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The Guardian - UK
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Kate Lyons (now), Verity Bowman and Jon Henley (earlier)

Turkey elections 2018: Erdoğan declared winner – as it happened

A voter casts her ballot at a polling station in Trabzon, Turkey.
A voter casts her ballot at a polling station in Trabzon, Turkey. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

We are wrapping up the live coverage of today’s presidential election in Turkey, an event the Guardian’s Kareem Shaheen called “arguably the most important election in Turkey’s modern history”.

  • The official Anadolu Agency reported that, with 99% of votes counted, Erdoğan had won a 52.54% share of the national vote, while the opposition CHP party’s candidate, Muharrem İnce, was on 30.68%.
  • Erdoğan’s victory means will now assume an office imbued with sweeping executive powers that voters narrowly approved in a constitutional referendum last year, including the power to issue decrees with the force of law, appoint the cabinet and vice-presidents as well as senior judges.
  • İnce, a charismatic physics teacher from secularist opposition party CHP, has announced he will give a speech at noon Monday local time. He did not immediately concede defeat on Sunday night and disputed ongoing tallies throughout the day, urging supporters to stay at polling stations and continue monitoring the counts.
  • The pro-Kurdish party, known as the HDP, took 11.67% of the vote, passing the 10% threshold to enter parliament for a second consecutive term. This makes them the second-largest opposition party and will dilute the majority of Erdoğan’s ruling party, the AKP. But the AKP’s majority will stay in place, after a surprise showing by the AKP’s nationalist allies.

We will continue to monitor the situation in Turkey and the impact of Erdoğan’s new executive powers in the coming weeks and months. Thank you for following along.

Citizen news site, dokuz8 NEWS, reports comments from Ahmet Şık, nominee for the HDP party, that despite the election being held under “unjust conditions” today’s results show “great resistance to an organised crime network”.

The pro-Kurdish HDP party passed the 10% threshold required for parliamentary representation in today’s election, making it the second-largest opposition party in parliament.

Erdoğan has tweeted a video of his balcony speech. It is in Turkish, but gives a good sense of the size and excitement of the crowd who turned out to hear him.

Crowds gathered in Ankara to hear Erdoğan give his victory speech.
Crowds gathered in Ankara to hear Erdoğan give his victory speech. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Huge crowds gathered to celebrate Erdoğan’s victory and hear his speech from the party headquarters in Ankara.

During the address, he spoke of his commitment to “fight terroristic organisations”, “to continue the fight to make the Syrian grounds freer” and to increase the “international prestige” of Turkey.

“Our flag will flutter more freely, the peace of every citizen will be advanced,” he said, before leading the crowd in a chant of “One nation, one flag, one country, one state”.

“For these these four we should be one, we should be awake, we should be fresh, and we should be brothers, and all together we will constitute Turkey.”

Erdoğan said the Turkish people had voted in favour of democracy, “rights and freedoms”, “growth, development, enrichment in all fields”, and “becoming an honourable and strong country in the world”.

He seemed quite moved by the sight of so many chanting supporters, saying: “All the political scientists around the world could work for years, and would still not be able to understand the feelings we are feeling today. I cannot thank my god enough.”

“I hope the results of the election will be beneficial for all our country. I would like to salute you with respect and affection,” then he led the crowd in chanting:

“We shall not stop, we will never stop.”

Erdoğan addresses country in speech from Ankara

Erdoğan has thanked his supporters for their work during the election campaign and declared that the country had voted “not for fights but for service” and was “an example for the rest of the world.”

“We have received the message that has been given to us in the ballot boxes,” he said. “We will fight even more with the strength you provided us with this election.”

Erdoğan, appearing on the balcony of the AK party headquarters in Ankara, appeared to a huge crowd of cheering fans, who were waving flags.

He began by apologising for being late, saying this was due to the fact that a small child was injured in the crowd in Istanbul, where he had been speaking before, and he went to speak to the child’s family, delaying his arrival in Ankara.

Then Erdoğan spoke of his plans for the country, declaring: “Turkey has no moment to waste, we know that.”

Turkey has gone through an examination of democracy again and we can be an example for the rest of the world. For 16 years, Turkey has voted not for fights but for service. The winners of this election are democracy and the politics of service.

Our eyes and ears belong to our nation again, as of tomorrow we will start our new adventure to keep our promises that we have made during the election period.

Updated

Electoral board declares Erdoğan victory

According to the election authority chief, Erdoğan has won Turkey’s presidential poll in the first round.

Updated

Muharrem İnce, the main opposition candidate, has tweeted that he will speak at a news conference at the party’s headquarters in Ankara at midday EEST (10am BST) on the election results.

There are reports that the party’s deputy head Bülent Tezcan has made a U-turn in his opinion on the results, saying: “We’re going to discuss at length our assessment going forward after we get together and we’re going to share that at length. We’re following closely the relationship between the results at the [election board] and the party. It’s still too early to specify an amount of discrepancy between the two.”

Earlier, Tezcan claimed in a live press conference that results coming in from state news agency Anadolu seemed to be off.

Updated

Bloomberg is currently reporting that Halk TV, a Turkish nationwide TV channel, have spoken to the opposition CHP’s candidate Muharrem İnce via WhatsApp. According to the network Ince has said that it was not a fair race, but he acknowledges that Erdoğan has won the election.

Updated

Evening summary

Here’s where things stand right now:

  • Turkey’s Recep Tayyep Erdoğan has claimed victory in his country’s presidential election, but the opposition have not yet conceded defeat.
  • The country’s electoral board (YSK) has not yet announced the official results but according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, with 97% of votes counted Erdoğan is on 52.62% of the national vote with his chief rival, Muharrem Ince of the opposition CHP party, on 30.76%.
  • Shortly before Erdoğan’s statement, CHP MPs held a press conference challenging the provisional results, saying that while the incumbent president was ahead, only 39% of ballot boxes had been opened.
  • The new president is the first to enjoy greatly enhanced powers under a new constitution agreed in an April 2017 referendum.
  • Although Erdoğan’s AKP party looked set to lose its dominance in parliament, with the support of its Nationalist Movement party (MHP) allies it should retain an overall parliamentary majority.
  • The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) scored 11%, well over the 10% minimum threshold it needed to enter parliament, and will hold 46 seats – making it the second largest opposition party in the new chamber.

Updated

A reminder that we are still awaiting official results, and the opposition CHP party has not conceded defeat:

Ince – who in the past has won elections on a recount – has yet to comment:

Updated

Here is Agence-France Presse’s first take on Erdoğan’s victory declaration:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday declared victory in a tightly-contested presidential election, extending his 15-year grip on power in the face of a revitalised opposition.

Turkish voters had for the first time cast ballots for both president and parliament in the snap polls, with Erdoğan looking for a first round knockout and an overall majority for his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The stakes in this election are particularly high as the new president is the first to enjoy enhanced powers under a new constitution agreed in an April 2017 referendum strongly backed by Erdoğan.

“The unofficial results of the elections have become clear. According to these... I have been entrusted by the nation with the task and duties of the presidency,” Erdogan said at his Istanbul residence.

He added that the alliance led by the AKP had won the majority in parliament.

Erdogan has just under 53% in the presidential poll while Ince, of the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), was on 31%, state-run Anadolu news agency said, based on a 96% vote count.

The figures could yet change as final ballot boxes are opened. But celebrations were already beginning outside Erdogan’s residence in Istanbul and AKP headquarters in Ankara, with crowds of flag-waving supporters, AFP correspondents said.

A count of almost over 95% for the parliamentary election also showed that Erdogan’s AKP - along with its Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) allies - were well ahead and set for an overall majority.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) was polling 11%, well over the 10 percent minimum threshold needed to win 46 seats, which would make it the second largest opposition party in the new chamber.

Updated

Kareem Shaheen has this update:

Erdoğan just gave a press conference, confirming a record close to 90% turnout in what he described as a “lesson in democracy” and essentially declaring victory.

He praises electoral commissions and election observers, and mentions “brotherly” countries that have congratulated Turkey on the vote.

A confident sounding Erdoğan listed a series of grand projects that Turkey will continue with under the new presidential system, and to continue pursuing an independent path for Turkey.

He pledged to continue the fight, and was greeted with a round of applause, apparently by the assembled media attending the presser.

Still, this is much more subdued than the victory balcony speech he was expected to give.

Erdogan claims victory

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has claimed victory in his country’s presidential election.

“The Turkish public has mandated me as president according to unofficial results,” Erdoğan said. “I hope nobody will damage democracy by casting a shadow on this election and its results to hide their failure.”

The state-run Anadolu Agency reports that with 95.5% of votes counted, Erdoğan had won a 52.72% share of the national vote, with the leading opposition CHP party’s candidate, Muharrem Ince, on 30.75%.

Senior CHP MPs insisted at a press conference just before Erdoğan’s statement that not all ballots have yet been counted and when they had been, a second round run-off would follow next month.

Updated

We are no closer to a confirmed result.

The opposition CHP party insists Erdoğan has not won outright and will have to go to a run-off; the president’s supporters are already celebrating his win.

This form the BBC’s Seref Isler:

Having climbed rapidly all afternoon and evening, the official Anadolu Agency results feed has been stuck for some time now on 94% of ballots counted:

  • Erdoğan is on 52.85%
  • İnce is on 30.66%

The Guardian’s Kareem Shaheen has more:

CHP MPs just held a press conference in which they challenged the election results, saying they would continue working through the night to monitor the counting of the votes.

According to them, so far Erdoğan is leading with 51.7% of the vote and Ince at 33.6% - but with just 39% of ballot boxes opened.

With millions of votes to be counted, I can hear AKP voters celebrating and honking cars in the streets anyway. It’s going to be a long night.

Updated

This from Bloomberg’s Turkey bureau chief:

Leading CHP MPs have said there is a big difference between the number of ballot boxes that have been opened, and the number of votes counted and actually entered into the electoral board’s computer system.

Izmir MP Mustafa Balbay insisted:

Don’t believe the figures you see on the TV screens, even if the number of boxes opened reaches 100%. It’s vital that we see the number of valid votes.

It’s all looking a bit messy. Turkey’s international TV network is calling it for Erdoğan, but no official announcement has been made yet by the electoral board and the opposition claim less than half the votes have been counted.

The official state-run Anadolu Agency and the independent network of monitors Fair Elections both now put Erdoğan in the lead, and on more than the 50% of the national vote needed for outright victory, according to BBC Turkish service’s figures.

However, AA reckoned 86.5% of votes have been counted, while Free Elections put the tally at 43.3%.

Meanwhile, the Anadolu Agency is reporting that 88.9% of votes have been counted and the leading contenders in the presidential race are on:

  • Erdoğan: 53.45%
  • İnce: 30.34%

Things could take an unpleasant turn here.

The leading opposition candidate, Muharrem Ince, has tweeted to say that according to the official electoral board, only 37% of the vote has been counted – while the official Anadolu Agency is reporting that 85% have been opened.

He asks all observers not to leave the polling stations until counting is fully complete.

Erdoğan seems to be preparing for a victory speech:

One strongman congratulates another ... Hungary’s Viktor Orban is the first to call and congratulate Erdoğan on an election win that is, as yet, unconfirmed, reports the state-run Anadolu Agency:

Ah.

The state-run Anadolu Agency results page appears to be down ...

It’s not working for Kareem Shaheen either:

Updated

The Economist’s Turkey correspondent points up the unexpectedly strong performance of the Nationalist Movement (MHP) party, which ran in the parliamentary election in an alliance with Erdoğan’s Islamist-rooted AKP:

This could mean the AKP holds on to his parliamentary majority thanks to his coalition partner:

Updated

Pro-Kurdish HDP to enter parliament

The state-run Anadolu Agency has confirmed that the pro-Kurdish HDP party has passed the 10% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

With 69% of votes counted, the party is at 10.4% of the vote.

In theory, this could well be enough to deprive the president’s AKP party of its parliamentary majority, although 30% of ballots remain to be counted.

Updated

Meanwhile, in the parliamentary poll, the pro-Kurdish HDP party is agonisingly close to achieving the 10% minimum of the national vote it requires for parliamentary representation - almost certainly depriving Erdoğan’s AKP party of its majority:

The BBC Turkish service has produced another graphic of the difference between the official, state-run Anadolu Agency’s results and those counted by the independent Fair Elections platform.

The difference is striking: with 65% of votes counted, AA has Erdoğan on 55.5% and Ince on 29.2%, against 43.5% and 33.9% respectively for Fair Elections:

With very nearly 70% of the vote counted, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, the two leading contenders in the presidential race stands as follows:

  • Erdoğan: 55.21%
  • İnce: 29.33%

It’s clear that Erdoğan’s lead is shrinking – but whether it is shrinking fast enough to dip below the 50% needed for an outright first-round win and avoid a run-off by the time the count reaches 100% is still unclear.

Updated

And here is the alternative, independent vote count based on actual votes:

Discrepancies could clearly prove a problem:

Updated

With nearly 60% of votes counted, the presidential race stands as follows:

  • Erdoğan: 55.93%
  • İnce: 28.93.%

According to the state-run Anadolu Agency.

This could be very significant: if the pro-Kurdish HDP does pass the 10% threshold, it will be almost impossible for Erdoğan’s AKP to hold onto its parliamentary majority.

However, only 34% of ballots have so far been counted in the parliamentary vote. Early days yet.

Updated

And Muharrem Ince, the leading opposition candidate, weighs in with his criticism of the state-run news agency, too:

Anadolu Agency is conducting manipulation, they are primarily showing the results of the ballot boxes where Erdogan is ahead. Do not get demoralised and leave the ballot boxes.

The BBC’s Turkish service correspondent highlights the difference in the provisional tallies being reported by Anadolu and independent monitors as the number of votes counted approaches 50%:

A reminder of how the official state-run Anadolu news agency has tended to skew early results reporting in past elections.

According to the agency’s critics, it does this in order to discourage opposition activists so they abandon their observation posts at polling stations ...

The citizen journalist news agency dokuz8 is reporting that the main opposition CHP party is confident its candidate Muharrem Ince will finish very close indeed to Erdoğan, and in any case force a run-off round next month:

Once again, with fewer than 40% of votes counted the figures so far are no indication of the final outcome.

A handy reminder of what to watch out for when the results start to get more meaningful (generally once more than 70% of votes are counted):

With 32% of votes counted in the presidential poll, according to the official state-run Anadolu Agency, Erdoğan is on 57.73% and Ince on 27.79%.

To put things in perspective, in last year’s constitutional reform referendum, the president’s “yes” camp was on 61.8% of the vote with 31% of ballots counted. Three hours later, with 97% counted, his support had dwindled to 51.4%.

Turnout tops 87%

Voter turnout is an incredible 87% (87.19% in presidential, 87.04% in parliamentary), reports Kareem Shaheen in Istanbul.

Updated

Warnings are coming in thick and fast that the result could be very close indeed:

Voting appears to be going very fast, particularly in the presidential poll. We are currently at around 25% of votes counted – reasonably firm conclusions can be drawn when the count hits around 70%, observers reckon, which could be in less than an hour:

Bloomberg’s Benjamin Harvey reports that heavy trucks have rolled in to protect the presidential palace in Ankara – perhaps a sign that Erdoğan is not feeling altogether as confident as he might be?

Erdoğan ahead in early counting

Early results with around 16% of votes counted are putting Erdoğan at 60% in the presidential poll. But as seasoned Ankara reporter Diego Cupolo points out, that number will inevitably come down:

Kareem Shaheen writes that initial results - partial, of course, and very early – will start being reported very soon now since the election board has lifted its reporting ban:

The supreme election board (YSK) in Turkey has announced it will lift the news ban on early election results at 6:45 pm Turkey time, which is in three mins. So expect results to start coming in right away.

Another startling image of just how determined many Turkish voters were to make it to the ballot box today:

Updated

Muharrem Ince, the candidate for the leading opposition Republican People’s party, has called on citizens “to not abandon the ballot boxes” without signed results and asked people to go to their district electoral committees to monitor.

Ince, who has mounted an unexpectedly strong challenge to Erdoğan in the later stages of the campaign, has been warning of voting irregularities and undue pressures on civil servants. Election council members should do their jobs without fear and “abiding by law”, he said.

Within an hour of the polls closing, the opposition’s presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince, says he has started getting early unofficial results – and he’s not unhappy. “I’m smiling,” he said, according to the T24 news site.

The Guardian’s Helena Smith is in Cyprus, where Turkish Cypriots – Muslims who pride themselves on their liberal leanings – are watching the elections keenly, and among those outside Turkey most likely to feel the full force of the poll’s outcome.

“Enough with Erdogan!” snapped Mehmet Parlan, an antiquarian by trade who is also running as a local councillor in Nicosia, the island’s war-partitioned capital. “We don’t want him, he is an out-and-out dictator, just his name is enough to make most Turkish Cypriots very unhappy. ”

Echoing the concerns, Sedat Mete, who was brought to the island by his Kurdish settler parents 28 years ago, said he had voted for Muharrem Ince, the man who has emerged as Erdogan’s main challenger when native Turks on the island cast ballots last week.

“He has been in power for 16 years and his policies have had a big effect on Cyprus. There are mosques everywhere! It’s time for a change,” smiled the former professional football posing for a photograph outside his clothes store. “I also voted for HDP, the pro-Kurdish party in the hope it will deprive the AKP of a majority.”

In their breakaway state, recognised only by Turkey, ethnic Turks on Cyprus depend to great degree on the largesse of Ankara. Turkey provides aid, vital infrastructure assistance and helps bankroll the budget.

But Erdogan’s neo-Islamist AKP party is also being seen as a threat to a cherished lifestyle by a Muslim populace who are not adverse to alcohol, rarely visit a mosque and abhor the headscarf. In recent years mosques and religious schools have proliferation across the statelet.

“No Erdogan! No Erdogan!,” said Daria Dinc, working at the till of a shop in Nicosia. “He’d put us all in headscarves.”

Updated

Who holds the majority in Turkey’s 600-seat parliament will therefore be key.

Eight parties are running in the parliamentary elections under a new system that allows them to form alliances for the first time, with allied parties able to bypass the minimum 10% threshold required for a single party to enter parliament.

In the “People Alliance,” Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party (AKP) is joined by the Nationalist Movement party (MHP) and backed by the small far-right Great Unity party (BBP).

The “Nation Alliance” consists of the secular Republican People’s party (CHP), the nascent nationalist Good party (İYİ ) and the small, Islamic-leaning Felicity party (Saadet). Supporting that alliance is the small, centre-right Democrat party (DP).

The pro-Kurdish liberal Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) has been left out of the opposition alliance and will have to pass the 10% threshold alone. Whether or not it does could prove critical to Erdoğan’s chances of controlling parliament.

Updated

Whoever wins, these elections put into effect constitutional amendments narrowly approved in a contentious referendum last year that will transform Turkey’s parliamentary governing system into an executive presidency.

The position of prime minister will be abolished and the president will take over the executive branch, forming the new government, appointing ministers and high-level bureaucrats, issuing decrees, preparing the budget and deciding on security policy.

He will also have the power to dissolve parliament by calling for early elections, but that would also shorten his or her term. Parliament will propose laws and have the power to ratify or reject the president’s budget or move for new dual elections.

Erdoğan and his allies argue the executive presidency will make Turkey more stable by removing a “double-headed system.” Critics say it will lead to “one-man rule” if Erdogan and his party win both presidential and parliamentary elections.

Updated

A reminder that five candidates are running against Erdoğan for the five-year presidency. The former Istanbul mayor, who became prime minister in 2003 and Turkey’s first directly elected president in 2014, is of course favourite.

A candidate who secures more than 50% of the vote wins outright; failing that, a second round will take place on 8 July 8 between the two leading contenders.

The main challenge to Erdogan comes from a dynamic and unexpectedly popular former physics teacher, Muharrem Ince, who was nominated by the leading opposition party CHP and could be a real threat to Turkey’s strongman.

Also running are Meral Aksener, a former interior minister, and Selahattin Demirtas, a pro-Kurdish human rights lawyer, who is leading his campaign via social media from jail where he’s been held in pre-trial detention on alleged terror charges since 2016.

Two fringe candidates far-left politician Dogu Perincek and the Islamic-oriented Temel Karamollaoglu are not expected to earn serious support.

Updated

Authorities have launched investigations into 10 foreign nationals in the country’s predominantly Kurdish regions, the official Anadolu Agency has reported, citing interior ministry officials.

The agency said the foreigners, who include three French citizens in eastern Agri province and three Germans and four Italians in the southeastern provinces of Sirnak, Batman and Diyarbakir, tried to “interfere” in the elections by posing as accredited observers.

The Agri governor’s office said the French nationals were speaking to voters regarding the elections but were not on the official OSCE accredited monitor list. They were brought to law enforcement to be “interviewed”.

The French Communist party said a Communist senator, Christine Prunaud, was among those detained. “Turkish authorities want to snuff out any criticism of the massive fraud underway,” the party said in a statement.

Updated

Kareem Shaheen reports from the Cihangir polling station he visited this afternoon:

In the liberal neighbourhood of Cihangir, voters said they were there to cast their vote against what they described as one-man rule. They said they were happy to take part in a democratic tradition in what may be the most important election in their lifetime.

Fulya, a 39 year old voter with breathing difficulties who cast her ballot while her friend carried her oxygen tank, said she was against the new extraordinary presidential powers that President Erdoğan will wield if he wins, and which were narrowly approved in a referendum last year.

“We want the parliamentary system back, we are against one man rule and everyone has to be represented,” she said. “I especially wanted to vote in this election because a candidate [Demirtas] is in prison as a political hostage.”

Her friend Hakan, 45, said he was there to vote “against tyranny.” “For almost 10 years I was not optimistic,” he added. “This is the first time.”

Resit, a 93 year old man, visited the voting centre with his daughter holding his arm as he descended the stairs to the polling station to vote for opposition candidate Muharrem Ince. “It is our duty to vote,” they said.

Seyda, a 38 year old voter, didn’t say who she would vote for but brought her 6 year old to witness the scene. “They are the future of this country,” she said. “Everything isn’t a rose garden, they have to see the reality.”

In early reports of isolated election violence, four people appear to have been killed in the province of Erzurum in a fight at a polling station, Kareem Shaheen reports, including the local head of the nationalist Iyi party and other cadres.

The deaths were confirmed by Mustafa Guldogan, a party official.

Four people have also been arrested in Suruc over vote-rigging allegations. The CHP party of Erdogan’s main presidential challenger, Muharrem Ince, said party officials had confirmed cases of inconsistencies in the Sanliurfa province.

“From Sanliurfa, there have been many complaints,” spokesman Bulent Tezcan told reporters in Ankara. “Our colleagues intervened where (the issues) occurred.” He said complaints had been made to neighbourhood election committee and officials had approached the Higher Election Board (YSK).

Updated

Polls close

It is just past 5pm in Turkey and polls have closed in the country’s snap parliamentary and presidential elections.

Counting will now get underway.

The electoral commission bans any reporting on the count until 9pm local time to make sure that voting in every polling station is well and truly finished, but it can – and almost invariably does – bring that time forward once it is sure everyone who queued to vote has cast their ballot.

Updated

Kareem Shaheen has been tweeting some evocative pictures of voters he spoke to at an polling station in Cihangir, Istanbul as polls draw to close:

Updated

Polls close in about 10 minutes. Votes in the country’s 188,000 ballot boxes will then be counted, individually and aloud and in the presence of observers, before an official declaration for that box is drawn up and witnessed.

The boxes are then resealed, with the ballots inside, and carried to regional counting centres where they are repoened, reocunted, and the results fed into the electoral commission’s computer system.

The fact that voters are casting their ballots in two elections is inevitably likely to slow the process, but initial results are nonetheless expected within three to four hours and an official outcome before midnight.

Updated

Turnout for the dual high-stakes election is forecast to be exceptionally high. Anecdotal evidence seems to be bearing that out:

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has deployed 22 long-term and 350 short-term observers for the elections amid fears among opposition leaders that recent changes to electoral procedures could lead to voter fraud.

Peter Osusky, head of monitoring delegation, told AP all observers “are strongly adhering to so-called code of conduct” regardless of their political opinions.

Turkey has nonetheless denied entry to Andrej Hunko of Germany’s Left Party and Jabar Amin of Sweden’s small Environment Party “based on their publicly expressed political opinion”, he said.

Turks abroad are expected to leave their mark on the elections this year, with an unprecedented 1.49 million voters casting their ballots over a 13 day period earlier this month, Kareem Shaheen reports.

Turnout for Turks in Europe in particular is crucial for the president, who commands great support among the diaspora there.

Erdoğan and the AKP, however, were barred from conducting rallies in European countries like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands with large Turkish populations. Before last year’s referendum, both sides exchanged vitriolic insults and relations between Ankara and the EU have been generally miserable for years.

Erdoğan was able to conduct one rally in Sarajevo that was attended by Turks living in other parts of Europe.

One of the most eagerly-awaited results this evening will be whether the pro-Kurdish HDP party succeeds in winning more than 10% of the national vote. If it does, it could deprive Erdoğan’s AKP of a majority in parliament.

Some Kurdish villagers are having to walk a considerable distance to cast their ballots at polling stations that the government says have had to be relocated for security reasons – but they seem prepared to make the effort.

Citing security, authorities moved and merged thousands of ballot boxes in Kurdish areas, affecting some 144,000 voters and forcing many to cross military checkpoints to reach polling stations.

Updated

Growing allegations of election fraud are emerging from Sanliurfa, particularly the town of Suruc and nearby villages, Kareem Shaheen reports.

These include attempts to stuff ballots, voters casting ballots on behalf of relatives and women, open voting and intimidation.

Election observers with the opposition have been evicted from polling centres as well.

Suruc was the scene of the only deadly incident in the run up to the election, when four people were killed - local shop owners and relatives of a ruling party MP.

Urfa has a large Kurdish population and has generally voted for Erdoğan’s AKP, but the HDP made inroads there in recent elections.

Updated

The Guardian’s Istanbul correspondent, Kareem Shaheen, is at one of the polling stations in Kasimpasa, the Istanbul neighborhood where President Erdoğan grew up.

“I voted for Tayyip Erdoğan,” said Yaşar Ayhan, 52, a former barber of the president when he was mayor of Istanbul. “We are proud of him. He’s not only a leader, but a world leader.”

Supporters of the president have often pointed to his championing of Muslim causes, such as Jerusalem and the opposition in Syria, as one of the reasons why they admire his role on the global stage.

“He delivers on what he says, and is trustworthy and just,” said Ayhan. “He is gentle but tough on the enemies of Turkey.”

Recep, a 37 year old voter, said he also voted for President Erdoğan because the Turkish leader hailed from the same district as he did, but he cast his vote in the parliamentary elections for the Islamist Saadet party, which has campaigned strongly on fixing the economy.

“I believe AKP parliamentarians aren’t efficient because of corruption,” he said.
When president Erdoğan called for early elections, many observers believed he did it to preempt an economic slump in the coming months.

Mismanagement of the economy, amid worries of overheating, a widening foreign trade deficit and the rapid fall in value of the Turkish lira were a backdrop to the vote run-up.

But the parallel elections for the 600-seat parliament could have a major impact. Eight parties are competing in alliances for the first time, allowing smaller ones to bypass the the minimum 10% threshold for seats in parliament.

Much will depend on whether whether the anti-Erdoğan, pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) wins more than 10% of the national vote, allowing it to remain in parliament and reducing the AKP’s chances of an outright majority.

The elections take place against the backdrop of an ailing economy – the Turkish lira has lost 20% of its value against the dollar, and inflation is running at 12%.

And don’t forget the country remains in a state of emergency introduced after a failed coup against Erdoğan’s regime in July 2016 that has seen 107,000 public servants and soldiers sacked and more than 50,000 people have been imprisoned pending trial.

Polls suggest Erdoğan could fail to reach the 50% threshold required for an outright win in the presidential vote.

In a field of six candidates, he faces unexpectedly stiff opposition from former physics teacher Muharrem Ince of the social democrat Republican People’s party (CHP), who could prove a real threat in an eventual run-off on 6 July.

If he is re-elected, however, Erdoğan’s hold on power will be greatly enhanced.

Last year’s referendum transformed Turkey’s parliamentary system of government into an executive presidency presidency, with the position of prime minister abolished and the head of state able to directly appoint top public officials, including ministers, and intervene in the legal system.

Erdoğan voted earlier this afternoon in Istanbul, telling reporters that Turkey was experiencing a “democratic revolution” and that turnout looked like it would be high - maybe over 85%.

“Some of the most developed countries have a turnout of only around 30 percent,” he said, adding modestly that Turkey’s transition to an executive presidency system would raise the country “beyond the level of contemporary civilisations”.

He said he planned to watch the early results announcements in Istanbul before moving on to Ankara at the end of the evening.

Updated

Good afternoon and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Turkey’s historic, high-stakes snap double election to decide both the presidency and the parliament.

More than 59 million Turkish voters have been voting since 6am this morning at over 180,000 polling stations that will close in about an hour’s time.

The results, expected later today, could – assuming he wins the presidential poll –dramatically strengthen Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s hold on power, giving him sweeping new executive powers approved in a referendum last year.

But if his ruling Islamist-rooted Justice and Development party (AKP) loses its majority in parliament, Erdoğan – a former mayor of Istanbul who has never been defeated in an election – could find his political ambitions significantly curtailed.

We’ll be bringing you news, views, results and analysis throughout the day, including reports from the Guardian’s Turkey correspondent Kareem Shaheen in Istanbul – follow him on Twitter here.

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