Europe is turning to Turkey to fill the security vacuum left by an increasingly unreliable United States. But as Nato's secretary-general was praising Ankara's growing military role this week, the European Commission president was placing Turkey in the same bracket as China and Russia. The contradiction points to a dilemma that is only going to deepen.
Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte visited Aselsan, one of Turkey's fast-expanding defence companies and a growing arms supplier to Europe, during a trip to Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday, using the occasion to underline the scale of threats facing the alliance.
NATO's southern anchor
"Russia's war against Ukraine rages on, China's military modernisation and nuclear expansion continue, and Iran spreads terror and chaos, and you feel this here in Turkey," he said.
The visit came days after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered a different message, placing Turkey alongside China and Russia as a competitor rather than an ally or membership applicant.
It was a rare public signal of how deep European reservations about Ankara run, even as reliance on Turkish military capacity grows.
Europe's uneasy dependency
Huseyin Bagci, professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University, says the contrast between Rutte and von der Leyen exposes a fundamental contradiction at the heart of Europe's relationship with Ankara.
"What Rutte said and what von der Leyen said are two contradictory statements," he said. "Turkey is becoming less democratic. But the more America separates itself from European security, the more important Turkey will become."
That dynamic is already reshaping Nato's architecture. Adana is set to host a new corps headquarters, designated MNC-TUR, under Turkish command, while Istanbul is to become the base of a new maritime command, focused on Black Sea security as part of post-war planning for Ukraine.
Serhat Guvenc, a military expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says Turkey's expanding capabilities and operational record make the enlarged role a natural fit.
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*"Turkey's future contribution may take shape around these existing initiatives," he said, pointing to the wartime grain corridor and the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures task group as foundations to build on. Turkey has also launched an ambitious naval building programme, with modern submarines well suited to Black Sea operations.
Yet the question of how far Europe can trust Ankara remains unresolved. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin throughout the Ukraine war.
Federico Donelli, a political scientist at the University of Trieste, says the EU is still searching for clarity on where Turkey actually stands. "Turkey has on many occasions adopted a more ambiguous stance, even in relation to the war in Ukraine," he said. "The EU would like to know whether Turkey could be a reliable partner."
If Putin wins
Ankara argues that its relationship with Moscow is a diplomatic asset, allowing it to serve as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has hosted peace talks between the two sides on several occasions.
But Guvenc warns that calculus could shift sharply if Russia emerges victorious. "If peace comes on Putin's terms, the potential Russian threat to Turkey's interests will increase several-fold," he said. "Russia emerging from the conflict with substantial gains will be a very different story."
Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies
The tension between Turkey's military indispensability and its political unpredictability is set to take centre stage at the Nato summit on 7-8 July in Ankara. With Washington's commitment to European defence still in question, European leaders may find themselves with little choice but to deepen ties with a partner many of them do not fully trust.
