Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu appear to be headed to a runoff as preliminary results show neither candidate reaching the majority of votes needed to win Sunday's election outright.
Why it matters: Many analysts see an expected head-to-head contest between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu as a hinge point for democracy in Turkey.
By the numbers: With more than 98% of the ballots counted, Erdoğan led with about 49.3% of the vote, while Kılıçdaroğlu had about 45, according to the running tally from the Anadolu state news agency.
- Early batches of results had shown Erdoğan well above 50% and more than 10 points ahead of Kılıçdaroğlu.
- Some opposition politicians claimed state media had intentionally reported bastions of Erdoğan support first to skew the narrative, while Kılıçdaroğlu tweeted that the opposition was actually ahead.
- The returns have narrowed considerably, but Erdoğan significantly outperformed the pre-election polls, most of which gave Kılıçdaroğlu a narrow lead.
What they're saying: Erdoğan in a speech early Monday local time said he believes he can still get above the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff, but "if our nation has chosen for a second round, that is also welcome."
- Kılıçdaroğlu, meanwhile, said that “we will absolutely win the second round ... and bring democracy.”
The big picture: This was expected to be the toughest election of Erdoğan's 20 years in power.
- It came during an economic crisis arguably exacerbated by Erdoğan's unorthodox monetary policy, and after a devastating earthquake in which his government's response was widely criticized.
- Erdoğan remains a hero to his loyal base of more conservative and religious Turks, though his critics accuse him of eroding democracy, punishing dissent and centralizing power in his own hands.
The other side: Kılıçdaroğlu, a mild-mannered former bureaucrat, presents himself as a bridge-builder who will serve just one term and oversee constitutional reforms to restore a parliamentary system. Analysts expect warmer ties with NATO and the U.S. if he is elected.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.
