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The Guardian - UK

Oliver Burkeman

Tuesday polls update

National daily tracking polls
Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44% (both down one point from yesterday)
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (no change from yesterday)

New battleground state polls
A new Washington Post poll puts Obama ahead in Virginia, but Rasmussen finds McCain has regained his small lead there. Rasmussen also finds McCain holding on to a modest lead in Ohio, but losing his lead to Obama in Pennsylvania.

Electoral college
Based on the most recent state polls, Electoral-vote.com predicts an Obama victory, 273 votes to 265.

Intrade prediction market
Obama to win: 50.4% chance (down 1.6% from yesterday)
McCain to win: 48% chance (up 1.2% from yesterday)

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