True Move H Universal Communication (TUC) and Advanced Wireless Network (AWN) are the likeliest operators to acquire 700-megahertz spectrum licences when they are available for sale in June, says a telecom analyst at Kasikorn Securities.
TUC, a subsidiary of True Corp, is expected to buy a licence in exchange for a delay in the last payment of the 900MHz licences due in 2020 for an additional five years. AWN would be more interested in the 700MHz licence to maintain its leading position, said Pisut Ngamvijitvong, senior analyst at KS.
The three mobile phone operators -- TUC, AWN and DTAC Trinet -- all submitted requests to the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission to postpone their last payment term for the 900MHz band, as allowed by Section 44. But they must participate in the 700MHz auction to be eligible for the payment delay.
Through the use of Section 44, the last term of licence payments for AWN and True TUC at 60 billion baht each for 900MHz, originally due in 2020, will be due in 2025 -- adding another five-year instalment period. Total Access Communication (DTAC), through subsidiary DTAC Trinet, also had the last term of its 900MHz licence payment of 30 billion baht delayed from 2021 to 2026.
DTAC Trinet won the 900MHz licence in an auction last year. DTAC's licence comprises 5MHz of spectrum bandwidth on the 900MHz range, compared with 10MHz each for AIS's and TUC's licences.
Mr Pisut said the final payment instalment for the 900MHz licence wouldn't pressure AIS, as the company has prepared a budget for it by cutting dividend payments for years.
AIS wants a 700MHz licence to ensure that it won't miss the 5G bandwagon, he said.
"Holding a licence for the 700MHz range is not just a spectrum licence, but the holder can claim that the move is to pave the way for the upcoming 5G technology in the future," Mr Pisut said.
AIS now holds the highest spectrum bandwidth through a variety of spectrum ranges compared with rivals, but he said the company could suffer a setback if it fails to buy the 700MHz licence, as TUC could claim first-mover status in 5G.
The current standard of 5G spectrum ranges set by the International Telecommunication Union comprises 700MHz for low band, 3500MHz for middle band, and 26GHz and 28GHz for high band.
AIS now holds 60MHz of bandwidth through the 900-, 1800- and 2100MHz ranges. TUC holds 55MHz of bandwidth through the 850-, 900-, 1800- and 2100MHz ranges, while DTAC has 50MHz of bandwidth through the 1800-, 2100- and 2300MHz ranges.
