Good morning. After Reform UK’s resounding success in last week’s local elections, Keir Starmer has faced relentless questions over how Labour will change tack to deal with the problem. Now, we may have the beginning of an answer.
On the front page of today’s Guardian, Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot report that Downing Street is seriously rethinking the cuts to the winter fuel payment – the policy that above all others summarised Starmer and Rachel Reeves’s shaky start to life in government. While a full reversal is not on the cards, No 10 sources say that the £11,500 threshold over which pensioners are no longer eligible for the allowance could be increased in the autumn.
Until very recently, ministers have insisted that no such change has been contemplated. But as always in politics, nothing changes until it does. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Jessica Elgot about the rationale behind the contemplated change – and whether it represents the start to a new agenda for the government, and a meaningful response to the threat from Nigel Farage. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Israel-Gaza war | Israel is to expand its military operations in Gaza in the coming weeks, with the aim of “conquering” and establishing a “sustained presence” in the Palestinian territory, Israeli officials have said.
Film | Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on movies made outside the US could wipe out the UK film industry, ministers have been warned, as they came under immediate pressure to prioritise the issue in trade talks with the White House.
Charities | Macmillan Cancer Support is to scrap its £14m-a-year specialist advice service, which helps tens of thousands of people every year, in what has been described as a betrayal of vulnerable patients. With the charity’s income falling behind its expenditure, it said that the service was no longer sustainable.
Wildfires | After the warmest start to May on record, a wildfire has destroyed about 5,000 hectares (12,500 acres) of moorland on Dartmoor in Devon. Emergency services were called to the blaze at about 2.25pm on Sunday, and firefighters spent almost 24 hours at the scene before it was extinguished on Monday.
VE Day | The UK marked the 80th anniversary of VE Day with military pomp before large crowds who had gathered in central London. The royal family and war veterans were among the attendees at a 1,300-strong military procession while street parties were held around the UK.
In depth: ‘It feels as if we’re reaching a tipping point’
The winter fuel payment cut returned some money to the government’s coffers at the expense of a group that fared relatively well during the austerity era – but it came at a significant cost. About a million pensioner families who are among the poorest fifth of UK households lost the payment; more than 70% of disabled pensioners were affected. Now, the government is weighing a partial reversal in the hope of mitigating the impact of an attack that remains as forceful today as when the change was made.
“There’s sometimes a moment in politics where you from thinking it’s too late to do something, and you’ve missed the chance, to thinking … actually, you’ve got to do it,” Jessica Elgot said. “It feels as if we’re reaching that tipping point.”
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What impact is the government hoping for politically?
If Labour does press ahead with the plan, the calculation will be that the negative coverage for making a partial U-turn will be more than balanced by the removal of one of the cudgels that opponents most like to hit the party with.
“There is a generally accepted view in No 10 that the winter fuel allowance decision was a mistake,” Jessica said. “I don’t know if that is the view in the Treasury. But the feeling is that it shut down the chance to tell a more positive economic story, and became the first thing people associate with a new Labour government.”
All that pain came for relatively little gain: the government hoped it would save about £1.4bn a year, a relatively small slice of the £22bn “black hole” Rachel Reeves accused the Tories of leaving in the public finances. Analysis by the Observer in September suggested that, in the first year, this might have been an overestimate of up to £700m because of a rapid increase in applications before the benefit expired.
“Reform voters are economically leftwing,” Jessica said. “They tend to support nationalising utilities, protecting British companies from foreign ownership, and above all they’re worried about the cost of living because they are often living in precarious circumstances.”
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What kind of pressure has the government faced?
In the days since the local election results, the mood among Labour MPs – particularly those who are concerned about a challenge from Reform at the next election – has worsened: not mutinous, quite, but certainly audibly anxious. An intervention by Louise Haigh in yesterday’s Guardian, and in a column in the Times, was the most prominent example of a backbencher voicing reservations about the government’s approach.
Haigh’s cautioning against a “simplistic and naive” lurch to the right was significant partly because of her status as a former – albeit sacked – member of the cabinet. But it also had weight because she hails from the so-called “soft left” of the party, a faction quite distinct from the Corbynite wing and that Starmer would hope to be able to rely on.
“They were the core of Starmer’s support in the leadership election, although Haigh herself supported Lisa Nandy,” Jessica said. “She is speaking in line with the kind of concerns that most in the mainstream of the party have. They don’t like the culture wars stuff, or the immigration language, though they may be able to put up with it. But what they really talk about is the lack of an economic strategy they can sell to voters.
“The mood is not just in the parliamentary Labour party, but in the cabinet as well. It’s not just about the winter fuel allowance – it’s about the sense that they urgently need to start telling a different economic story.” That urgency may not be fully reflected in the fact that if a change does happen, it will come until after the summer.
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What other options does Starmer have?
What Labour wanted to talk about this morning was a more modest policy announcement: a promise of 8.3m additional GP appointments this year, paid for from the increase to employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) in the last budget.
“It’s an attempt to show they’re delivering on one of the classic issues that people feel has a tangible effect in their lives,” Jessica said. “And by linking it to NICs, they’re trying to show that tax rises actually have an impact. That maybe starts to lay the groundwork for further tax rises in the autumn.” The need to link tax increases to tangible benefits may also explain the timing of potential change to the winter fuel payment.
Some in the socially conservative “Blue Labour” faction want the party to double down on its rhetoric and policy on immigration – and the Times reports today that the immigration white paper, due to be published next week, will include new restrictions for visa on countries whose citizens are most likely to overstay and claim asylum.
But there may be a question about how much further to the right Labour can go without alienating even the more moderate members of its coalition, let alone the left. “The danger is that they find themselves in the same place Rishi Sunak did, where you keep saying ‘stop the boats’, but you don’t,” Jessica said. “That is corrosive for trust, and it arguably only hardens the anger against them.”
The government could theoretically reverse course on its controversial cut to incapacity and disability benefits. That looks very unlikely, not least because it’s worth a lot more money. But many Labour MPs say that this is the other big issue that they hear about from voters.
“It causes them the same electoral terror,” Jessica said. “In some Labour constituencies, as many as one in six adults are on Pip, and there are all the people with a family member or friend who rely on it.” The numbers are especially high in constituencies where Reform finished second in 2025.
The really nuclear option would be for Starmer to sack Rachel Reeves – widely seen as the architect of the winter fuel payment policy, and ultimately responsible for Labour’s economic strategy. “That’s another question,” said Jessica. “Nobody in the party is going as far as saying that they can only make progress if she goes.”
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Will any of this blunt Reform’s attacks?
One of the great problems for Labour, as for any government, is how to get credit with the voters for the changes it makes. “There’s a lot of polling evidence of how little credit the government gets for things like building new hospitals in local areas – people tend to credit the council or the local community,” Jessica said.
That is partly why the sternest of Starmer’s critics argue that individual policy shifts are not enough to take on the threat from Reform, which is capitalising on a long-term mood of pessimism after years of decline in public services and living standards. Instead, they say, Starmer needs to get on the front foot with a more compelling argument: not just what Labour is doing more effectively, but who it is doing it for – and, by the same token, at whose cost.
“There has been a recognition since Starmer became leader that he needed a big narrative, and he has never quite managed to find one,” Jessica said. “I don’t know how many times it’s been written that he can’t quite articulate his vision. Yes, they won a massive landslide, but there’s an argument that this is why things are so difficult now: because they don’t have that solid base to grow from, a definition of what Starmerism means.”
What else we’ve been reading
Some agreeably wacky looks in this picture gallery from the Met Gala. Special congratulations to André 3000 for coming with a little piano on his back. Archie
It’s not just Labour struggling with the threat of Reform. Former minister Justine Greening thinks the Conservative party as we know it is dead – and will be so long as it tries to “out-Reform Reform”. “All that the present generation of leadership can do is to own up to their abject failure,” she writes in this column. Charlie Lindlar, acting deputy editor, newsletters
Amid relentless coverage of the legal fight between Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni, one surprising group has tuned in with alacrity: rightwing political influencers. Steve Rose has a great piece about why they’ve turned on Lively, and why they’ve decided to care. Archie
Michael Hogan’s terrific list of the top 20 medical dramas could only ever have one winner. But what justice for the recently departed Doctors? Charlie
Pop culture site the Ringer kicks off its “millennial week” with a painfully true taxonomy of the millennial experience from the peerless Brian Phillips. (He notes, correctly, that we all say “I feel like” rather than “I think”.) Charlie
Sport
Football | Murillo’s deflection secured a 1-1 draw for Nottingham Forest that could be crucial in the battle for Champions League places. The equaliser came after Eberechi Eze’s penalty put Crystal Palace in front.
Snooker | Zhao Xintong beat Mark Williams 18-12 to become China’s first winner of the World Snooker Championship.
Football | Trent Alexander-Arnold has announced he is leaving Liverpool when his contract expires at the end of the season, paving the way for a free transfer to Real Madrid. The 26-year-old informed the Liverpool head coach, Arne Slot, that he would not be signing a contract extension at the end of March.
The front pages
The Guardian splashes on “No 10 to rethink fuel payment cut as local election losses alarm MPs”. “Visa curbs on nations said to hike asylum bill” – the Times says Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka face restrictions. “PM prepares for attack by Russia” – war plans are being updated, reports the Telegraph. The i has “Thousands of jobs at risk as Trump threatens 100% tariff on UK film and TV industry”, and the Financial Times goes with “Macron condemns Trump’s assault on universities as Europe lures scientists”. “Send us victorious” is how the Metro headlines a VE Day picture, and other examples include “A day to remember” and “Thank you” on the covers of the Mirror and Mail respectively. The Express is very wordy, but fittingly so, as it reprints the famed Churchill quote ending in “Do not despair”.
Today in Focus
The Zelenskyy-Trump deal
Is the mineral deal between Ukraine and the US a win-win? Andrew Roth reports
Cartoon of the day | Rebecca Hendin
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Can a plank a day make you fit? Emily Bratt, who “had more in common with a pair of old socks than with gym-goers”, decided to give it a try after she realising she had set the bar too high to work out. That year-long membership at a gym? Mostly unused.
So she decided to ditch fad-exercising and simply do a single 40-second plank, every day for a week. “Just to see,” she writes in the series The one change that worked. Her success at it had a domino effect, building her physical strength and giving her motivation to take up swimming again. Five years on, she has quit smoking, her mental health has improved and she eats more healthily. And yes, she still planks, “for fear of losing my streak”.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
