Following several Iranian missile strikes targeting Turkey, Ankara is accelerating its efforts to create its own missile defence system dubbed the “steel dome”. According to reports, it is in talks to procure Europe's latest anti-missile system. But Ankara’s aspirations are unnerving Israel – as well as its neighbours, Greece and Cyprus.
Air raid warnings during an Iranian missile strike on the Turkish city of Adana, home to a Nato airbase, served as a stark reminder of Turkey's vulnerability to such attacks.
While all the missiles were intercepted by Nato forces, Turkish security analyst Arda Mevlutoglu says the attacks are spurring Ankara on to procure the French-Italian SAMP/T anti-missile system.
"Turkey's existing air defence system inventory, as well as the maturing air defence systems, are not capable of countering medium-range ballistic missiles or long-range ballistic missiles," he said.
"So Turkey needs an urgent operational gap filler to address the ballistic missile threats. And the next-generation version of the SAMP/T seems to be the only option."
Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes
Turkey's technological advances
Along with procuring the missile system, Ankara is seeking a joint production and development agreement. Turkish defence companies are making rapid advances in missile technology, and Turkish firms are already working closely with several Italian arms manufacturers, including Leonardo, which is involved in the SAMP/T development.
This burgeoning relationship is facilitated by close diplomatic ties between the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
However, strained Turkish-French relations have blocked Ankara's previous attempts to buy SAMP/T. Paris hasn’t commented on Ankara’s latest efforts, but Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, an Italian think tank, says Rome will likely be working hard to overcome any French opposition.
“It's a window of opportunity, not a guaranteed outcome. The defence and security dossier is very, very central, for both the private sector and the public sector, between Italy and Turkey."
Chiriatti says the purchase of the SAMP/T missile system is more than just an arms sale.
“The discussions are less about a simple arms purchase, but more about a broader configuration of Turkey's defence strategy and relationship with Europe, and with Italy and France."
Ukraine seeks defence ties in Middle East as Zelensky visits Damascus
'Anti-Israeli rhetoric'
SAMP/T missiles are seen by Ankara as key to the development of its Steel Dome programme to provide a comprehensive air defence system, akin to Israel’s Iron Dome.
However, advances in Turkey’s missile systems aren’t confined to defence. This month saw the unveiling of offensive hypersonic missiles – unnerving Israel, given rising bilateral tensions, warns Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies.
"Not a day passes without very harsh rhetoric coming from Turkey towards Israel,” she said. "And it's not just rhetoric that is criticising Israel's actions, [but] many times rhetoric that is delegitimising Israel as a whole."
She added: “We see also, of course, the growing Turkish capabilities. Turkey, after the 12-day war in June, said it would advance its missile programme, its long-range and medium-range missile programmes. Israelis are now suffering from the damage missiles do. Israel doesn't completely understand why Turkey needs missiles."
Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes
Europe's shifting priorities
European Union members Greece and Cyprus, which have a number of territorial disputes with Turkey, are also voicing concerns over Ankara’s rearming and, in particular, its missile programme.
In the past, Athens has successfully lobbied its European partners – in particular France – over the sale of sophisticated weapons to Turkey.
However, security expert Federico Donaelli of Trieste University says that given Turkey's strategic location neighbouring Russia and the Middle East, and as home to NATO’s second largest army, Greek and Cypriot influence is on wane
“I don't think they will be able to make a stop to this process,” he predicts. "The priority of the European countries is security. And to be able to collaborate more in the defence sector and to be an ally with a state like Turkey will definitely be useful in some way to address some big challenges, including the Russian one."
The future of the sale of the SAMP/T missile system to Turkey remains unclear, with critics warning such a deal threatens to add to growing regional instability.
But with the Iran war and its uncertain outcome creating a potential new threat to Europe, coupled with that from Russia, the importance of Turkey to European security will only add weight to calls for greater cooperation.
