur. If members are incapable of simply asking the question to the prime minister or minister without adding in any other words, I’m going to sit them down, and I won’t be offering a chance to rephrase the question”
So that is a no to questions for the “current” PM then.
Updated
A new week and Christopher Pyne has written a dixer for himself which doesn’t involve sledging unions, showing where every modicum of self control in the Liberal party has gone lately (hint - it’s not in the party room)
Updated
Ged Kearney with a question for the “current prime minister”.
Can the prime minister confirm that he has had five different signature energy policies, including two just today? He is planning on dumping his signature business handout, and his government is completely paralysed by infighting and chaos. Isn’t it the case that Australians are paying the price for the circus that this government and its policies have become?
Josh Frydenberg takes this one:
“She should have welcomed today’s announcements because they will lower power prices,” he says. Continuing the “driving power prices down” line.
“At the end of the day, at the end of the day, we know what is going on over there,” Frydenberg says.
The problem is, we all know what is going on, full stop.
Updated
It is going to be very, very hard for Malcolm Turnbull to escape this:
Turnbull says the dumping of his energy policy followed "consultation" ... more like political panic as he moves further and further to the lunar right #auspol #qt
— Wayne Swan (@SwannyQLD) August 20, 2018
Mark Butler to Malcolm Turnbull: (I skipped over a dixer where Josh Frydenberg was talking about Labor’s “mixed messages” because there is only so much irony one blog can take)
Over the past two years, the prime minister has asked Labor to support an emissions scheme, a clean energy target, the guarantee that went to the party room last Tuesday, another version announced on Saturday and another policy four hours ago. Which of these policies does the government currently support? Aren’t Australians paying the price of five years of this government focusing on itself in several policies to bring down power prices for Australian households?
Turnbull does his best to claim that the problem is Labor’s and its lack of policy direction, but judging by the faces of those behind him, not even the government can pretend to agree with that today.
We move on to Julie Bishop – which is the first time we have heard or seen Turnbull’s deputy all day.
Updated
Oh goody.
We have reached the “I know you are, you said you are, but what am I?” part of today.
Bill Shorten to Malcolm Turnbull:
“The prime minister has passionately advocated the three things in his public life. The republic, climate change and his big business tax cuts. Given the prime minister has abandoned the republic, abandoned action on climate change, will he now rule out abandoning his centrepiece big business tax cut or is it the case that whenever it comes to a choice between his principles and his job, this prime minister stands for nothing at all?”
Turnbull:
“The Labor party stands for higher personal income taxes, higher business and company taxes, posing multinational tax avoidance, placing greater childcare support for families, opposing funding the NDIS, wanting to keep secret and corrupting payments between employers and unions and opposing restoring the rule of law to the construction sector. Mr Speaker, the reality is the Labor party does not have one policy that will encourage one business to invest $1 or hire one employee.
“Now, by contrast, what we have done is we have stood up for businesses and we have seen the strongest jobs growth last year … because we are supporting business, and we are standing up for hard-working Australian families and giving them at break this year and a longer term reform that will see 94% of Australians relieved from the curse of bracket creep paying no more than 32.5 cents on any extra dollar they earn.
“Mr Speaker, the honorable member talks about climate change. Well, we are taking real action on climate change, we are. [Labor laughs]
“What about the leader, the deputy prime minister mentions Snowy Hydro 2.0? That is the largest pumped hydro project in the southern hemisphere. We got it started, we have got it under way. Labor was able to deliver one policy after another that reduced the reliability of electricity networks and increase their cost. We are delivering the largest renewable energy project in Australia’s since Snowy Hydro 1.0. That is our commitment. Committed to a responsible approach to the environment, cheap electricity prices and a strong economy.”
Updated
In between question time and now, I had A LOT of chats with government MPs and Queensland campaign types, and they all seem to feel the pressure is off Malcolm Turnbull.
I received almost an hour of “changing prime ministers would be insanity” type rants. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Just that for now, the party is feeling like the solution would be worse than the symptoms.
Interestingly, most of those I just spoke to seem to think that heading into opposition might actually “help us get our shit together”.
“Labor was a mess, but they’ve been pretty united and focused for six years now – and I don’t think you would see them do what we’ve been doing. Maybe we need some time to reflect to sort that out for ourselves,” one said.
Updated
Michael McCormack: still looking for a QT personality.
Even after everything.
Which means – this is it. This, what he has landed on lately, is what we get from our deputy prime minister. Reading his answers like he’s addressing a year 9 debate team.
Updated
We take a step away from the Neg (RIP) and leadership for a moment for the crossbench question. Cathy McGowan has it today and it is on welfare:
“Australians want to know that the social safety net is there to catch and look after them as they engage with workforce or further study. It is not a punishment. Minister, will you support the establishment of this commission to ensure that people living on government payments have a dignified standard of living?”
Dan Tehan:
He starts by talking about the success of the government to get people off unemployment benefits and the cashless welfare card. He also talks about how the pension for couples has gone up by $150. But he doesn’t answer the question.
McGowan goes to get up and bring him up on a point of order, but points out that she believes “the answer has rambled to its end”.
The chamber laughs - it is a nice bit of levity in a pretty tense day in that place.
Tayna Plibersek to Malcolm Turnbull:
Is legislating the government’s energy policy and issues central to government policy? Is it of vital importance?
There are “ooooohhhhhs” from the chamber. I assume because it is an actual question.
Turnbull:
“What is vital is getting energy prices down. That is what Australians want us to do. I would have thought the deputy leader of the opposition would understand that we need to ensure that the rapid rise in energy prices way above the rate of inflation, has gone on for too long. We have taken strong measures to bring it down, it is starting to come down, and we have to do more. So, what we are doing is using the recommendations from the ACCC to ensure that we have the tools to make the big retailers, the big energy companies, serve their customers, and deliver for them. That is our permit it. Cheaper electricity.”
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Nola Marino has sent out a reminder to all Liberal party members about the party room meeting tomorrow. I kid you not. How on earth would ANYONE in the Liberal party forget about that?
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This is the second “alternative” policy dixer – looks like Christopher Pyne is repeating himself today.
Not even Scott Morrison seems himself today. Labor on the other hand, are having a great time.
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Malcolm Turnbull:
I have to hand it to the leader of the opposition. He was able to restrain his smirk into halfway through that question. I have never heard a less convincing advocate for bipartisanship than the leader of the opposition. Mr Speaker, he is all politics and no policy. The simple fact is, what we have got our measures that will bring down electricity prices by hundreds of dollars. Strong measures. Strong measures and measures that are working already. All Labor has is a ragbag of measures that have been proven to fail, unsustainable renewable targets, unnecessary renewable targets, unsustainable emissions abatement targets. All of that has demonstrated to put up higher prices, to put up higher prices and undermine our competitiveness. If Labor was serious about energy policy they would be supporting policies based on economics and engineering, that is what we are doing and that is why we are seeing lower prices and we have more to come.
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Bill Shorten to Malcolm Turnbull:
When will the prime minister provide Labor with a copy of the legislation for today’s version of its energy policy, and will the prime minister work with Labor on a constructive bipartisan basis to reduce pollution, increase renewables, and deliver lower power prices for Australian families?
Turnbull starts with a reference to Shorten’s grin.
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Question time begins
Not surprisingly, it is all on this morning’s announcement.
.@ShaneRattenbury “The NEG is dead. It was hailed as a policy to address the ‘trilemma’ of prices, reliability and emissions reduction. Instead, Federal energy policy is being determined by the worst, climate change denying elements of the Liberal party” #auspol #NEG
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) August 20, 2018
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David Littleproud is now talking about “drought-proof” Australia in the same press conference where the Nationals are celebrating the end of an emissions reduction target and talking about “coal, coal, coal”.
You cannot script this.
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The PMO has issued the press conference transcript from this morning.
Here is everything Malcolm Turnbull said before questions:
We are doing everything we can to bring your electricity bill down. Our priority is cheaper electricity.
“Now today, we’re going to announce a range of new measures that will drive down the cost of energy for Australian families and businesses, hundreds of dollars of savings, as I’ll come to in a moment.
“But first, let me say a few words about the national energy guarantee.
“Now it is clear that in the absence of bipartisan support, the legislation to move forward with the emissions component of the national energy guarantee will not be able to pass the House of Representatives. Now in politics you have to focus on what you can deliver and that’s what we’ve done and will continue to do.
“Now, while the policy, the legislation, has the clear support of the Coalition party room, as well as industry, experts, consumer groups – in fact I’ve never seen an energy policy that has broader support – in a parliament where there is just a one seat majority, the outstanding reservations of a number of our colleagues, combined with the absence of bipartisan support mean that as long as that remains the case we won’t be in a position to take that legislation forward. Now, where and when we believe there would be sufficient support in the House of Representatives, and obviously in our party room, to progress this component of the scheme we’ll bring it forward once again.
“Now, that in no way distracts from our primary focus, which is to bring power prices down.
“No single measure can achieve this. You’ve heard me say many times before, there’s no single reason why power prices have been so high and there’s no single solution. So that’s why we’re taking action right across the board, with retailers, distributors, generators.
“And together, our measures will deliver cheaper electricity.
“Now, I’ve asked the energy minister to talk with the states on the reliability guarantee. The national energy guarantee, as you know, was primarily designed as a response to the South Australian blackouts and the need to ensure that there was greater reliability or assured reliability in the energy market. That’s the most pressing issue and as the Energy Security Board has said, needs to be in place by July 2019. It’s not far away. Now, the absence – if that remains the case – of federal legislation on emissions intensity does not prevent the states from pressing on with the reliability guarantee. That in itself is also a very important tool to get power prices down.
“Now, let me turn now to the other measures we’re proceeding with.
“Power bills are one of the biggest cost-of-living pressures facing Australian families and indeed expenses facing Australian businesses. They’ve risen over the last decade by 56% above the rate of inflation. Rising electricity prices is causing families distress, which is why cheaper power has always been our number one priority when it comes to energy policy.
“Every measure we’ve taken in the past year has been to lower electricity prices for you; whether it has been making it easier to switch to a cheaper offer – remember we brought in all the retailers to ensure that they alerted people who were on the wrong plans to take up a better plan. We’ve ensured that gas companies make more gas available for Australians and lower prices, we are pursuing also with the national energy guarantee. Our measures are starting to work, with power prices falling for the first time in years in many parts of the nation. Now, that small relief was welcome, but we have to continue the work to drive down prices.
“Now in March last year, we asked the ACCC to investigate the energy market – a market we knew was not delivering for families and for businesses – and tell us what more we could do to lower prices. The report, which was 15 months in the preparation, was delivered to us last month. It confirmed what we knew, that the big energy companies were gaming the system to make huge profits – and you have seen those recently – at the expense of consumers. Indeed, that the energy market was no longer working in the interests of families or businesses big and small.
“Now the ACCC has given us a blueprint for new measures that would bring power prices down further. Some more radical than others, but all sensible and practicable.
“The treasurer and I have already indicated our support for several measures including the government effectively underwriting investment in new, competitive, dispatchable generation; lack of competition is a big problem in this market. By stepping in to help our big industrial and commercial customers make long contracts, we will ensure new generation gets financed and by getting more new generation finance, of course, we get access to more energy at lower costs – making the market work.
“So today, I’m announcing we’ll introduce a range of actions that will shift the balance of the electricity market back in favour of families and businesses.
“We’re going to stop the rampant price gouging by the big energy companies.
“We’ll shine a light on the hidden practices in the industry that drive up power prices and hold to account anyone who stands in the way of a better deal for Australian energy users.
“Now while this work was already under way, we’ve obviously listened to the concerns of our colleagues and our constituents, our communities, those on the frontline and we’ve listened to families concerned about their ability to pay their quarterly power bills and that’s why we’re accelerating this package of measures to ensure we can provide more relief to households.
“We’re adopting the ACCC’s proposal to establish a default market offer; a price expectation that will give consumers a clear picture of how much they should be paying for their electricity.
“For too long the energy companies have baffled consumers with confusing and complex offers, promising deep discounts to standing offer prices that bear little relation to the actual cost of providing electricity. By setting a default market offer from which all discounts must be calculated, consumers will be able easily to compare offers from different companies and recognise when they’re being ripped off or when they’re getting a fair deal. They’ll also be able to take up a default offer safe in the knowledge that they are not being gouged.
“Now the ACCC estimates that for average customers on an inflated standing offer the savings on moving to a new default market offer of the kind they recommend could range between $183 and $416.
“Now we also think small businesses, many of whom are on equivalent rates to households have the right to the same protections and support. The ACCC’s estimated gains for the average small to medium business on a standing offer, if they move to the default offer as proposed, could range between $561 and $1,457.
“Now we’re going to provide the ACCC and the Australian Energy Regulator with $31. 9m in additional funding to better monitor the electricity market and pricing to ensure all participants are acting in the best interests of their customers.
“Ultimately this will secure lower power bills in the short to medium term; but we want the big power companies to know that we mean business.
“So we will introduce significant new powers so the ACCC can step in where there has been an abuse or misuse of market power. In the most egregious cases of market abuse, where the warnings from the ACCC are not adequately addressed, additional powers will be conferred on government to issue directions on operations, functional separation and even as a last resort, divestiture of parts of the big power companies and we’ll begin work on this now.
“Now, some may say this is heavy-handed. People said that when I took on the gas companies to make sure that we had enough gas in eastern Australia. But you know, breaking up market concentration by ordering the separation of vertically integrated companies, yes, it is a power of last resort, but it’s necessary to have it available and we’ll make sure the government and the ACCC has the strongest tools with all of the appropriate safeguards.
“Now, each and every one of these measures is designed with just one purpose in mind – making sure you get the best deal on electricity, making sure we do everything we can to lower your electricity bill.
“The ACCC, after this most comprehensive study says they believe these initiatives can reduce power bills by hundreds of dollars for households and small businesses. Now, the minister for the environment and energy will work with his state counterparts to implement these measures recommended by the ACCC, but if necessary, if we can’t get the cooperation we need, we will put them in place with federal legislation.
“Now this is our commitment to the Australian people. We are determined that your power bill will be lower. We are determined to ensure that you get treated fairly by the big energy companies. We’re determined that the corner that we’ve turned on power prices is going to continue and we’re going to continue.”
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Michael McCormack is thrilled coal is back on the agenda:
“The fact that there is going to be coal-fired power stations very much a part of the mix … I appreciate there is coal, pumped hydro, gas, all those things. But for us, coal is certainly very much part of our thinking, part of our strategy and support and I am delighted that the recommendations are going to be acted upon quickly, particularly the recommendation four [underwriting firm-able power].”
Not that it matters at this stage, but the ACCC never said coal. It just said underwriting baseload power projects.
“I am not afraid to say the c-word, coal, coal, coal,” says Bridget McKenzie.
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The Nationals have gathered around Michael McCormack – Bridget McKenzie, Matt Canavan and David Littleproud are all in shot, in the Nationals party room, in front of the flags, talking about the drought relief. Nigel Scullion is just off camera.
Nothing to see here, is the visual message. We are all behind the leadership.
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Barnaby Joyce says his colleagues should get behind this new plan.
“I think it is a little bit dangerous when the political wing in Canberra is confused with the branch members in Queensland,” Joyce says on the LNP rumblings.
“We have had the fight, we have had the outcome and now we move on.
“I don’t think changing prime ministers looks good.”
Joyce says that Michael McCormack is safe.
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Here is the whole George Christensen statement:
“We have a new energy policy thanks to a band of ‘Liberal National rebels’ who stood firm and fought for common sense,” Mr Christensen said.
“What has been announced this morning puts price reductions first and foremost, so pensioners struggling to pay their power bills come before the ‘feel good’ Paris Agreement.”
The key policy points are:
- The Liberal National Government will both underwrite new clean coal-fired power stations and upgrade existing coal-fired power stations, as well as underwrite gas and hydro.
- There will be no legislating or regulating the Paris Agreement or carbon emissions reductions.
- There will be a default price for power which energy companies will need to abide by.
-
This will see savings for householders of between $183 and $416 for householders, and for job-creating small businesses of between $500 and $1500.
- Big energy companies who abuse market power will be broken up
- The Liberal National government will work with the States to ensure a guarantee around reliability so the power doesn’t go out again like it did in South Australia
“This new policy provides what I have been pushing for since this debate began, and credit is due to my Nationals colleagues, particularly deputy prime minister Michael McCormack and other Nationals cabinet ministers for the hard work they’ve done,” Christensen said.
“This is a victory for common sense, in that we take advantage of the abundant coal reserves this country still has, and we use that abundance to deal with this issue of power prices once and for all.
“It’s the solution offering certainty that puts the interests of householders, farmers, business owners and industry first.”
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George Christensen is also happy:
Malcolm Turnbull's 'new' energy policy gets a big tick from LNP MP George Christensen: "A victory for common sense"
— Bevan Shields (@BevanShields) August 20, 2018
“What has been announced puts price reductions first and foremost, so pensioners struggling to pay their power bills come before the ‘feel good’ Paris agreement."
Barnaby Joyce has popped up on Sky.
He says he is happy with the changes “a good outcome”, he says.
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On whether Labor should have compromised (I am not sure on what, given there was no legislation to compromise on, in front of the House) Bill Shorten has this to say:
Do you have any idea what the current government position is? I think it is a fair point, but when you ask us what we will have to do to agree with them, what is their current position?
On Tuesday Mr Turnbull said an emissions target must be legislated. Then he said to not legislated would be an assault on democracy. Then Friday he was prepared to assault democracy. Today, we have our best hieroglyphics alternatives out trying to understand the merchant bankers’ gobbledygook policy this morning. When you have an alternative, come and talk to us. When the Prime Minister says bipartisanship is beyond us, that is unfair. We have been willing to consider whatever proposal they come up with. They don’t have a functioning proposal. Mr Turnbull sat down with us, but that has changed, I can’t keep up with the internal warfare”
Shorten wraps up by saying:
I would say to Malcolm Turnbull, please get your house in order, start focusing on the people and lower prices rather than just saving your own job.
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Bill Shorten takes the mic again:
We won’t give Malcolm Turnbull a blank cheque, and I don’t think that would be expected, but we would like to talk about energy prices, as long as it includes more renewable energy, lower prices and less pollution.
We were willing to engage with the first idea of an emissions intensity scheme. Labor was prepared to compromise and engage on the 2017 plan, which was a clean energy target designed by the chief scientist. In 2018, we are prepared to discuss the latest policy, but I think in all fairness, if you know what his latest policy is could you let us know? He keeps changing his mind every day. The real problem is Mr Turnbull believes bipartisanship is when he can get the two wings of his own party to agree, he is not talking about us. I say to Malcolm, you have my number, we are down the hall from you, on other issues we have worked together.
I’m not saying we will automatically agree that I’m willing to put as high party politics just to lower energy prices, to lower emissions and to have more renewable energy in the system.”
Shorter version, you have my number, PM - call me, maybe?
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Labor’s energy spokesman Mark Butler:
I want to address a couple of comments the prime minister made in his press conference this morning. He talked about the Labor party’s ideas about this. We had a briefing scheduled for last Thursday. That briefing was cancelled by the government and after a number of times where we have tried to have that briefing rescheduled, we have heard nothing from the government at all. We have been up for a briefing to understand what it was Malcolm Turnbull was proposing that we have been rebuffed on a number of occasions since late last week in our attempts to sit down with a government and understand their latest proposals.
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'White flag prime minister', says Shorten
Bill Shorten has stepped up to the microphone - and he is in front of a solar farm.
Mr Turnbull has demonstrated that he is not the leader this nation needs. Real leadership is about fighting for the principles you believe in. Real leadership is about not always giving in to your enemies every time they disagree with you. Real leadership should be about putting lower pollution and lower prices at the forefront of energy policy. The problem is with Mr Turnbull, every time people who don’t like him and his party disagree with them, he gives up.
From day one of his prime ministership we have seen the same pattern. Mr Turnbull has never seen a fight that he won’t give up his principles in order to keep his job. He is truly a white flag prime minister.
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Nationals press conference at 1pm
And to complete our trifecta, the Nationals will hold a press conference at 1pm.
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Bill Shorten is moments away from holding his press conference – before he steps up, here is what we know about the government negotiations with Labor about the Neg: they didn’t happen.
There was a briefing which was scheduled for last Thursday, and it was cancelled. It wasn’t re-scheduled, although Labor sources say it was asked for.
Labor has not been asked about its voting intentions. So the government basically just pulled the Neg, based on not having the numbers, before checking to see if Labor would back it or not.
The only reading of that, is that this was done to appease Tony Abbott and his supporters.
Linda Reynolds sort of confirmed this in her interview on Sky, although inadvertently:
“Once we have a position that the whole party room is comfortable with then we can have a conversation with Labor.”
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Over in the Senate....
Pauline Hanson went to debate this bill, which she links to below in her tweet.
IMMIGRATION PLEBISCITE | The Senate is set to debate @PaulineHansonOz's Plebiscite (Future Migration Level) Bill 2018. #auspol
— Pauline Hanson 🇦🇺 (@PaulineHansonOz) August 19, 2018
BILL DETAILS https://t.co/72EwrrAtyShttps://t.co/ZhaFI3Q8Dm
That is part of private senators’ business, where One Nation had one hour and Labor had one hour, according to the roster. One Nation also had a bill from Peter Georgiou, so they wanted some extra time to discuss both.
One Nation moved to adjourn debate, so it could get to Hanson’s bill, without finishing its first debate, which received the support of the government.
So effectively, the government voted with Hanson to get the debate on our immigration levels up. Labor, the Greens, the crossbench and Fraser Anning, voted against the motion, defeating it, 32 to 31.
Take from that what you will.
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Linda Reynolds is the next MP up on Sky:
We are doing all the right things, we are doing all the right things for the nation, but we are not cutting through.
She says that once the energy issue is settled in the party room, the government can move forward with spreading that message.
I believe that a leader is only as good as the team that he or she leads and I believe that all of colleagues share in the knowledge that disunity is death.
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Sky News is reporting that Queensland LNP president, Gary Spence is urging MPs to support Peter Dutton.
This is not new. Malcolm Turnbull is not popular in Queensland, and has never been overly popular with the rather conservative party executive leadership. The LNP is one official party in Queensland – so it is the Nationals and the Liberals in a formal one-party marriage, and Turnbull has never been their favourite.
There has been reports of a breakdown in relations between the party HQ and the PMO for years, but Turnbull was given a warm welcome at the last state conference – which was held before the Longman byelection.
The LNP have blamed Turnbull for Longman, and for losing the state election in November last year (which saw Labor go from a minority government to a majority government in its own right), as it has watched voters turn to One Nation – and for those votes to return to Labor through preferences.
It’s not the most pure of responses – a lot of the One Nation voters were Labor voters, and the LNP has more issues in Queensland than just Malcolm Turnbull. Chief among these issues is that basically it is three states in one.
Longman has always been more of an Abbott LNP town than a Turnbull one – it was a photo of Wyatt Roy with Turnbull at the GQ awards which helped topple him at the 2016 election.
So the LNP leadership urging a shift towards Peter Dutton, who remains close with the executive, and whose fingerprints were on the Longman campaign, no matter what is publicly claimed, is not overly surprising to anyone who has been following Queensland politics.
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“This is the politics of division that the Labor party runs, it is politics of envy, of jealousy,” Eric Abetz says about Labor’s position on company tax cuts, in the same interview he is giving after helping to lead a minority rebellion against his own party which has resulted in a complete capitulation on a policy we have spent most of the year discussing.
It should be noted though, that formal negotiations with Labor had not even begun on this bill.
And Julia Gillard, on the numbers, was one of the most productive prime ministers in history, while governing a minority government:
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A Labor insider just reminded me of this Christopher Pyne press release during the Gillard government years, in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull admitting that he doesn’t have the numbers to get government policy through the party room, let alone the House:
“If the government cannot control the parliament, it cannot run the country,” Pyne said.
And that is based on this from the parliamentary rule book:
Withdrawal of confidence shown by defeat on other questions
The withdrawal by the House of its confidence in the government may be shown:
- By a direct vote of censure of or no confidence in the Government.
- By defeat on an issue central to government policy or rejecting a legislative measure proposed by the government, the acceptance of which the government has declared to be of vital importance. Conversely, a vote by the House agreeing to a particular legislative measure or provision contrary to the advice and consent of the government could similarly be regarded as a matter of confidence. Following defeat a government may choose to resign, as in April and August 1904, 1929 and 1941 (see page 324), or to seek a direct vote of confidence.
- By defeat of the government on a vote not necessarily central to government policy but accepted by the government as one of confidence, as in 1905, 1908, 1909 and 1931 (see page 324).
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A very chipper Eric Abetz is on Sky News right now, thanking them for broadcasting the press conference, and saying what he has seen from the prime minister is closer to what he was thinking when he coined the phrase “pensioners before Paris”.
There you have it – Abetz’s contribution to public debate. Pensioners before Paris. What an epitaph.
He says he hasn’t seen the detail yet though, so he will reserve his final judgement. Although he wants to see Paris dumped entirely. So, there is still that sticking point to keep this ticking over.
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Bill Shorten press conference at 11.45am
Bill Shorten is due to hold a press conference with Mark Butler and Andrew Leigh at 11.45.
The Labor leader is headed off campus. The media has been advised to wear long pants and enclosed shoes, which is hard hat territory.
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Here was Tony Abbott this morning:
I am just interested in trying to ensure that Australians have the lowest possible power prices and that people’s jobs are safe. That is what I am interested in. What that means is that we stop running a power system to reduce emissions. That is the madness at the heart of all of our problems and this is why I am so determined that we get out of the Paris Agreement because, as long as we are in it, we will be running our power system to reduce emissions and not to give us affordable, reliable power.
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So, the national energy guarantee is, as my colleague Gareth Hutchens just quipped, “Neg and buried”.
Instead, the government will seek to tell private power companies to do, with a focus on lowering power prices.
Again, directions of this kind could be used to keep a power station going and, in fact, there are many electricity markets in the world where there are rules that operate exactly like that. In the United States, it is called the “generator must run” rule where a generator can be obliged to keep running in order to maintain the relevant level of supply and security.
But I think the important thing is to focus on price, getting those prices down. I mean, in all of the discussions we have had with our colleagues and, indeed, with communities, everywhere you go, people are focused on getting their electricity bills down. That is what they want us to do. We are delivering, as I said. We have seen in the last quarter, the first downturn in electricity prices in a very long time. So we have got more to do and what we have announced today are measures that will succeed and I have in reason the doubt the calculations of the ACCC, succeed in reducing electricity bills by hundreds of dollars.
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His last answer is on whether or not he has spoken to Peter Dutton:
Peter Dutton was at our leadership group meeting this morning and he was at the cabinet last night. He’s a member of our team. He’s given me his absolute support.”
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Malcolm Turnbull’s words from 2009 – “I will not lead a party that is not as committed to effective action on climate change as I am” – have just been repeated back to him. And it turns out, that, yes, he is prepared to lead that party.
He responds with:
Again, that is an interesting speech that you’ve made to me. Can I say, I have, I enjoy the confidence of the cabinet and of my party room.”
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Katharine Murphy just said what we are all thinking – that effectively, Malcolm Turnbull has just announced Tony Abbott’s energy policy for him.
Turnbull, who looks more exhausted and, to be honest, broken, then I have ever seen him (I wasn’t here in 2009, so can’t compare) says:
Our energy policy, our energy policy remains the same, but we are not going to present a bill into the House of Representatives until we believe it will be carried. Right? Our energy policy remains the same. We’ve got the improvement that I referred to earlier to the national energy guarantee, but we obviously need the support of sufficient of our colleagues to get it passed and that means, you know, substantially all of them.
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As Laura Tingle just pointed out in the press conference, Malcolm Turnbull is moving forward with these changes, despite not knowing Labor’s position. He is trying to say that he has “overwhelming” support in the party room, at the same time as he is admitting that he doesn’t have the support to carry the bill in the House of Representatives.
We are parties to the Paris Agreement and the government has committed to that, but the simple reality is that we need to have, you know, effectively, all of our members in the House of Representatives to vote with the government to carry legislation, now, you know, you all understand the arithmetic of that and at this stage we don’t have, we have a number of, you know, a number of people, it is not a huge number, it’s a small number, I suppose, in the scheme of things. But nonetheless, it would be sufficient to prevent us from carrying the legislation. So we continue to talk to our colleagues about it, but the, you know, we are not going to propose legislation that will purely for the purpose of it being defeated.”
Turnbull admits he doesn't have votes for emissions legislation
Here is where Malcolm Turnbull admits he doesn’t have enough support in the party room to pass his legislation:
The National Energy Guarantee remains the government’s policy, but as you know, as John Howard said politics is governed by the iron laws of arithmetic and in a House of Representatives with a one seat majority, even with strong support in the party room, if a small number of people are not prepared to vote with the government on a measure then it won’t get passed. So that is the, so that’s the reality. Our policy remains to have the emissions intensity standard in the legislation.
The addition that we’ve, cabinet has agreed and which I flagged over the weekend, that came out of our discussions with colleagues is a very valuable one which is that any establishment of an emissions standard or variation of one, would require the confirmation from the energy regulators and the ACCC that it would not increase electricity prices.
I think that would be a very valuable improvement, but of course, it is a moot point until such time as we have enough support to pass it through the House.
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So, in effect, the Neg is done and dusted. There will be no legislated emissions target.
Malcolm Turnbull has capitulated to the minority of his party to save his leadership. There is no other way to view this.
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After a little to and fro over who gets to speak next, Scott Morrison steps up:
Three things, safety net, second, a big stick to keep the big companies in line and thirdly, backing investment in new generation through the recommendations of the ACCC.
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The “big stick” to power companies has been revealed:
We will introduce significant new powers so as the ACCC can step in where there has been abuse or misuse of market power. In the most [serious] cases of abuse, additional powers will be conferred on government to issue directions on operations, functional separation and even as a last resort, divestiture of parts of the big power companies and we’ll begin work on this now. Now, some may say this is heavy handed. People said that when I took on the gas companies to make sure we had enough gas in eastern Australia, but you know, breaking up, market concentration by ordering the separation of integrated companies, yes, it is a power of last resort, but it’s necessary to have it available and we’ll make sure that the government and the ACCC has the strongest tools with all of the appropriate safeguards.
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How do you spell capitulation? #auspol #NEG
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) August 20, 2018
It’s all building to removing the emissions targets.
Malcolm Turnbull:
Power bills are one of the biggest cost of living pressures facing Australian families and indeed expenses facing Australian businesses. They’ve risen over the last decade by 56% above the rate of inflation.
Now, rising electricity prices is causing families to stress which is why cheaper power has always been our number one priority when it comes to energy policy. Every measure we’ve taken in the past year has been to lower electricity prices for you, whether it has been making it easier to switch to a cheaper offer and you remember we brought in all the retailers to ensure they alerted people who were on the wrong plans, to take up a better plan, we’ve ensured that gas companies make more gas available for Australians and lower prices, we are pursuing also, as you know, with the national energy guarantee. Now, our measures are starting to work with power prices falling for the first time in years. In many parts of the nation. Now, that small relief was welcomed, but we have to continue the work to drive down prices.
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Malcolm Turnbull press conference
He opens on the national energy guarantee
We are doing everything we can to bring your electricity bill down. Our priority is cheaper electricity. Now today, we’re going to announce a range of new measures that will drive down the cost of energy for Australian families and businesses. Hundreds of dollars of savings as I’ll come to in a moment.
But first, let me say a few words about the national energy guarantee. Now, it is clear that in the absence of bipartisan support, the legislation to move forward with the emissions component of the national energy guarantee will not be able to pass the House of Representatives. Now, in politics you have to focus on what you can deliver and that’s what we’ve done and we’ll continue to do.
It looks like he is removing all emissions targets from the Neg.
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The Greens officially have a new senator:
An honour to welcome @MehreenFaruqi to our #Greens team. pic.twitter.com/AWwKyEcSE7
— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) August 20, 2018
And a reminder that Larissa Waters will be back next month.
Peter Dutton is still the home affairs minister, so Shayne Neumann has responded to this story, with this statement: (just a reminder as you read this, that last week Labor voted with the government on Dutton’s bill to reverse the Ashmore reef decision through legislation:
Labor is seriously concerned by reports regarding the health and welfare of children in the Australian-funded regional processing centre on Nauru.
Peter Dutton has been the minister responsible for Australian-funded regional processing centres for over three-and-a-half years and must immediately address his ongoing failures.
Today, Labor has written to Peter Dutton again, urging him to accept New Zealand’s offer to resettle eligible refugees from Manus and Nauru – so that they, including children, are resettled as quickly as possible.
Nauru and Manus Island were set up as temporary regional processing centres but have become places of indefinite detention because of the out-of-touch Turnbull government’s failure to negotiate other third-country resettlement options.
Labor strongly believes that medical transfers for refugees and children in Australian-funded offshore regional processing centres should be made available when a treatment is not available on island and where treatment is recommended by appropriate medical practitioners.
If the Turnbull government was able to negotiate appropriate conditions for the US refugee resettlement agreement to prevent people smugglers exploiting vulnerable people, they should be able to negotiate similar appropriate conditions for any deal with New Zealand.
It has been 16 months since the report of the Labor-initiated Senate inquiry following the leaked Nauru files and Peter Dutton has failed to act on these reasonable recommendations to address concerns held by the wider Australian community.
Peter Dutton’s unwillingness to implement, or even respond to, the recommendations set out in the report is unreasonable and irresponsible – especially when it comes to the health and welfare of refugees and children.
If Peter Dutton is too distracted by his leadership ambitions to address his failure to manage Australian-funded regional processing centres or negotiate other third-country resettlement options, it’s time for Malcolm Turnbull to step in and clean up his minister’s mess.
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The press conference Murph just mentioned is to be held in the Blue Room - which, as regular readers of Politics Live would know, is the second most fancy of the ‘serious’ press conference locations at Parliament House.
Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg will be joining the Malcolm Turnbull at the press conference. We can expect at least two flags.
The conventional wisdom currently circulating in the building
Just a quick snapshot of where things are said to be at. I say said to be at because in this environment, things can and do change quickly.
We expect the PM to speak to reporters at 10am. The Coalition party room meeting, due tomorrow, has not been brought forward as yet (so whatever the PM announces is in advance of that procedural sign off).
People expect that the PM will unveil the package to lower power prices. Along with the price components, several of my contacts are telling me the package could include a power to force AGL to divest the Liddell coal plant. There is also some talk that the emissions component of the national energy guarantee will be junked altogether – but I stress this is what’s circulating in the building, rather than something I can, at this point, absolutely confirm.
As they say in our business, more to come.
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Last week, it was Taylor Swift, this week, our politicians are taking Beyoncé’s name in vain. This from Murray Watt:
This government has been in power for five years. They have been unable to come up with an energy policy that brings down emissions and brings down power prices – and Australians have paid the cost.
We don’t know what this government stands for when it comes to energy policy. Malcolm Turnbull is changing his energy policy more often than Beyoncé changes her costumes.
I have every confidence that all of the reports we are seeing this morning about what is going to be in this energy policy will have changed by morning tea, and they will have changed again by lunchtime.
Australians are sick of the constant changes from this government about energy policy. Prices keep on going up, every day that this government remains locked in division.
We should have known it would be Labor who invoked Beyoncé though. She literally sings “to the left, to the left”.
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“We’ve got a great story and we need to tell it better,” Darren Chester says, echoing every single MP in the history of bad government polls.
We are now getting mentions of “the real world”.
So things are going fabulous.
“In the real world, people are focused on real outcomes,” he says.
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“I think Malcom Turnbull will definitely last the week and I think Malcolm Turnbull will last all the way to the next election and will win it,” says Nationals MP Darren Chester on Sky.
It is probably also worth pointing out, given that the Liberal party doesn’t have a national structure and is run as separate entities under the one umbrella within each state, that Peter Dutton was quite visible during the Longman byelection and active within the campaign. And the LNP still saw its primary vote drop to 30%.
Peter Dutton will not necessarily ‘save the furniture’ in Queensland. A lot of people there are just sick and tired of the government as a whole and want change. Many of the seats in danger are those held by the Nats, and a shift to Dutton won’t necessarily change those minds either. In WA, where quite a few Liberal MPs are also in trouble, including cabinet ministers, Dutton is not a magic pill either.
And that is before we even consider the seat redistribution, which gives Labor a heads up before we even hear the starting gun go off.
With the very strong caveat that there is not even official numbers being counted (it’s more the vibe of the whole thing), a few people have asked about the process in a Liberal party leadership spill.
Luckily, we have plenty in recent history to look back at to remind us.
Any member of the Liberal party (remember, Nationals don’t get a vote) can call the spill in the party room meeting. Someone has to second it. Then the motion is moved, with a majority of the room voting for the motion. If that is successful, the leadership is declared vacant and then people nominate for the top spot. If one person nominates without challenge, winner, winner chicken dinner. If there is more than one nominee, then the vote is called on and, at my rough count (correct me if I am wrong, numbers are not exactly my thing) there are 84 Liberal party members in the parliament, which means someone has to get at least 42 votes to win.
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In the Senate, Mehreen Faruqi will be sworn in as the first order of business.
Then there is a bunch of private senators’ business, with government business – the company tax cut bill – not up until after 12.
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Jim Molan’s latest position on the Neg comes after he received a shellacking from Peta Credlin on Sky over his support for the Neg last week.
Molan said then he supported the whole package, which was more than just the Neg, while still standing against the Paris agreement.
Credlin repeatedly questioned him over how he could be against Paris but for the Neg.
And now, here we are.
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Liberal senator Jim Molan has posted a Facebook video noting that the national energy guarantee has “changed significantly” since last week and setting what seems to be a very difficult test for his support.
He said:
Good morning, I’d like to talk to you for a minute about the government’s energy policy. I will spend today assessing my personal position on energy policy. I expressed support last week on Neg plus plus plus plus and plus in the party room but also expressed my concerns. It would appear from media reports that the policy has now changed significantly, that it’s a very fluid situation and I can only go by media reports. I owe it to the leadership of the Coalition to give them time to tell me exactly what the new policy is, then I will make my mind up in relation to it. If media reports are to be trusted, the changes that are being mooted don’t go to the concerns that I have. The concerns that I still have are: whether our energy policy is necessary; whether it will achieve any effect on climate; and whether the cost will be worth it.
I’d like to talk to you about the Government’s energy policy. #auspol #energy https://t.co/DuqSTuRpSI
— Senator Jim Molan (@JimMolan) August 19, 2018
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Mehreen Faruqi will be sworn into the Senate a little later this morning.
Faruqi is replacing Lee Rhiannon for the Greens.
Just a reminder: Tony Abbott signed Australia up to the Paris agreement.
Tony Abbott was the prime minister when the budget was handed down which offered the states a slice of a $5bn “asset recycling fund” to build infrastructure in exchange for selling off their power assets.
It is now Abbott arguing for Australia to dump Paris. And Abbott who is saying “we must do something” to keep Liddell open.
Anyone spotting the common dominator here?
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Tony Abbott has stopped by doors.
Just a reminder that the only politicians we see outside the doors are the ones who want to chat to the cameras.
He is insisting that it is “not about personalities, it is about policy”.
“It is not about him, it is not about me ... the only way we can win the election is to have a contest on policy,” he says.
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This should fix it. The ole, “we already have a prime minister, why on earth would we need a new one” argument.
Cabinet Minister Dan Tehan: "We have a Prime Minister in Malcolm Turnbull. He will lead us to the next election." #auspol @politicsabc
— Jane Norman (@janeenorman) August 19, 2018
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In a truly remarkable feat of timing, Christopher Pyne has just updated his register of interests to declare he was gifted tickets to see Hamlet at the Adelaide Festival. Yes ... Hamlet.
The Shakespearean tragedy about backstabbing, betrayal and a murderous plot to steal the throne. Great stuff, Chris.
Christopher Pyne has updated the interests register. https://t.co/91CZK9Ff8S
— DisclosureBot (@AusDisclosure) August 19, 2018
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This was my favourite cartoon from the weekend – I count nine Dutts. I have heard the argument for the upside-down Dutts in the curtain, but am not convinced it’s a proper Dutts.
This completely cracked the @sundayage newsroom up - The Dutton-ing from @GoldingCartoons How many can you find?! pic.twitter.com/0CoeQPwjns
— The Age (@theage) August 18, 2018
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“What I want is the government to unite and to focus,” Tim Wilson says, like he is not part of the government which has created this situation and allowing it to play out.
Tim Wilson is just thrilled he has a “regular spot on Sky and are obliged to come in for a chat” this morning. He is absolutely loving life.
He is sticking VERY hard to his lines. Complete with hand movements. I’m not suggesting that he has practiced the line “we are focussed on driving down power prices” in the mirror, but I’m not, not saying that.
Fun fact: no prime minister has served an entire election term since John Howard.
So we haven’t had a prime minister serve out a term between elections since 2007.
Kevin Rudd to Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd to Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull to ....
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The halls have gone very quiet. VERRRRRRRY quiet.
Which would suggest there are meetings happening – but calm down, it makes sense, given they are just about to announce the new changes to the Neg.
So, will it be enough?
And does it really matter? This whole thing went beyond energy a long, long time ago – the policy is just the stalking horse which has allowed Tony Abbott to weaponise his discontent and anger at what happened to him in 2015.
But there doesn’t seem to be a unified strategy to this at the moment. No one knows what to do or how they should play it out.
We haven’t reached the stage where Kevin Andrews sees the need to put his hand up for the leadership yet, so there is still some room.
And if anyone wants to disagree that this has nothing to do with energy policy and everything to do with 2009 and then 2015, here is Andrews in November last year, describing Turnbull as the leader “for the moment”:
“At the present time, Mr Turnbull is the prime minister.
“He’s the leader, he’s the prime minister. I’m simply saying he’s the prime minister. But what we have at the moment is a clear frustration on the part of the Australian public that they’re not getting what they want and whoever the leader is, they need to be responding to this.”
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We are going to hear about the latest “refinements”, as Christopher Pyne would say, to the national energy guarantee this morning.
Very soon, this morning.
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Probably not this, Tim. Probably not this.
I stopped and consulted a sage man while running around the lake this morning ... #WhatWouldMenziesDo? pic.twitter.com/Pdxk14MRFk
— Tim Wilson MP (@TimWilsonMP) August 19, 2018
Given the speed of Turnbull's capitulation on energy policy, if the PM lasts the week don't rule out Craig Kelly being Energy Minister by the end of it.
— Anthony Chisholm (@AnthonyChisholm) August 19, 2018
You know, stranger things have happened. And I’ll say this, while Craig Kelly is, well, very Craig Kelly, he is one of the few people in the government who is actually across the Neg.
Labor is mostly letting the Liberal party play this out uninterrupted, but Jim Chalmers stopped by doors this morning with this message:
I’ve seen a number of pretty strange things in this place over the years, but the idea that Peter Dutton could be the prime minister of Australia really takes the cake. The answer for the Liberal party is not to change the leader of a divided and dysfunctional government; the answer is to change the government.”
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Pressed on leadership speculation, Craig Kelly told ABC radio he supports the prime minister. But he is focused on energy policy – “it is not about personality, it is about policy”, he says.
The prime minister has my support. We’re looking forward to working through through the issues we have on the national energy guarantee and having the debate and making sure we get the policies that will get electricity prices down from the levels they are and down significantly as quickly as they possibly can.
He says he has only spoken to Peter Dutton at lunch to say hello.
“There is no challenge at the moment,” he says outside the ABC studio.
Then he realises the caveat he just put on that.
“There is no challenge,” he corrects.
(He is not wearing the same outfit as Bowers this morning. He’s starting the week in a suit, instead of a red parka for a start.)
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Greg Bearup wrote up a profile on Nationals leader Michael McCormack for the Weekend Oz. The point of these pieces is usually to either introduce the electorate to an unknown MP looking to increase their profile, quell a challenge, or send out a warning shot.
For McCormack, who hasn’t made much of an impact since taking over the leadership from Barnaby Joyce (and if you need proof of that, go outside and ask someone who the deputy prime minister is) is still struggling to find his feet in front of a bigger spotlight.
But, as Bearup points out in his piece, that is not stopping his detractors from attempting to push against him – or, as he words it, “the dogs are barking”. From his report:
“I don’t think he has ever stood for anything,” says one of his parliamentary colleagues. “I just don’t think he’s got the mettle to do it.” This colleague tells me that when McCormack was parliamentary secretary to the finance minister, he was tasked with renovating The Lodge. “He was shithouse. It was his one job and it was three years late and three times over budget.” One of McCormack’s former staffers tells me he is not across his brief, can’t keep up with his correspondence, and that if he goes head to head with Albanese in the infrastructure portfolio, “Albo will wipe the floor … He is just not across any detail. Michael doesn’t want to do the work. Michael wants to swan around to State of Origin and AFL football matches and not actually do the work. The reality is you have to do the work.”
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With all this talk floating around that Peter Dutton will “help save the furniture” in Queensland, I can tell you that Labor types up there are very excited over the prospect of a Dutton government – because it would make it easier to win seats in the south-east, like Brisbane, which is currently held by Trevor Evans.
They also point out that Dutton is struggling to hold on to his own seat of Dickson, just north of Brisbane, and that the spotlight which comes with being prime minister could annoy enough previously ambivalent voters to come out and vote against him. Plus, he wouldn’t have as much time to campaign in his seat because the leader of the party has to be everywhere.
“Queensland is already looking pretty good for us, but this would just be the icing on the cake,” one Labor campaigner just told me.
“I hope they do it. Not only would Victoria be totally gone, it will win us seats we’ve put in the maybe pile, which makes it easier the election after the next.”
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Leader of the government in the lower house, Christopher Pyne, has noted that Tony Abbott is “at least going public – he’s not anonymously briefing” against the prime minister, unlike some others.
Presumably he means conservative backbenchers, because Pyne then added that Peter Dutton was not behind the current campaign against Malcolm Turnbull.
He said:
I don’t believe there’ll be a challenge to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. I believe that the cabinet is 100% behind Malcolm Turnbull, including Peter Dutton. He’s a very valued colleague, a good friend, he’s very competent. I don’t believe he’s doing anything to change the leadership of the party.
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Christopher Pyne also said the prime minister would announce the latest “refinements” to the national energy guarantee later today, which he thinks will make the party room happy.
On Friday, the government floated a proposal that would mean any emissions target would be set through regulation, not legislation, which caused even more upset. On Sunday, in a social media message, Malcolm Turnbull appeared to walk that back, and was again talking about a form of legislation.
On the polls though, Pyne, as always, was finding his silver lining:
One of outcomes from disunity is poor polling figures. And the people who are trying to create disunity, that’s what they want and then they try to feed on that poll and say – see, we told you so. The more interesting thing about the poll is the 66% of Coalition voters who support the national energy guarantee and want action on climate change and the national energy guarantee is a popular policy in the public and, of course, has near-unanimous support with industry and we will make refinements to that today to bring a big stick to energy companies to ensure that prices are being forced down because prices is the number one issue when it comes to energy in Australia and we are focused on that.
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Christopher Pyne is at least being upfront that the party room is not united – naming Tony Abbott as the chief detractor during a chat with Fran Kelly on RN this morning:
Tony Abbott, at least, to his credit, doesn’t talk behind closed doors to the media. He comes out and says it in the press. So what he says doesn’t surprise me. He has been quite negative about some of the aspects of the government and the prime minister for some time. And at least he doesn’t do so anonymously. But I don’t agree with your assessment that Peter Dutton is preparing to challenge MalcolmTurnbull. I don’t agree with that at all.
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Education minister Simon Birmingham has been out defending his leader after a dive in the Ipsos poll and leadership speculation that conservatives have approached Peter Dutton to challenge the prime minister.
Birmingham told Sky News that cabinet and Turnbull government ministers are focused on lowering power prices.
He said: “I would urge everybody else – the handful of individuals who cause trouble – to think about the consequence of continuing to cause that trouble.
I sat in Coalition party room last week – and I heard overwhelming support for the policies that we’re putting forward. It’s literally only a handful of individuals who decided to try to derail those policies.”
Asked if the majority support Malcolm Turnbull to continue as leader, Birmingham said “yes” and repeated his observation that the party room had supported the national energy guarantee. That was before Turnbull modified the policy to put emissions targets in regulation not legislation. A week is a long time in politics.
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Good morning
Well, that escalated quickly.
The rumblings around Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership turned into a roar over the weekend, as the prime minister’s detractors – Tony Abbott chief among them – used the energy debate as a proxy for other grievances, namely Abbott losing the leadership in 2015.
The latest Ipsos poll, published by Fairfax, has Labor ahead 55 to 45, which is outside the margin of error. The headlines in today’s newspapers are absolutely dire and a dinner last night with the cabinet does not seem to have done much to quell the tensions.
Especially since, as the Australian reports, Abbott told a group of Young Liberals in Tasmania that he was quite looking forward to working in a “Dutton government”.
Dutton tweeted the prime minister had his support on the weekend. Since then, he has been pressed by conservative colleagues to challenge. It doesn’t look like he has the numbers. But does Turnbull have the numbers without Dutton?
It seems like a lifetime ago Turnbull held a press conference to announce he had his own party’s support for his energy policy.
Meanwhile, Nationals MPs have been briefing against Michael McCormack – mostly the ones who were never happy with the switch from Barnaby Joyce in the first place. So things are going GREAT.
I think we have all shown time and time again that there is nothing the electorate loves more from its leadership than leadership challenges.
I mean, it’s been almost exactly three years since the last time we switched up sitting prime ministers – we’re running a little behind schedule.
And among all of that, we still have some policy – the latest incarnation of the national energy guarantee (Neg) is to be announced, which is what that cabinet dinner and meeting was for overnight, while the government is also prepared to let its company tax cuts be defeated in the Senate.
Mike Bowers is out and about – there are quite a few ministers who have been up since dawn pressing their side of the tensions. We’ll bring you that. The Guardian brains trust has been up since before the crack of dawn keeping abreast of all the developments.
So grab your coffee or whatever it is you need to get you through this. Maybe a cup of Bovril?
Let’s get into it.
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