Turkey’s election has resulted in a hung parliament. Since 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party (AKP) had always won outright. This year, however, the party lost its parliamentary majority and its share of the vote fell to its lowest level in 13 years. We are in uncharted waters, and it is difficult to anticipate what the next steps will be.
Here’s what might happen:
Once the president gives the mandate to form a government – which all but certainly will be given first to the prime minister and AKP leader, Ahmet Davutoğlu, – the mandatee will have 45 days to form a government.
Erdoğan has recognised no single party won a mandate to govern alone in Sunday’s election. His tone was unusually conciliatory, but also grounded in the simple truth that any government would need to win a confidence vote in parliament – and based on provisional results, the AKP is 17 short of a majority.
Initial reports in Turkey suggest the AKP would prefer a coalition government to a return to the polls. But any deal is difficult as the parties have less in common than not.
That said, in terms of potential deals – on paper at least – the AKP could work with the Nationalist Movement party (MHP). Although, due to the MHP’s hostility towards Kurdish issues, any deal would risk jeopardising Erdoğan’s pursuit (and progress) of a peace deal with Kurdish rebels.
A second (also theoretical) possibility is an agreement with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP), which passed the 10% threshold to enter parliament – thus denying the AKP a majority – . and became the election’s biggest winners. The AKP has been more sympathetic to Kurdish demands compared with other parties and previous governments. However, the HDP has been extremely critical of Erdoğan’s meddling in governmental affairs, authoritarian tendencies, and his most recent aspiration of increasing presidential powers. But the MHP and the HDP have ruled out a coalition with the AKP.
Another option for the party would be to try to form a minority government and, assuming it can win a vote of confidence, to then seek deals on an ad hoc basis. Such a government would most probably have a limited shelf-life before elections were called again.
But if the opposition parties hold their ground and no type of agreement is reached within the necessary 45 days, then elections might be the only option. These would be called by the supreme election board in two months.
A grand coalition between the AKP and the the main opposition party, the Kemalist Republican People’s party (CHP) is highly unlikely, as is the possibility of an agreement between all opposition parties (the CHP, MHP and HDP) due to the strife between the nationalist party and Turkey’s Kurdish population.
