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Radio France Internationale
Radio France Internationale
World
Dorian Jones

Turkey's Erdogan faces economic hurdles following election victory

With Turkey grappling with inflation of more than 40 percent as well as widespread condemnation over the handling of February's earthquakes, Erdogan's election victory is widely considered his most impressive. AFP - ADEM ALTAN

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was sworn in for a fifth term on Saturday after winning re-election last weekend. But he will have little time to rest with the threat of a financial crisis and a tricky balancing act between Russia and Turkey's traditional Western allies.

Erdogan's victory, widely considered his toughest, came despite an ailing economy and criticism over the handling of devastating earthquakes.

On the streets of Istanbul, his presidential runoff victory over challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu came as little surprise.

"It is the normal result, a good result. This was what we hoped for," says Istanbul resident Mehmet, who wanted to be identified only by his first name.

"The first round had already determined the result. By the second round, we knew the outcome beforehand. It's going to be good for our country."

But with Turkey facing soaring inflation and a weakening currency, for others, the result is fueling fear over what comes next.

"The problems are so big, whether it's the economy or other things," says fruit street trader Askin, who also wanted to be identified by his first name.

"Let me tell you, this is not something that will be fixed in just two days. It will not be solved easily. Part of the problem is the people themselves. They only think about their own interests."

Impressive win

With Turkey grappling with inflation of more than 40 percent as well as widespread condemnation over the handling of February's earthquakes, Erdogan's election victory is widely considered his most impressive.

But the quake-struck region gave Erdogan some of his strongest support, with backers celebrating his victory deep into the night.

A remarkable result, says Can Selcuki, the head of Istanbul Economics Research, an opinion poll company. This is especially given Kilicdaroglu's more generous campaign promises over rehousing quake victims.

"Erdogan said that they would rebuild and sell the houses. Kilicdaroglu said they would rebuild and give them away for free. And looking at the results, people believe Erdogan more than Kilicdaroglu, so I would say it's a widespread notion," said Selcuki.

Upon news of his victory, Erdogan sang to his supporters, vowing he would be with them until the grave. Some observers say that given Erdogan has never been more powerful, he could already be planning to abolish presidential term limits as part of constitutional reform plans.

"Secure and stronger certainly for another five years," predicted Huseyin Bagci, the head of the Foreign Policy Institute, an Ankara-based research organisation.

"Even I expect that he [Erdogan] will try to extend this presidential period, like Putin, like Xi Jinping, and maybe forever," added Bagci.

"He has the parliamentary majority. I do think that they will do this, a constitutional change that he can apply for another term."

Challenges ahead

But Erdogan faces formidable challenges. The Turkish leader is vowing to continue his unorthodox economic policies, which are widely blamed for soaring inflation and a weakening currency.

"I think there is now a consensus among secularist or respectable economists that Turkey is heading very rapidly to currency crises," Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners says, warning of financial turmoil.

"I personally think Turkey cannot survive this winter without major, substantive and credible economic policy change."

To avert such a crisis, Erdogan is predicted to turn to Mehmet Simsek to lead his financial team. Simsek is a former minister who once worked for the international finance company Merrill Lynch.

However, analysts warn it remains to be seen whether Simsek will have the independence to return to economic orthodoxy and anathema to Erdogan.

Any hopes that Erdogan is ready to perform another political somersault in foreign policy is less likely, warns analysts Bagci. Instead, he says Erdogan will continue to balance his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's traditional Western allies.

"They are good friends. It is true Turkish-Russian relations for the next five years will continue to be stronger. In his presidential speech, he was talking about this," Bagci said.

"But Putin is definitely very happy that he has his friend as president again for another five years. And so it will be much easier to work with [Putin] than Tayyip Erdogan working together with the European Union and the United States of America."

Putin was among the first to congratulate Erdogan on his latest victory, praising what he called his "independent foreign policy".

However, that policy will likely be tested on whether Erdogan will bow to Washington and other NATO members and lift Turkey's veto of Sweden's bid to join the military alliance when NATO leaders meet next month.

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